Considering this wide range of claims, OTA developed its own “best guess” of technology
performance and cost from test data in the open literature and opinions gathered from extensive
interviews with experts from industry and the research community. Such an approach was
necessary to reach any conclusions about the prospects for advanced automotive technologies.
We also have attempted to define the assumptions behind our estimates, to make clearer
comparison with others’ estimates. Finally, we have cited relevant claims from various sources, to
give the reader a sense of the range of uncertainty.
Where our estimates are seen as pessimistic (example: cost targets will be extremely difficult
to meet), they are likely to be more valuable as signposts of where attention must be
directed if technologies are to be successfully commercialized, than as predictions that the
technologies in question are unlikely to be successful. And, where they are seen as optimistic,
especially for the longer term (example: significant improvements will occur in internal
combustion engines), they are best taken as signs of a strong potential rather than as a
definitive statement that these technologies are sure things.
OVERVIEW OF RESULTSOTA’s general conclusions about advanced vehicle technologies are quite optimistic about the
potential for excellent vehicle performance. They are considerably more cautious, however, about
the speed with which technologies can be made commercially available and then introduced
widely into the market, as well as about the likelihood that costs can be sufficiently reduced that
no financial or regulatory incentives would be needed for market success.Technical Potential.
OTA concludes that the available broad menu of existing and emerging technologies
offers a strong technical potential to substantially improve fuel economy. By 2005, assuming
cost targets can be met, it will likely be possible to begin to introduce mass-market vehicles^29 into
the new vehicle fleet that can achieve fuel economy from 50 percent to 100 percent better than
today’s vehicles. For example, some intermediate-size cars could be capable of achieving from 39
to 61 mpg (an increase from the current level of about 28 mpg), depending on their design and
choice of drivetrain and other technologies. Within another decade, still higher levels of fuel
economy may be possible-intermediate-sized cars capable of achieving 60 to 70 mpg or higher.
Much of this improvement (to about 40 mpg by 2005, and to over 50 mpg by 2015) should
be achievable without a radical shift in vehicle drivetrains; however, we believe that such
radical shifts-for example, to hybrid-electric drivetrains--can yield significant added efficiency
benefits (though at higher costs).