Big History: The Big Bang, Life on Earth, and the Rise of Humanity

Lecture 46: The Next 100 Years

Yet blocking rising consumption can only lock in existing inequalities and

create new conÀ icts. And, as the U.S. learned in September 2001, modern

weaponry allows even small groups to inÀ ict terrible damage. Can global

consumption slow in a capitalist world? Does not the logic of consumer

capitalism require endless growth throughout the world?

There are also more hopeful trends. Global population growth is slowing as

a result of the “demographic transition.” As the proportion of peasants has

declined and living standards have risen, fertility rates have fallen throughout

the world. By the 1980s, fertility levels had fallen to the “replacement level”

of 2.1 children per woman in most developed industrialized countries. But

rates of population growth are also falling in poorer countries. In the 1960s,

global growth rates were over 2% per annum.

By 2005 they had fallen to under 1.2% per

annum, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

These trends suggest that by the middle of

this century, global population may level out

at 8 or 9 billion people, rather than the 12–16

billion many had predicted in the 1980s.

Since the 1960s, ecological awareness has

increased. Most governments have agencies

concerned with environmental issues,

there are many nongovernmental agencies

concerned with environmental issues, and

there have been two international environmental summits, in Rio in 1992 and

in Johannesburg in 2002. There have also been some notable successes, such

as the 1988 international agreement to reduce production of CFCs because

they damage the ozone layer. Despite the existence of nuclear weapons since

1945, we have avoided a global nuclear war.

Capitalism may turn out to be part of the solution as well as part of the

problem. Recent centuries have shown capitalism’s astonishing capacity

to adapt to change and generate social and technological solutions to

new problems. Capitalism is particularly good at reacting to scarcities by

The collective brain

of modern humanity,

magni¿ ed by billions of

networked computers,

is the most powerful

problem-solving entity

we know of.