Advanced Automotive Technology: Visions of a Super-Efficient Family Car

from vehicle scrappage, though the increase is likely to be gradual unless use of composites in

vehicle structure becomes widespread.

In the future, alternative propulsion systems could raise new concerns about recycling. For

instance, if large numbers of electric vehicles powered by lead acid batteries are produced and

sold, this would result in dramatic expansion of battery handling, transport, and recycling

operations, with attendant increases in the release of lead to the environment. Other more exotic

battery types, such as sodium sulfur, nickel metal hydride, or lithium-polymer, could raise new

issues in materials handling, recycling, and disposal.

Future Scenarios of Materials Use in Light Duty Vehicles

With the above material selection criteria as background, in this section we discuss some
possible future scenarios for materials use in automobiles. The scenarios attempt to characterize
the automotive materials innovations that may become commercially available in the years 2005
and 2015, assuming two different levels of technological optimism: “advanced conventional” and
“optimistic.” Advanced conventional involves adoption of materials and manufacturing processes
that appear to be straightforward extensions of those currently under R&D. Optimistic involves
materials and manufacturing processes that may require significant breakthroughs by the years
indicated, but nevertheless appear feasible with a concentrated R&D effort.

The scenarios discussed below are illustrative only, and are not intended to represent OTA’s
forecast of the probable evolution of vehicle materials technology. In fact, it is arguable that they
are quite unrealistic: it seems unlikely that the automakers would rely as much on a single
material as the scenarios would suggest. Rather, it seems more likely that vehicle components will
continue to be constructed from whichever materials (iron, steel, aluminum, plastic, composites)
give the best combination of cost and performance. Nevertheless, the scenario approach adopted
here is analytically simple and gives a good indication of the largest weight reductions that might
be achieved through the use of alternative materials.

The analysis focuses on a typical mid-size five-passenger car (e.g., a Ford Taurus) which
currently weighs about 3,200 pounds. A breakdown of the estimated weights of the various
subcomponents of the Taurus (circa 1990) is presented in table 3-3. The scenarios, along with the
assumptions underlying them, are discussed below.