30 2GM Monday December 6 2021 | the times
Wo r l d
Kamala Harris’s office has been shaken
by an exodus of senior staff, leading to
further questions over her political
future and management style.
Tensions have worsened after the
decision of Symone Sanders to with-
draw from the administration at the
end of the month. Sanders, who acted
as a senior adviser and chief spokes-
woman, is the most prominent staff
member to step away.
Many of the departures, including
Ashley Etienne, communications chief,
and two other staff members, come
from the public relations team.
Other staff are reported to be edging
towards the exit after the vice-pres-
Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin will hold
crisis talks tomorrow as Russia masses
175,000 troops on the border with
Ukraine and US intelligence warns of a
potential invasion early next year.
American intelligence officers be-
lieve Moscow has drawn up plans for a
military offensive on several fronts as
the Kremlin continues to move troops,
artillery and armour up to the borders
of eastern Europe. The crisis has re-
newed fears that the stand-off over
Ukraine, the former Soviet republic
that wants to join Nato, could spill into
an invasion and war on European soil.
Images from satellites show Russian
forces massing on the border, with ana-
lysts predicting that the total troop
build-up could reach 175,000. Russian
reservists have been mobilised to join
50 battlefield groups, along with tanks
and artillery. Moscow has dismissed the
concerns, claiming that it is conducting
routine military exercises, and accused
Ukraine and Nato of aggression.
However, the Donbas region has ex-
perienced some of the fiercest fighting
with Russia since the dispute began
about seven year ago.
Washington is threatening tough
sanctions that could cut off Russia from
international financial systems.
“President Biden will underscore US
concerns with Russian military activi-
ties on the border with Ukraine and re-
affirm the United States’ support for
the sovereignty and territorial integrity
of Ukraine,” the White House said.
Biden said on Friday that the US had
prepared the “most comprehensive and
meaningful set of initiatives to make it
very, very difficult for Mr Putin”. Anto-
ny Blinken, the US secretary of state,
said that the US could launch “high-im-
pact economic measures that we’ve re-
frained from taking in the past”.
Putin is certain to reaffirm Russia’s
opposition to Ukraine joining Nato, but
Nato has said that Moscow has no say
in plans for possible expansion. The US
Putin ‘is ready to invade
Ukraine in the new year’
believes Russia has 70,000 troops on
the border but Ukraine puts that figure
at 94,000. Both assessments believe the
Russian strategy allows for swift re-
inforcements to double the number.
Ukraine has said that Moscow could in-
vade next month. US officials said the
groundwork for an invasion was backed
by a renewed propaganda campaign
from Russian-influenced media groups
in Ukraine, blaming Kiev for any
potential military escalation.
Maria Zakharova, of the Russian for-
eign ministry, said: “Russian armed
forces on Russian territory is the legal
right of a sovereign state. The US media
should be concerned by the aggressive
activity of the US, not Russia.”
Ukrainian and Nato sources fear that
Moscow could use migrants to seize the
Suwałki Corridor — a 60-mile sliver of
territory between Poland and
Lithuania. The corridor is all that
connects Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia
with the rest of the European Union
and Nato’s European territories.
Under such a scenario, Russia could
push migrants into the corridor and
stoke unrest. Russian troops could then
sweep in and deploy military patrols
along the corridor under the guise of a
humanitarian crisis. Such a move
would enable Russia to link up its forces
in Kaliningrad with Belarus.
A diplomat from eastern Europe told
The Times: “Refugees are a very sophis-
ticated weapon if they are weaponised.”
Last month Russia sent troops to the
Belarus border with Poland, where
hundreds of migrants were trying to
cross to the EU. The Kremlin said the
sudden deployment was for snap drills.
A Ukrainian source said the migrant
crisis on the Belarus border was part of
a plan to see if Nato would trigger Arti-
cle 5 on collective defence of the alli-
ance. They said it was a “rehearsal” for
using migrants to seize more territory.
“The migration crisis and massing
troops in Belarus is a strategy to distract
Nato while attacking Ukraine. All these
things are being done by Russia now —
it is all about Ukraine.”
Biden must resist joining Putin’s poker
game, Edward Lucas, page 26Russia’s battle lines
Russian battle
groupsRecently
arrived
Donbas region equipmentNov 9, 20211Nov 26, 20212Nov 26, 20213CRIMEAUKRAINERUSSIAKievMoscow100 milesDonetskLuhanskMOLDOVABELARUSBoyevoPersianovka123YelnyaAnalysis
T
wo aspects of
the Russian
troop build-
up along the
Ukrainian
border have raised
specific alarm about
President Putin’s
suspected plans for an
invasion (Michael
Evans writes).
These are the
deployment of
Russia’s combat-ready
battalion tactical
groups (BTGs),
Moscow’s “shock
troops”, and the
recent arrival of all
the back-up needed
for a medium-termmilitary intervention,
including medical
field hospital units.
Estimates of the
number of troops vary
from 94,000 claimed
by Kiev to 70,000 by
the Pentagon but the
Kremlin could
increase that quickly
to 175,000.
This assessment is
partly based on
Russia’s conventional
military warfare
doctrine, which is
heavily focused on the
use of BTGs, designed
to be ready at
60-minutes’ notice.
Five years ago therewere 66 BTGs; today
there are 168 and 50
are deployed on the
border with Ukraine.
It seems that Putin
might have three
aims, outside of an
actual invasion: to
rehearse Russia’s
ability and capacity to
cross the border and
hold large swathes of
territory in Ukraine
at short notice; to
warn off Nato from
ever allowing Ukraine
to become a member
of the western
alliance; and to test
President Biden’s
nerve.Ukraine
Hugh Tomlinson Washington
Tom Parfitt Moscow
Larisa Brown Defence Editor
Exodus of key staff as Harris poll numbers plummet
ident’s approval rating dropped to
28 per cent in a poll last month, which
has made her the least popular vice-
president since polling began.
Critics have claimed that the alleg-
ations of a dysfunctional operation and
a heavy turnover of exhausted, demor-
alised staff are typical of Harris’s
abrasive management style.
Gil Duran, who quit Harris’s
team after five months in 2013,
wrote in a column for the San
Francisco Examiner that the
“tales of chaos have a
familiar ring to longtime
Harris watchers in Cali-
fornia”, where she hadserved as attorney-general and then
senator.
Democratic rivals are emboldened
by reports that Biden has wearied of the
tension with the vice-presi-
dent. Harris is said to be
frustrated that she has
been saddled with solving
the seemingly intractable
issue of immigration on
the southern US border,
which she feels has
not given her a
chance to shine.
Duran con-
ceded that Har-
ris faced the
twin obstacles
of sexism
and racism,which he said were “the only explan-
ation for why some voters think she’s
worse than Cheney, who lied us into
disastrous wars, approved torture and
accidentally shot a man in the face”.
He added: “But bigotry is baked into
our politics and a successful politician
must beat it, not just blame it.”
Sanders herself had previously hit
back at sources briefing about the chaos
in the vice-president’s office this sum-
mer, denouncing them as cowards. Five
months on she is leaving.
“I love Symone, and I can’t wait to see
what she will do next, ” Harris said. “It’s
been three years of a lot of jumping on
and off planes.” Pressed on whether the
departures were part of a big shake-up
of her team, the vice-president declined
to comment.United States
Hugh Tomlinson
Harris has the lowest
approval ratings everSearch for
survivors of
Java volcano