Annex A – Project methodology
- communication (for example, trend reporting); and
- monitoring (for example, trend monitoring).
All the scenarios in this project used the first four phases.Using scenarios offers the possibility to describe many different possible and plausible
futures. Comparing multiple scenarios in the analysis phase makes it easy to identify
factors or drivers that are essential for future developments, whether desired or not. In
addition, scenario analysis can be used to test assumptions about the future or even find
and warn against critical developments.A very important advantage of scenario analysis is the possible involvement of
decision-makers and stakeholders in the scenario process. This promotes a high level
of understanding for the various possible future developments and achieves a high
commitment to the actual work.Investigation and analysis
The first step towards creating the human augmentation-related scenarios was to acquire
the basic factors – called influence factors. Workshops were held in which human
augmentation-related ideas were written on ‘sticky notes’ and clustered into factors
according to perceived commonality. The outcome of this process was a large number
of initial factors that varied in nature and scope. These factors were not necessarily
independent, and in some cases had multiple, different meanings. An example is the
economy factor which originally referred to both revenue and cost, the former being
a driver and the latter a consequence. Potential relationships were identified using an
approach inspired by systems engineering^48 and used the doctrine, organisation, training,
materiel, leadership and education, personnel, and facilities (DOTMLPF)^49 framework to
analyse the initial factors.Human augmentation framework
The analysis showed that the factors could be grouped in to five major blocks of factors:
drivers/incentive; prerequisites; enablers/disablers (composed of three components:
frameworks, views and regulators); disruptors; and possibilities/risks. These blocks
represent: the drivers for human augmentation (why it is needed/wanted); the
prerequisites for its development (including those factors that may hinder development);
the enablers/disablers (structures needed for its realisation); unknown events that may
occur (disruptors, possibilities and risks) along the way; and, finally, the outcome (the
realisation of human augmentation). The grouping provided a structure to show how
the various factors were linked. The relationships at the higher level have a temporal
component and can be understood as a regulatory process that works (primarily) in a
sequential manner.48 ISO 21500 guidance on project management is an international standard developed by the International
Organization for Standardization.
49 This framework is used by the United States Department of Defense and is defined in The Joint
Capabilities Integration Development System.