range; others claim that consumers will accept limitations once they examine and better
understand their actual travel patterns and requirements.With the possible exception of electric vehicles, there are some configurations of each of the
vehicle types examined that appear to have the potential to match or exceed the general
performance characteristics of both current vehicles and the baseline vehicles that, if OTA’s
projections are correct, will form “the competition” in future years. OTA has chosen to focus on
these “competitive” configurations of the vehicle types in this report, but the reader should
recognize that other configurations that might underperform the baseline vehicles might have
other advantages, particularly in cost. For example, the discussion of EVs concludes that designs
with reduced range and performance can be built at prices that are considerably more competitive
(in first cost) with conventional vehicles than are the more robust vehicles examined in detail.The vehicles examined here are required to satisfy performance requirements for range,
gradeability (ability to climb hills) and acceleration performance; these requirements determine
such parameters as battery size and motor horsepower. Owners judge the value of their vehicles
by a variety of characteristics, however, and these should be understood by those seeking to
evaluate the competitiveness of new designs. For example, the vehicles adopted by the PNGV as
targets--the Taurus, Lumina, and Concorde--as well as most other modem cars and light-duty
trucks, are extremely versatile vehicles with robust performance. Although most of their use is for
lightly loaded, short-distance travel (average auto occupancy is 1.4 occupants per car, average
trip length is 9 miles^4 ), they are also extremely competent as long-distance haulers--filly loaded
with passengers and luggage.There is substantial market evidence that this versatility is highly valued by vehicle buyers.
Automakers have found themselves forced by consumer complaints and poor sales to upgrade
performance on new models and have consistently found purchasers upgrading to more powerful
engines although base engines appear adequate to handle most vehicle tasks. It appears that
purchasers are selecting vehicle size and performance capability based on the most demanding 5
percent of their trips rather than the most common 95 percent--for example, the once or twice
yearly family vacation rather than the daily commute or after-school carpool. If this purchasing
behavior remains the norm, it will have a substantial influence on the types of technologies
introduced into the marketplace and the designs of the vehicles that carry them.
This type of purchasing behavior cannot be assumed to be irreversible, of course. Consumer
surveys performed by the University of California at Davis and others have found that potential
vehicle purchasers who became more knowledgeable about their actual driving patterns often
report they would be willing to purchase limited-capability vehicles (e.g., electrics) if cost were
similar. Some researchers, however, contend that “stated preference” surveys of this type, where
those being surveyed are reporting only their hypothetical behavior, are inherently unreliable and
tend to overstate the likelihood of limited-capability vehicles being sold.
(^4) P.S. Hu and J. Young, Summary of Travel Trends: 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey, FHWA-PL-92-027 (Washington, DC:
Federal Highway Adminstration, March 1992).