that would significantly reduce the raw materials cost. Reliable estimates of the increased cost of
the vehicle above are difficult to obtain. According to one estimate, the incremental price would
be around $800.^25 This estimate includes raw materials cost only, however, and assumes that
handling and manufacturing costs for aluminum will be the same as for steel (they are currently
higher). OTA does not make this assumption until 2015. OTA estimates the price increment in
2005 is in the range from $1,200 to $1,500 for a mid-size car.
2015-Advanced Conventional
This vehicle is an optimized, all-aluminum design.^26 In contrast to the 2005 optimistic vehicle,
which still contains more than 1,000 pounds of steel in the drivetrain, chassis, suspension, and
brakes, this vehicle would substitute aluminum and magnesium for steel in almost all metal
components. In addition, a clean sheet design approach is assumed that allows designers to take
maximum advantage of the physical and manufacturing characteristics of these light metals. Such
a design might be a judicious combination of the stamped sheet metal approach featured in the
Honda NSX with the “space frame” concept of aluminum extrusions and castings featured in the
Audi A8.
Although it is difficult to estimate potential weight savings for such a vaguely specified design,
it is possible to get an idea of the upper limit of such savings based on current concept cars. In
particular, Ford has built a “maximum substitution” aluminum Taurus called the Synthesis 2010
that uses aluminum in every feasible component, and is powered by a small aluminum two-stroke
engine. The total curb weight reduction with respect to the production steel Taurus is more than
1,000 pounds. This result is exaggerated somewhat by the fact that the two-stroke engine in the
concept car reportedly does not provide equivalent acceleration performance to the current
production car, and an equivalently performing engine would add additional weight. However, the
design of the Synthesis 2010 is essentially a steel design that does not take fill advantage of the
aluminum substitution, suggesting that with a clean sheet approach, further weight reduction is
possible. Thus, an upper-limit estimate of a 1,000-pound weight reduction, or about 30 percent of
curb weight, may be reasonable for the all-aluminum mid-size vehicle.
Once again. the incremental cost of this vehicle is difficult to estimate. At current prices for
steel and aluminum, the added cost for raw materials alone would be in excess of $1,000.
Optimistically, we assume that in 2015 the manufacturing costs for aluminum will be reduced so
as to be comparable with those for steel. Under this assumption, one estimate places the cost
increment of such a vehicle from $1,200 to $1,500 above a comparable steel vehicle.^27
25 Stodolsky et al., see footnote 4.
26 Thisscenario, which assumesit will takemore than 20 yearn (five model genervations) to introduce an optimized,all-aluminum vehicle may be
Seen as tooconservative, in view of the fact that an aluminum-intensive production car such as the Audi A8 is on the road today. Undoubtedly, ears
containing much greateramounts of aluminum than today’s cars will be introduced before that time. However, solving the problems of massive
aluminum substitution, a new desigm and new manufacturing methods will take time, particularly for a mass-market vehicle such as the Taurus. This
process could be hastenedby a concentrated R&D program, for example, if aluminum vehicles become the focus of the PNGV effort.
27 Stodolsky et al., see footnote 4.