The Next Millennium and the Remote Future .................................

Lecture 47

Is it possible that the dangerous knowledge that accumulates within

a species like ours that’s capable of collective learning is bound to

eventually outweigh the more creative knowledge that such species

generate? Or is it simply that such a species is eventually bound to

construct societies of such complexity that they’re not sustainable?

N

ow we return to larger spatial and temporal scales. We consider ¿ rst
the next millennium. Then we consider the rest of time, asking about
the future of the Earth, the galaxy, and the Universe as a whole.
Oddly, we will see that it is easier to discuss the remote future than the next
millennium. On the scale of a millennium or so, we have far more questions
than answers! Human societies are so complex that, even if we can identify
some trends, we know of none that are certain to continue for more than a
few decades. All we can really do is to play with different scenarios.

Some scenarios are disastrous for humans and perhaps for the entire
biosphere. In A Canticle for Leibowitz (1st published in 1959), Walter M.
Miller imagined a future in which nuclear weapons were developed and
used, then redeveloped and used again. Is this the fate of all species capable
of “collective learning”? Is there a necessary limit to collective learning?
Could that be why we have failed to detect other species like ourselves?

Geologists now understand that the Earth’s history has been interrupted by
periodic asteroid impacts such as those that killed off the dinosaurs. Though
astronomers can now keep an eye on potentially dangerous objects, we do
not yet have the means to protect ourselves adequately from such impacts.

Some scenarios are more optimistic. Perhaps, after a near brush with disaster
(such as the regional nuclear wars described in the future histories written by
Wagar as well as Stableford and Langford), we will avoid the fate of Easter
Island. We will slow consumption levels and ¿ nd new ways of living that can
be satisfying without putting excessive pressure on the environment. If our
ancestors avoid disaster, the “Modern era” may turn out to be the prelude to