The Economist - 04.12.2021

TheEconomistDecember4th 2021 BriefingTheOmicronvariant 25

riesofthevariousvaccine­developers.
UgurSahin,thebossofBioNTech,one
ofthetwocompaniesthathavedeveloped
mrnavaccinesagainstthevirus,accepts
thatbecausethevaccinesgetcellstomake
spikeproteinsaccordingtotherecipeused
intheearliestgenomestobesequenced,
theneutralisingeffectofvaccine­elicited
antibodieswillbelowerforOmicron.But
headdsthatit isnotclearhowgreatthere­
ductionwillbe,andpointsoutthatimmu­
nological protection is not provided by
antibodiesalone.
Vaccinesengagetheimmunesystem’s
T­cellsaswell.Thesearelymphocytesthat
respondnotjusttofinishedproteins,as
antibodiesdo;theyalsorecogniseprotein
fragments.Because97%ofOmicron se­
quencesareidenticaltotheoriginalvirus
foundinWuhan,DrSahinsays,theseT­
cellresponses shouldstillwork.He ex­
pects that most fully vaccinated people
withboosters should at worst fall only
moderatelyillifinfectedwithOmicron.
AlessandroSette,animmunologistatthe
LaJollaInstituteforImmunology andhis
colleagues have shown thatT­cells pre­
serve 93­97% oftheir targetingcapacity
whenfacedwitha newvariant.
Nonetheless,BioNTechisworkingona
vaccine using mrna that describes the
Omicronspike.SoisModerna.Bothcom­
panieshavebeendownthisroadbefore,
developingtailoredvaccinesagainstBeta
andDelta.Theydidnotgointoproduction
becausetheydidnot,intheend,provenec­
essary;theoriginalvaccinesheldupwell.
Whetherthesamelookslikelytobetrue
forOmicronshouldbeknown,thecom­
paniessay,ina matterofweeks.
Themakersofvaccinesthatuseother
approachestotheirtradearealsoexplor­
ingthepossibilities ofdoingsomething
specifictoOmicron;butthemrnatech­
nologyisinherentlyquickertoworkwith,
andbeingfirstonthemarketwouldbea
hugeadvantage.MorganStanley,abank,
reckonsthatbothfirmscouldmakeabout
6bnboostershotsnextyear.

WhenstudyingvaccinesagainstBeta

andDelta,bothfirmsworkedtodevelop

proceduresthatwouldallowmodifiedver­

sionsoftheirjabstobeapprovedquickly

byregulators.DrSahinsaysthatifa new

vaccinedoes turnout tobe needed,his

firmcoulddeliveritwithin 100 days:the

estimateincludesregulatoryapproval.The

time takento changeproduction proce­

dures,though,wouldmakeit unlikelythat

substantialquantitiesofanOmicron­tar­

getingvaccinecouldbeproducedbefore

themiddleof2022.Changinga production

line from one vaccine to another also

meansa halttovaccineoutputonthatline.

Economicimmunity

Thefactthatoldvaccineswillstillworkto

atleastsomeextentandnewonesarepos­

sibleisreassuring.Butif,througha mix­

tureofhightransmissibilityandimmune

evasion,Omicrondoesprovebetteratin­

fecting, andreinfecting,theworld, then

somebumpymonthscouldlieahead,not

leastfortheeconomy.JeromePowell,the

chairmanofAmerica’sFederalReserve,has

suggestedthatifpeoplebecamescaredof

thevarianttheymightdropoutofthela­

bour force. That could worsen labour

shortagesandleadto wagegrowth.Ifit

weretohitVietnam,orevenChina,hard,

thesupply­chaincrunchcouldworsen.

Butthough many wonks are cutting

their global­growth forecasts by a few

tenthsofa percentagepointnoneofthem

isextendingthey­axisbelowzero,asthey

hadtobackinMarch2020.Accordingtoa

strawpollconductedbyDeutscheBankon

November29th,just10%ofparticipantsin

thefinancialmarketsthoughtthatthenew

variantwouldbethe“biggesttopicinfi­

nancialmarketsatyear­end”.Thisisbe­

causetheeconomyhasevolveda levelof

tolerancetothedisease;itnolongerdis­

ruptslifeasmuchasitusedto,andsogiv­

enlevelsofcovidcases,hospitaladmis­

sionsandevendeathshavelessofaneco­

nomicimpactthantheyoncedid.

Analysis by Goldman Sachs, a bank,

combines data on mandated social­

distancingmeasuresandtheamountof

adherencetheymeetwithintoan“effec­

tive­lockdownindex”. The previous two

significant variants, Alpha and Delta,

causedlockdownstotighten,buttoa sig­

nificantlylowerlevelthaninearly 2020

(seechart2).Inthepastninemonthsonly

a handfulofcountrieshavelockeddownas

stringentlyastheydidin2020.

Developed­worldgovernmentsareless

willingto impose forceful measures,in

partbecausevaccines havesubstantially

weakenedthelinkbetweencasesandhos­

pitaladmissionsanddeath.Betterdrugs

andtreatmentshavealsohelped,andnew

antiviral pills from Merck and Pfizer

should improve things further—though

existing therapies based on mass­pro­

duced antibodies may be less effective

whenfacedwithOmicron’sspike.

Theyhavealsofoundthatsomemea­

sures,includingcurfewsandschoolclo­

sures,bringfewbenefitsatahighcost;

theyarethusnolongerpartofthetoolkit.

Morepolicymakersalsoacknowledgethat

covidisbecomingendemic,raisingthebar

forinterventions.InAmericamanystate

governorshavepromisednevertoimple­

mentlockdownsagain.OnNovember30th

the Britishgovernment resisted sugges­

tionsfromtheirmedicaladvisersthatpeo­

pleshouldlimitsocialcontacts.

Publiccompliancewithrestrictionshas

alsofaded.Peoplearelessscaredofthevi­

rus ormore resignedto their fate. The

NetherlandsandAustriaaretechnicallyin

lockdown,butpeopleareabouttwiceas

mobileastheywereatthebeginningof

2021,accordingto ananalysisofGoogle

mobilitydataonvisitstositesofretailand

recreation, workplacesandpublic­trans­

portstopscarriedoutbyTheEconomist.

And whatsocialdistancing stillgoes

on,eitherbecauseofrulesorchoices,has

lesseconomiccostthanitusedto.People

canworkmoreefficientlyfromhomebe­

causetheyhaveinvestedintechnologies

thatenablethemtoimprovetheirvirtual

office.Businessesarealsobetterable to

copewithlockdowns.Retailershaveim­

provedtheironlineofferings,whereasres­

taurantsandbarsdomoretakeaway.Inthe

middleof 2020 a ten­pointtighteningin

Goldman’sindexprovokeda 6%declinein

gdp. Buttheeffect weakened insubse­

quentmonths;it nowsitsatabout2%.

InthecomingdaysandweeksOmicron

willshowitstruecolours.Itcouldproveto

beextremely dangerous.Butin thetwo

years since peoplein Wuhanstarted to

comedown withastrangenewdisease,

muchhasbeenlearnedaboutsars­cov­2,

howtotreatit andhowtolivewithit.That,

atleast,shouldbesomecomfort.n

Superspreader?

Sources:GISAID;pressreports *Adatabase of SARS-CoV-2 genomes

Confirmed

Omicroncases

ToDecember2nd 2021

1

50

200

Sharedsequencewith

GISAID*inpast 21 days SouthAfrica18

Britain 2

Hong Kong 8

Explore our interactive at

economist.com /tracking-coronavirus