Advanced Automotive Technology: Visions of a Super-Efficient Family Car

Like the German automakers, the Japanese were skeptical about the future cost and

performance characteristics of traction batteries for EVs and about the fuel efficiency potential of

hybrids. In contrast to the Europeans, the Japanese companies appeared relatively uninterested in

compression-ignited (diesel) engines for passenger cars. They have, moreover, aggressive

programs to introduce cleaner and more efficient spark-ignited engine technologies such as

lightweight aluminum lean-bum engines and lean NOx catalysts. Actually, recent model Toyotas

and Hondas using conventional engines are poised to meet California’s ultralow emission vehicles

(ULEV) standards in 1998, which is an achievement that could undermine the desirability of more

expensive vehicles that bum “cleaner” alternative fuels such as alcohols and natural gas.

ANALYSIS OF ADVANCED AUTOMOTIVE R&D PROGRAMS

U.S. Competitive Status in Advanced Automotive Technologies

“Leapfrog” Technologies
All of the world’s major auto manufacturers began investigating electric and hybrid vehicle
technologies during the late 1960s and early 1970s. Over the years, each manufacturer has
developed and tested prototype EVs and hybrids with varying design configurations, and there
have been some notable achievements. Mercedes Benz has deployed a prototype fuel cell-
powered van. General Motors has developed the Impact, a prototype EV sports car that goes
from zero to 60 mph in eight seconds. If current plans hold, Volvo will be the first manufacturer
to offer a gasoline engine/electric drive hybrid car in the United States in 1997 or 1998.

Despite significant improvements in the cost and performance of advanced vehicle

technologies, though, automakers interviewed by OTA remain skeptical about the ability of

leapfrog vehicles to compete with steadily improving conventional vehicles in the near term, at

least without government subsidies. For example, Volvo’s hybrid is expected to cost 30 percent

more than a comparable conventional vehicle, and have a range of only 160 miles.^36 Japanese

manufacturers credit the California ZEV mandates with forcing the revival of R&D on EVs that

had been allowed to lapse.

Despite the problems with the federal R&D programs discussed above, the U.S. R&D effort on

leapfrog automotive technologies appears to be more comprehensive in both scope and content

than similar efforts in other industrialized countries. No other country has collaborative R&D

organizations comparable to USCAR the DOE national laboratories, and PNGV nor the

regulatory aggressiveness of California’s (and potentially several northeastern states’) ZEV

regulations. Using the PNGV secretariat’s budget estimate of $270 million in FY 1996--no other

government comes within a factor of two of these levels. While other countries have specific areas

of relative strength (e.g., the Japanese industry’s expertise in advanced ceramics and a growing