Barron's - USA (2021-11-22)

(Antfer) #1

November 22, 2021 BARRON’S 33


INCOME INVESTING


Global Dividends Set


Third-Quarter Record


A


fter a steep decline during the


pandemic, global dividends con-


tinued their comeback in the third


quarter, and investors should ex-


pect more good news in 2022.


“The U.S. kept chugging along, whereas


globally it was a big rebound,” says Matt


Peron, director of research at asset man-


ager Janus Henderson.


The firm publishes a quarterly survey of


dividend trends, based on the 1,200 largest


publicly traded companies globally as of the


beginning of each calendar year.


In the U.S., plenty of companies cut or


suspended their dividends during the pan-


demic in sectors such as energy, but the


overall trend was stable. In other regions,


notably Europe, dividend cuts and suspen-


sions were much more widespread due in


part to regulatory mandates.


Still, global dividends, which totaled


$403.5 billion, had their best third quarter


ever—up 19.5% year over year.


In all of 2020, when the pandemic hit,


dividends totaled roughly $1.3 trillion,


down about 12% from 2019 levels.


Third-quarter 2021 dividends rose by


10% in the U.S., helped by big financial


companies such asMorgan Stanley


(ticker: MS) that saw an easing on payout


restrictions from the Federal Reserve. The


company doubled its quarterly dividend to


70 cents a share over the summer.


Dividends were on the upswing in most


regions in the third quarter, with Japan up


26%, Asia Pacific excluding Japan up 38%,


and the United Kingdom up nearly 90%.


Continental Europe saw a 34% decline.


Janus Henderson notes that only about 10%


of European company dividends get paid out


in the third quarters, adding that payouts


there “have mostly returned to their usual


timetable.” Emerging markets saw an in-


crease of 31%. (Those tallies are in dollars.)


As a result of the overall strong third-


quarter performance for dividends, Janus


Henderson raised its forecast for 2021 by


about 2%, to $1.46 trillion, which would be


a calendar-year record.


Peron says he expects dividends to con-


tinue to increase, “though not at this torrid


pace,” powered by a recovery in economic


growth and earnings over the next couple


of years.


Some 97% of the U.S. companies in the


survey raised or maintained their divi-


dends in the quarter, he says. Globally,


90% raised or maintained their dividends.


In the U.S. and overseas, two areas that


stood out for dividend rebounds were the


mining and financial sectors.


During the third quarter, mining com-


panyBHP Group(BHP.UK) paid a record


final dividend of $2 a share, up from 55


cents a year earlier.


Janus Henderson notes that the coun-


tries with the biggest dividend cuts during


the pandemic experienced the largest


rebound—in particular the U.K. and Aus-


tralia. For U.S. companies in the quarterly


survey, dividends totaled $130.7 billion in


the quarter, a third-quarter record.


The largest U.S. dividend payers during


the quarter includedAT&T(T),Apple


(AAPL),Microsoft(MSFT), andExxon


Mobil(XOM). Last month, Exxon declared


a quarterly dividend increase, the first time


it had done so since April of 2018. The com-


pany plans to boost its quarterly payout by


a penny, to 88 cents a share.


The surge in dividends has been a tail-


wind for many equity income investors.


Aaron Clark, a portfolio manager for


GW&K Investment Management’s all-cap


and dividend-focused strategy, sees plenty


of upside for dividend stocks.


“It’s probably the best place to find in-


come right now,” Clark says. “You can get


yields comfortably in the 2.5% to 3% range


that are growing probably close to double


digits, and it’s hard to replicate that any-


where else in the income world.”B


By Lawrence C. Strauss




 



   















 



 


 
  


 






  


 

 

 
 












 


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