The Economist - 04.12.2021

The Economist December 4th 2021 Britain 31

SinnFein

United, across the border

T

heconflicthadbeenbloody,withno
endinsight.ButmanyintheIrishRe­
publicanArmy(ira) wantedtokeeptrying
todrivetheBritishoutofNorthernIreland
byforce.Theyhadnointerestinitssister
party,SinnFein,contestingelections,be­
lievingthatthiswouldlegitimisethesta­
tusquo.Buttheparty’sleader,GerryAd­
ams,wantedtoopena secondfrontinthe
fight—onethatdidn’tinvolveguns.
In 1981 oneofhisadvisers,DannyMorri­
son,askeda questionata SinnFeinmeet­
ing:“Whoherereallybelieveswecanwin
thewarthroughtheballotbox?”Anda sec­
ond:“Willanyonehereobjectif,witha bal­
lotpaperinthishandandanArmalite[ri­
fle]intheother,wetakepowerinIreland?”
Thistwo­foldstrategyhelduntilthepeace
accordsignedonGoodFriday1998.Today
SinnFeinisthelargestandwealthiestpar­
tyontheislandofIreland.IfandwhenIre­
landiseverreunifieddependsonmuch
morethanitselectoralperformance.But
theballotbox’sascendancyovertheArma­
litehasreshapedboththeparty,andpoli­
ticsandpolicyonbothsidesoftheborder.
Inthenorth,SinnFeinhasbeeningov­
ernmentsince1999,andisexpectedtobe­
comethelargestpartyandleadthegovern­
mentafterelectionsinMay.In 2020 itbe­
cametheRepublic’smostpopularparty,
with24.5%ofthevote.Itspathtocoalition
wasblockedbyFiannaFailandFineGael,
bigcentre­rightparties,butitlookslikely
toentergovernmentinthecomingyears.
Itsexclusionfromgovernmentreflect­
eda mainstreamconsensusthatitspara­
militaryhistoryandformerMarxisteco­
nomicpoliciesputitbeyondthepale.But
thatmaybefracturing,saysDiarmaidFer­
riter,a historianatUniversityCollegeDub­
lin. Elections are due by May 2025, by
whichpointFineGaelmaybereadyfora
restafter 14 yearsin office.FiannaFail,
whichfirstcametopowerin 1932 asa de­
fenderofiraviolence,islikelytowantto
stayingovernment.Itandsomesmaller
partiesmaydecidethatadealwithSinn
Feinwouldnotbetoohigha pricetopay.
Thepartyhasanarmyofactivists,both
formeriramemberswhoshiftedintopoli­
ticsanda muchlargergroupwhojoined
afterthekillingstopped.Ithasreachedbe­
yond the pro­ira vote by appealing to
youngpeoplepricedoutofhousing.“Our
programmeforgovernmentwillbeunlike
anyseeninthestateuptonow,”promises
EoinÓBroin,itsshadowhousingminister

inDublin.It proposestoendtheRepublic’s

relianceonprivatebuildersandlandlords,

andtoinvestin20,000newsocial­hous­

ingunitsa year—“thelargestpublichouse­

buildingprogrammeinthehistoryof  the

state”. It has pledged to spend €1.2bn

($1.4bn)overtwotermsofgovernment  to

introducefree, universalprimaryhealth

care,andtostopstate­salarieddoctors and

privatehealth­insurancecompanies  from

runningsidepracticesinpublichospitals.

ItsMarxismhasgonethesameway  as

itsdefenceofviolence.In 1979 MrAdams,

thepre­eminentleaderofRepublicanism

foralmosthalfa centuryuntilhestepped

downfromthepartyleadershipin2018, de­

claredthatSinnFeinwas“opposed  to  big

business, to multinationalism...to  all

formsandallmanifestationsofimperial­

ismandcapitalism”.NowPearseDoherty,

its finance spokesman in Dublin,  says

multinationals“knowthatSinnFein  isn’t

goingtogoafterthem”.Itsministers in the

northhavesignedoffonprivatecompa­

niesbuildingandmanagingschools,  and

calledfora bigcuttocorporationtax.

But paramilitary discipline has  en­

dured.Irishsecurityauthoritieshave said

itwasfunded,atleastinpart,bythe ira’s

criminalassets(SinnFeindeniesthis). Its

criticsallegethatpowerlieswithshadowy

figurestrustedbytheira, notwithelected

politicians. Five years ago evidence

emergedoftheSinnFeinfinanceminister

inthenorthaskinga veteranunelected Re­

publicantrusted by theirawhether  he

would be “content” for the minister to take

a  decision  worth  hundreds  of  millions  of

pounds.  A  year  earlier  a  security  assess­

ment—which  police  in  Northern  Ireland

say  still  stands—concluded  that  Sinn

Fein’s  members  believe  the  ira still  con­

trols the party and retains guns. 

For  its  part,  Sinn  Fein  denies  that  the

ira still exists, let alone acts as the power

behind  the  throne.  Its  aims,  however,  re­

main  unchanged.  Every  party  in  the  Re­

public  says  it  seeks  a  united  Ireland;  only

Sinn Fein makes reunification its priority.

Yet it remains to be seen whether the elec­

torate would be willing to bear the costs. 

Opinion polls show strong support for a

united Ireland: one in May found that 67%

of voters favoured reunification, with only

16% opposed. But many southerners would

balk at subsidising the north to the tune of

£10bn ($13.3bn) a year, as mainland Britain

does  now.  Only  22%  said  they  would  be

prepared to pay more tax to fund reunifica­

tion, while 63% said they would not.

Pressing for reunification might there­

fore  cost  Sinn  Fein  some  of  its  social­

democratic  support  in  the  Republic,  as

well  as  alienating  a  growing  constituency

in  the  north  that  sees  itself  as  neither

nationalist  or  unionist,  and  might  be  at­

tracted to the secular, crowd­pleasing poli­

cies it now offers south of the border. Mr Ó

Broin suggests that his party would seek to

lead public opinion, with a dedicated unit

to  steer  discussions  about  what  unity

might look like, and its potential benefits.

Mr  Morrison,  who  coined  the  “ballot

box  and  Armalite”  phrase,  is  now  68.  He

sidesteps a question about whether he will

live to see a United Ireland. “The state that I

live in is not the state that I grew up in,” he

says. “I no longer feel vanquished.” Ireland

has  indeed  changed  in  the  past  four  de­

cades. So, in their search for respectability

and electoral success both northandsouth

of the border, have Republicans.n

B ELFAST AND DUBLIN
The quest for respectability—and votes—has transformed Republicanism

And so they did