The Economist - 04.12.2021

30 Britain TheEconomistDecember4th 2021

I

nshortorder, HongKongershave

becomeoneofBritain’smostimpor­

tantimmigrantgroups.BetweenJanuary

andtheendofSeptember,almost89,000

appliedtosettleundera newvisa

schemecreatedinresponsetotherapid

erosionofcivillibertiesintheprovince.

Forcomparison,184,000peoplefromall

countriesappliedforworkvisasinthe

firstninemonthsofthisyear.Howmany

moreHongKongersmightcome?

A studyreleasedonDecember2nd

providesthebestclueyet.Man­yeeKan

ofOxfordUniversitysurveyed1,000

HongKongerswithBritishNational

Overseas(bno) statusfortheMigration

Observatory,a think­tank.Shefoundthat

justover6%hadalreadyappliedtothe

Britishschemeorplannedto.Since

about2.9mHongKongershavebno

status,thatimplies186,000people,plus

theirdependants.Remarkably,a further

32%wereconsideringit.Somearevague

aboutwhentheymightapply,which

suggeststheyarenotserious—atleast,

notyet.Butabout380,000couldapply

withinthenextfiveyears.

Theyarethesortofimmigrantsany

countryshouldbehappytoreceive.Half

ofthoseplanningtoapplyorconsidering

doingsowereborninthe1980sor1990s

(bnostatuswasgivenonlytopeople

bornbeforeBritainrelinquishedcontrol

ofHongKongin1997).Theyaremore

likelytobeuniversity­educatedthanthe

HongKongerswhoplantostay,and

morelikelytobefull­timeemployees.A

slightmajorityarewomen.

Thoseplanningorponderinga move

aredisgruntledaboutthegovernanceof

HongKong.Theyexpecttobefreerin

Britain,notmoreprosperous:63%think

theirearningswillfall.Theyareprobably

right,atleastabouttheshortterm.Even

skilledmigrantstendtostruggleatfirstif

theycomewithoutjoboffers,andmany

HongKongimmigrantsarestillwaiting

forNationalInsurancenumbers.A sur­

veyinAugustbyHongkongersinBritain,

a self­helpgroup,foundthatlessthana

thirdhadfoundjobsinthecountry.

Buttheirfortuneswillsurelychange.

ManyoftheAsianswhofledeastAfrica

inthe1960sand1970scamewithnoth­

ing,andtookyearstofindtheirfeet.

Theyendedupbettereducatedthanthe

averageBriton,andmorelikelytohold

topmanagerialandprofessionaljobs.

Immigration

Straws in the wind

ManymoreHongKongersarelikelytomovetoBritain.Good

Blowing easterly

Hong Kong , residents with BNO* status

February-April 2021

Source:MigrationObservatory *British National Overseas

University-educated

Bornafter190

Dissatisfiedwith

freedomofspeech

Full-timeemployed

6050403020100

Considering moving to Britain

% who are

University-educated

Bornafter190

Dissatisfiedwith

freedomofspeech

Full-timeemployed

6050403020100

Planning to stay in Hong Kong

% who are

Property

Catchinguponthe

capital

T

hatlondon’srentalmarketrunsina

differentgeartotherestofthecoun­

try’sisnewstonoone.Riflethroughestate

agents’offeringsforMayfair,a plutocrats’

playgroundintheWestEnd,andyouare

spoiltfora choiceofone­bedflatsthatcan

berentedforupwardsof£10,000($13,450)

a month. Come down from the strato­

sphereandrentsarestilleye­watering.In

2020 themedianLondonhouseholdrent­

ingitshomefroma privatelandlordspent

38%ofgrossincome,accordingtotheOf­

ficeforNationalStatistics.InEnglandasa

whole,thecomparablefigurewas23%.

Recently,therestofBritainhasbeen

catchingup.A reportbyZoopla,a property

website,foundthatratesforLondonrent­

alsagreed to inSeptember were higher

thanayearpreviously. That broke a15­

month­longtrendthathasleftthem5%be­

lowtheirpre­pandemiclevel.Meanwhile

rentsoutsidethem 25 notonlykeptgrow­

ing,butstartedtodosoatthefastestrate

sincethefinancialcrisis(seechart).Even

asthecapitalbecamemarginallymoreaf­

fordable,everywhereelsebecamelessso.

Partofthedivergencewascausedby

fallingdemandforhousinginurbanareas,

aslocked­downworkersinsearchofspace

andgardensdecampedtothecountryside.

Purbeck,Dorset,becameBritain’shottest

district,withrentssoaringbymorethan

16% intheyeartoSeptember.Butcities

otherthan Londongot a boostas well.

FromBirminghamandBristoltoLeedsand

Liverpool,takingthewholepandemicin

theround,rentswentup.

Inthefaceofsuccessiveshutdowns,ex­

plainsGrainne Gilmore ofZoopla,most

citiesseemedtobreatheout.Demandfor

rentalsintheirinnerzoneshollowedout

asthoseabletomoveeasilyheadedtothe

suburbs. Nowthereverse is happening,

withdemandinmanycitycentresduring

thethirdquarterofthisyearrunningat

more thandouble the level of thefirst

quarter.Butdespitetenants’shiftingpref­

erencesaboutlocality,inmostcitiesover­

alldemand remainedabove asupplyof

rentalpropertiesthathasbeensubduedby

lowerbuy­to­letinvestment.Asaresult,

rentsmostlywentup.

London appears to have breathed in

againmoreshallowly.Asurveypublished

bytheNationalResidentialLandlordsAs­

sociationonNovember26thfoundthatde­

mandforrentalsinthecapitalrosesignif­

icantlyinthethirdquarterof2021.Butit

rose by more inthe south­west,south­

east,WalesandWestMidlands.Mobility

datafromGooglesuggestthatvisitstoboth

workplacesandrecreationalvenuessuch

asbars,restaurantsandshoppingcentres

inLondonremainfurtherfromtheirpre­

pandemiclevelsthaninManchester,Bir­

mingham,LeedsandLiverpool.

Atthesametime,propertieslistedon

London’srentalmarketnowtakelongerto

besnappedupthanintherestofBritain.

Thatisanotherreversalofthepre­2020

state ofaffairs. Successive governments

havestressed theneed to rebalancethe

countryawayfromitscapitalbutfailedto

doso.Apandemicseemstohaveshifted

thingsinthatdirection.n

Britain’srentalmarketishotter

outsidethem 25 thanwithinit

Non-capital gains

Britain, rents, % change on a year earlier

Source:Zoopla

10

5

0

-5

-10

2118161412102008

Rest of Britain

London