Advanced Automotive Technology: Visions of a Super-Efficient Family Car

OTA remains uncertain about the prospects for a large shift in consumer preferences toward
vehicles with limited range or other performance limitations. Where possible, however, its
analyses focus on vehicle designs that can match conventional ICE vehicles in overall
performance. For example, as discussed below, there are virtually limitless variations on potential
configurations for hybrid vehicles, but this report focuses on those hybrids with the fewest
performance limitations.

Technologies Introduced Individually or in Combination

The vehicles examined here are maximum technology vehicles; that is, they combine a wide

range of new advanced technologies in one vehicle. This is distinctly not in the mold of historic

vehicle innovation, which has tended to be more incremental in nature. Generally, new

technologies have been introduced singly, in limited-edition (often luxury) vehicles to test their

readiness for the mass market in a way that limits risks to the automaker. Only after a few years of

such “testing” are new technologies moved into the heart of an automaker’s fleet. Thus, if the

future is like the past, the vehicles examined here may be unrealistic in their capability to model

real world events. The existence of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV),

however, which is attempting to develop such a maximum technology vehicle, the technology-

forcing nature of California’s zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates, and the potential for future

fuel economy regulations may make such vehicles more likely in the future.

Uncertainty in Technology Forecasting

There is now considerable literature evaluating the prospects for substantial advances in

automotive technology. Unfortunately, a reading of this literature leaves the reader with a wide--

and confusing--range of views about the likely timing, cost, and performance of advanced vehicles

and vehicle technologies.

It is useful for the reader to recognize that the history of technology forecasting, and
forecasting in the automotive arena, is rife with failure, particularly when forecasts are aimed at
technologies that are clear departures from those in use at the time of the forecast. Many
technologies that were forecast to be commercialized and to have made extensive inroads in
market share have dropped from the menu of technology options by the target date of the
projection. Others have been added to the menu despite widespread pessimism about their
chances for commercialization or intensive penetration into the fleet. Reasons for incorrect
technology forecasts include:

l the possibility that the market rejected the technology because of its expense or perceived disadvantages

(high rates of failure, adverse effect on noise or ride quality, and so forth), and/or market preferences

may have changed after the forecast was made;

l other technologies that are lower cost or have lower operating expenses may do a better job;