Part 1 – Understanding human augmentation

has also been supercharged by the pervasiveness of mass media, sensors, data

and global communications. This has led to tactical events having almost immediate

strategic consequences and vice versa.

c. The speed of war is increasingly beyond that in which humans can observe,

orientate, decide and act. In physical terms, hypersonics and space-based

capabilities will see missiles fly near the Earth at a mile per second; too fast for

humans to make crucial decisions on their own.^1 In conceptual terms, cyber and

information operations are fought at the velocity of fibre optics.

Section 4 – Humans and future warfare

As long as humans have an advantage in the areas of creativity and

judgment, we will have a major role at the frontlines. ... when missions

have a significant degree of uncertainty, require the ability to adapt on the

fly, and have the chance for major reversals, the adaptability of humans is

invaluable.^2

Technology offers significant advantages, but there are many instances throughout history

where people, not machines, have proven to be decisive. Perhaps the most profound

example of the value of contextualised human judgement is Stanislav Petrov’s actions

in 1983 where he averted a nuclear war by overriding a Soviet automated early warning

system that had incorrectly identified a United States missile attack.^3 Today, the risk of

over-relying on technology has perhaps never been greater because its pervasiveness has

conditioned us to rely on algorithmic judgements in so many aspects of our daily lives.

We must remind ourselves that people have, at least for now, the edge over machines,

and will continue to have a role in future war for three key reasons.

a. War is, by its nature, a human endeavour. So far, technology has not changed

the nature of war, but it has changed its character. People will still be central to war

but the way in which they play this role will change. This may mean less combat

troops and more cyber specialists, drone operators and computer technicians in the

future, but the stress and threat to life will likely remain, albeit manifested in different

ways. Warfare is likely to be more ‘remote’ and psycho-cyber intensive, but the

aftermath will still require ‘boots on the ground’.

b. Humans remain unrivalled (for now) in their general intelligence. When the

unforeseen happens, people will be required to step in to fulfil the mission, avert

crises or seize unforeseen opportunities.

c. Technology will become increasingly capable, but society will influence the

pace and extent of its adoption. Bravery, skill and honour have been ingrained into

our societies for centuries and this will not change overnight. Outsourcing war to

machines so that blood is not spilt might reduce the human cost of conflict, but

inadvertently increase its likelihood.

1 Fryer-Biggs, Z., The Atlantic.com, (2019), ‘Coming Soon to a Batlefield: Robots That Can Kill’.

2 Herr, A., National Defense University Press, (2015), ‘Will Humans Matter in the Wars of 2030?’.

3 See Stanislav Petrov’s obituary in the New York Times for a more detailed account.

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