The Times - UK - 04.12.2021

the times | Saturday December 4 2021 2GM 7

News

Swathes of rural England could elect

powerful American-style governors

under Michael Gove’s plans to “level

up” the country.

Devolution is at the heart of his

attempts to flesh out Boris Johnson’s

domestic slogan, with an ambition for

every part of England to have a local

leader with equivalent powers to

London by the end of the decade.

Residents of some rural areas where

the term mayor is deemed inappropri-

ate could elect governors instead.

The proposal is contained in a draft

of the levelling up white paper being

written by Gove’s new Department for

Levelling Up, Housing and Communi-

ties. Though Downing Street

announced in May that the paper

would be published by the end of this

year, it has been delayed to early next

year, The Times has learnt.

Government figures insist that the

delay is simply a reflection of a busy few

weeks of announcements before the

Christmas break, though there have

been tensions about how far-reaching

the paper’s proposals should be.

One idea being considered by Gove

but yet to receive the green light is a

statutory levelling-up quango, which

would monitor every aspect of govern-

ment policy for its impact on regional

inequalities.

Plans to “extend, deepen and simpli-

fy” devolution, though, are fundamen-

tal to Gove’s aims. He has identified an

absence of local empowerment as a

core reason for regional disparities: the

UK is one of the most centralised major

economies. Top-down government,

Whitehall sources believe, has failed to

utilise local knowledge and meant that

policy can often benefit commuters or

new arrivals in a local area rather than

its long-standing residents.

London has had mayors since 2000

but a new generation of Conservative

mayors, such as Ben Houchen in Tees

Valley and Andy Street in the West

Midlands, has helped some in govern-

ment warm to extending devolution.

Gove wants the devolution deals to

cover areas with a strong identity and

community, which in practice means

many will be county deals. Any area ne-

gotiating devolved powers will have to

have a population of at least 500,000.

The devolution deals will see coun-

ties or other areas given more powers

over policy areas such as transport,

housing or health, and given money to

deliver the services that would other-

wise be run from Westminster.

Not every area will be forced to have

a directly elected mayor, or governor,

but those that agree to do so will be

given the most powers.

A government source told The Times:

“Levelling up is about empowering

local leadership and allowing commu-

nities to take back control. The white

paper will set out ambitious plans on

devolution so we can see more Andy

Streets and Ben Houchens delivering

for communities across the country.”

The plan for a new tier of local leaders

is likely to meet resistance from coun-

cillors wedded to the existing system.

An idea being considered is to form a

levelling-up quango that would

monitor the progress of levelling up

against a series of core missions, such as

improving living standards and boost-

ing local pride. The independent over-

sight body would take inspiration from

the Office for Budget Responsibility,

which provides independent analysis of

public finances.

The body would also have an impor-

tant role collating and publishing new

data on regional disparities in the UK.

News

lines gangs in crime crackdown

American-style

governors could

level up England

Henry Zeffman

Chief Political Correspondent

George Grylls Political Reporter

Analysis

M

ichael Gove’s plans

for the levelling up

white paper make

clear his belief that

wider devolution

will help him give meaning to

Boris Johnson’s slogan (Henry

Zeffman writes).

It is, in effect, a bet that

expansion of elected mayors, and

governors, will reduce regional

inequalities and drive growth

around the country. Whether the

smattering of metro mayors

supports that is arguable.

The idea is that devolving

powers to locally-accountable

leaders will improve local quality

of life, as well as giving somebody

with a high profile the ability to

promote an area in Westminster.

If the eventual model for the

whole country is London, then

the government can point to the

London Plan, which under three

mayors of two parties has given

coherence to the revitalisation

and regeneration of large parts of

the capital. The most prominent

mayors have brought a new kind

of civic leadership too: be that

Andy Burnham in Manchester

rebuking the government for its

regional tiers system or Johnson

throwing himself into the hosting

of the 2012 Olympics.

Ben Houchen, the Tory Tees

Valley mayor is praised by party

colleagues in Westminster for

turning a traditional Labour area

deep blue. He has brought his

local airport back into public

ownership.

But there are questions about

local enthusiasm. Turnout in the

last London election was 42 per

cent; in Manchester 35 per cent;

in the West Midlands 31 per cent.

There are concerns over

whether there are enough

mechanisms to hold powerful

local politicians to account day to

day. In areas that are staunchly

Labour or consistently Tory,

would there be enough incentives

for mayors or governors to

deliver for their constituents, or

will they just be able to cling on

for term after term?

commanded a majority of 19,000 in

the suburban London seat. He died

of lung cancer in October, aged 53,

having served as the constituency’s

MP for 11 years.

Dowden responded to the result

by urging Conservative MPs on

WhatsApp to go to North

Shropshire, which he said would be

a “harder” contest.

The Liberal Democrats are

hoping to cause an upset in the

traditional Tory seat despite

finishing third in the 2019 general

election after Paterson was forced

to resign over paid lobbying.

Johnson signalled his intent on

Friday by travelling there a full two

weeks before voters go to the polls.

A senior Conservative Party source

said: “The data for North

Shropshire is not great. It’s a very

difficult seat to canvass because it’s

so rural. Nadhim [Zahawi], George

[Eustice] and the PM are there

today, [Michael] Gove is going

tomorrow. We’re going to blitz it.”

Another local Tory MP said

voters on the doorstep were

apathetic about supporting the

government and described

Conservative support in the

constituency as “soft”.

“There’s disillusionment with

Owen personally and

disappointment with the

government about the tax-raising

budget,” they said.

A senior Tory MP with

knowledge of the constituency’s

politics said earlier this week that

they could not see a scenario where

the Conservatives held it.

Another Tory MP said after the

Bexley result: “North Shropshire is

different matter entirely from what

I’ve heard. I can definitely see us

losing.”

The Liberal Democrats’ candidate

in Old Bexley & Sidcup lost her

deposit after the party

ruthlessly allocated resources

to concentrate on the

upcoming vote in North

Shropshire. Sir Ed Davey, the

party’s leader, will make his

fourth visit to the

constituency this

weekend.

A senior Lib Dem

source said:

“Turnout is going to

be key. We’re

finding there’s a lot

of Tory voters

saying they are fed

up with Boris

Johnson. One of the

things people keep

raising... is the Peppa

Pig speech. That’s had

a lot of cut-through.”

ministers insisted that given the

context of a mid-term December

by-election, French had put in a

“very strong showing”.

In a piece for The Times,

Professor Sir John

Curtice, one of the

country’s leading

pollsters, said the

increase in

support for

Reform UK was

a warning to

the Tories that

its right-wing base

could be fracturing.

The by-election was

triggered by the death

of James Brokenshire,

the former housing

secretary, who

MARTYN WHEATLEY/I-IMAGES

Louie French won for

the Tories in Old

Bexley & Sidcup

John Curtice

Comment

Leave voters

give Tories a

warning of

discontent

Old Bexley & Sidcup

Conservative

Labour

Reform UK

Green

Lib Dem

Other

51.5%

30.9%

6.6%

3.8%

3%

4.2%

33.5%

Turnout

Results at previous elections

Con

2005

2010

2015

2017

2019

Lab Lib Dem Others

Source: London Borough of Bexley

49.8%

54.1%

52.8%

61.5%

64.5%

27.5%

19.3%

19%

29.3%

23.5%

Tories have

been “fed up”

with Johnson

since his Peppa

Pig speech

A

gentle warning to the

Conservatives but no

more than mild

encouragement for

Labour. These are the

principal messages from the Old

Bexley & Sidcup by-election, where

turnout predictably plummeted.

At 10 per cent, the swing from

Conservative to Labour was above

the 6 per cent recorded on average

by national opinion polls and the

largest by-election swing to Labour

for seven years. However,

governments often lose ground

more heavily in by-elections, so

there is little reason to believe that

the polls are underestimating

Labour’s strength. Moreover, that

10 per cent swing owed more to a

13 point fall in Conservative support

than the 7 point increase in

Labour’s tally. Labour has

previously advanced by more than

that in nearly a dozen by-elections

since 2010 but has still gone on to

lose the next general election.

Even if the whole country were to

have swung in the way that Old

Bexley did, Labour, with 308 seats,

would still be short of an overall

majority. The party needs much

more than modest progress before

it will look capable of winning the

next election.

Still, although not as bad as the

reverse in Chesham & Amersham,

lost to the Lib-Dems with a 25-point

swing in June, the Conservatives’

performance is consistent with the

message of the polls that the

buffeting the government has

received of late has cost it some of

the popularity it enjoyed in 2019.

The performance stands in sharp

contrast to the Batley & Spen by-

election in July when, in an equally

pro-Brexit constituency, the

Conservatives retained nearly all

their support.

What perhaps will concern the

party most is that it also lost ground

to Reform UK, the successor to the

Brexit Party, which won 7 per cent

of the vote. The foundation of Boris

Johnson’s victory in 2019 was

uniting most of the Leave vote

behind him, a success that was

assisted by Nigel Farage’s decision

not to contest Conservative-held

seats. In contrast the Remain vote

was fragmented between Labour,

the Liberal Democrats and the

nationalist parties. The

Conservatives cannot afford for the

Leave vote to become fragmented.

Small parties such as Reform UK

are better able to enjoy success in

by-elections than in a general

election. The party is also relatively

unknown to many voters. Johnson

has to hope it remains that way.

Sir John Curtice is professor of

politics at Strathclyde University,

and senior research fellow at

NatCen Social Research and UK in

a Changing Europe