Annex A – Methodology
Project methodology
This annex sets out the method used in producing Human Augmentation – The Dawn
of a New Paradigm. It is hoped that by setting out the methodology of this strategic
implications project readers can understand how the conclusions in Parts 1 to 6 were
reached. It is also hoped that readers will learn from this method and identify insights that
can improve their own work.Scenario creation
The first step in this project was creating suitable scenarios. The scenarios needed to
generate defence and security insights and cover the technological possibilities as far
as possible. To ensure the scenarios considered all aspects they also needed to cover
social, economic, political, ethical and individual aspects. In keeping with the strategic
analysis programme the time horizon was 30 years in the future – 2050. In addition
to representing plausible futures, the scenarios provided the starting point for deriving
implications with a strategic, security and defence focus.Scenario analysis
Scenario analysis is a useful method to identify the multiple ways the future might evolve.
This technique can help decision-makers develop plans to exploit opportunities, reduce
uncertainties and manage future risks. Additionally, monitoring the indicators embedded
in various scenarios can create early warning signals of likely future trajectories. Scenario
analysis is most useful when a situation is complex or single predictions are too uncertain
to trust – this human augmentation project is just such a situation.If used in the initial stages of policy formulation or when developing long-term corporate
strategies, scenario analysis can have a significant impact on decision-making. The
method provides a set of plausible and possible futures for which decision-makers should
consider. It is also useful as a tool for confronting decision-makers and stakeholders
with alternative futures which they should make plans for. Engaging stakeholders and
decision-makers in the scenario analysis process can generate commitment for the
projects, save time and produce more useable results.Scenario creation can be subdivided into different phases, including:- investigation (for example, horizon scanning);
- analysis (for example, driver identification, uncertainty analysis and cross-impact
analysis); - projection (for example, scenario writing);
- implications (for example, back casting and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities and threats) analysis);