Project Finance: Practical Case Studies

(Frankie) #1
QUEZON POWER, THE PHILIPPINES

Exhibit 11.5


Base case projections


Year ending
31 December 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2007 2008


Net capacity (kW) 440,000 440,000 440,000 440,000 440,000 440,000 440,000 440,000 440,000
Equivalent availability
factor (%)(1) 80 83 86 86 86 86 86 86 86
Annual energy sales (MWh)(2) 3,029,558 3,143,167 3,256,775 3,256,775 3,256,775 3,256,775 3,256,775 3,256,775 3,256,775
MGEQ (MWh)(3) 2,991,690 3,105,297 3,256,775 3,256,775 3,256,775 3,256,775 3,256,775 3,256,775 3,256,775
Heat rate (Btu/kWh)(4) 10,040 10,040 10,040 10,040 10,040 10,040 10,040 10,040 10,040
Average heat content
(Btu/Ib HHV)(5) 9,900 9,900 9,900 9,900 9,900 9,900 9,900 9,900 9,900
Fuel consumption (tonnes) 1,421,300 1,474,700 1,528,000 1,528,000 1,528,000 1,528,000 1,528,000 1,528,000 1,528,000
Fuel purchases (tonnes)(6) 1,446,200 1,500,500 1,554,700 1,554,700 1,554,700 1,554,700 1,554,700 1,554,700 1,554,700
Lime (tonnes)(7) 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300
Ash (tonnes)(8) 37,000 38,300 39,700 39,700 39,700 39,700 39,700 39,700 39,700


Commodity prices


US general inflation (%)(9) 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Philippine general
inflation (%)(10) 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
Philippine exchange rate
(pesos/US$)(11) 30.87 32.48 34.18 35.97 37.86 39.84 41.93 44.12 46.43
Electricity
Capacity (US$/MWh)(12) 29.98 29.98 29.98 29.98 29.98 29.98 29.98 29.98 29.98
Energy (US$/MWh)(13) 20.20 20.71 21.24 21.78 22.77 23.35 23.95 24.57 25.21
O&M (US$/MWh)(14) 20.61 21.25 21.92 22.58 23.29 24.01 24.76 25.53 26.31
Lime (US$/tonne)(15) 156.97 161.83 166.85 172.02 177.35 182.85 188.52 194.36 200.39
Fuel (US$/tonne)(16) 35.82 36.71 37.62 38.56 40.42 41.44 42.49 43.56 44.67
Fuel transport (US$/tonne)(17) 5.80 5.96 6.13 6.30 6.48 6.66 6.85 7.05 7.25
Ash (US$/tonne)(18) 10.27 10.59 10.92 11.26 11.61 11.97 12.34 12.72 13.12


Operating revenues (US$ thousand)


Electricity revenues
Capacity revenues 89,691 93,097 97,638 97,638 97,638 97,638 97,638 97,638 97,638
Energy revenues 60,438 64,319 69,168 70,931 74,151 76,044 78,005 80,020 82,092
O&M revenues 61,659 65,987 71,389 73,538 75,851 78,196 80,638 83,145 85,686
Transmission line (19) 8,288 8,601 9,017 9,026 9,036 9,046 9,057 9,069 9,080
Shortfall payments (20) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Excess payments (21) 2,340 2,384 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Franchise tax (22) 4,448 4,688 4,944 5,023 5,134 5,218 5,307 5,397 5,490
Interest income (23) 0 58 144 297 294 147 181 338 551
Total operating revenues 226,864 239,134 252,300 256,453 262,104 266,289 270,826 275,607 280,537

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