Table 4-8 shows how the costs were calculated for the year 2005 mid-size EV. Battery and
motor/controller costs are as specified in chapter 3, while incremental costs of electric power
steering and heat pump air conditioner over conventional systems were derived from supplier
quotes.^29 Those “costs” are the costs to an auto manufacturer buying the components at a sales
volume of 20,000 to 25,000 per year for this model, but there is an implicit assumption that total
battery and motor sales across all models is over 100,000 units per year. Costs of engine,
transmission and emission control systems are based on earlier studies by Energy and
Environmental Analysis, Inc. for DOE, adjusted for inflation. Analysis of fixed costs is based on
the formula presented in appendix A. Note that learning curve effects are included in the costing
of batteries, motors, and controllers, but there is no learning curve effect for assembly.
Computations for a range of 200 miles were performed with the Ni-MH and sodium sulfur
(Na-S) batteries; only the Na-S battery appears to be a realistic proposition from a weight
standpoint. However, the Na-S battery-powered EV is estimated to cost from $27,000 to $54,000
more than an advanced conventional vehicle, depending on vehicle type; the EV powered by Ni-
MH would cost even more if the projected $400/kWh proves correct.
These prices could be lowered significantly, if the range and power criteria were relaxed. Using
the same methodology as for the analysis above, a lead acid battery-powered subcompact EV
can be produced for an incremental price of about $3,000, if range is relaxed to 40 miles
and power degraded to about 40 HP/ton. Hence, many of the disagreements about future EV
prices can be resolved on the basis of vehicle performance and range assumptions, or owing to the
fact that some estimates cite “cost” instead of price. In fact, Renault and Peugeot have chosen the
limited-range, low-performance EV to reduce incremental prices to about $3,000, consistent with
this estimate. The Citroen AX EV, for example, has a range of about 45 to 50 miles and a top
speed of about 55 mph, with poor acceleration.^30
Table 4-9 shows the EV characteristics for 2015. As body weight is reduced with new materials
technology, and modest battery improvements to increase specific energy are expected to occur
by 2015, the weight compounding effects provide for more reasonable prices by 2015.
Incremental price for an intermediate-sized lead acid-powered EV with a range of 80 miles and
with reasonable performance is estimated at less than $3,200 over a similar conventional car with
advanced technology, while a Ni-MH powered version could retail for $2,750 to $8,830^31 more
and offer a range of 100 miles. In a more optimistic scenario, even a 200-mile range is possible
with Ni-MH batteries at price differentials of about half the 2005 levels, while sodium sulphur
batteries can also provide this range for about half of the 2005 price differential, although this is
still expensive at nearly $18,000. If the lithium polymer batteries succeed in meeting U.S.
Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC) expectations, however, an EV with a 300-mile range
could become available at an incremental price of $10,400 for a mid-size car, even after
accounting for the fact that these batteries are likely power limited and will need ultracapacitors to
provide the peak power requirements for acceleration. These price estimates clearly explain the
reason for the interest in the lithium polymer battery. To model the case where the battery is