What Happens to a Mid-Size Car in 2005?.
Vehicle type | Body material | Fuel economy, mpg a | Price change,$b | Comments
Business as usual Optimized steel^33 Base
Advanced conventional Optimized aluminum^53 +1,500 Direct Injection Stratified Charge engine
Carbon fiber composite 64 +5,200 Price extremely uncertain
Electric vehicle Optimized aluminum^51
C
+4,200 Lead acid battery
Optimized aluminum 82 +10,300/4,300 NiMH battery (lower value assumes
battery cost $180/kWh, based on
developer claims)
Hybrid-electric Optimized aluminum^65 +4,600 Bipolar lead acid battery energy storage
Optimized aluminum 71-73 +7,000/9,800 Flywheel/ultracapacitor energy storage
Fuel cell hybrid Optimized aluminum^83
d +6,000/40,000 Lower price assumes major cost
breakthroughs ($65/kW); energy storage
by bipolar lead acid batteryaEnvironmental Protection Agency test value, unadjusted.
bAll prices are the incremental retail price compared to the business as usual (base) vehicle of that year.
CGasoline equivalent. Assumptions:. 40 percent efficiency @ power station,
. 95 percent efficiency@ transmission,
. 94 percent efficiency@ refining and distribution of gasoline,
l 3413 Btu/kWh,
. 115,000 Btu/gallon of gasoline.
d Lead acid vehicle efficiency is 0.167 kWh/km, NiMH efficiency is 0.103 kWh/km.
Based on methanol/gasoline energy content--not primary energy.
NOTE: 1995 fuel economy=28 mpg. To avoid misinterpretation: the values in this table represent OTA’s best guess for mid-point values of performance and
cost. In most cases, developers of the advanced technologies are intent on achieving better Performance and lower costs than shown here. The values express
OTA’s conclusion that such achievements represent a substantial challenge; they do not imply that better performance and lower costs cannot be achieved.SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment, based on Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc.,“Automotive Technologies To Improve Fuel Economy to
2015,” prepared for the Office of Technology Assessment, June 1995.