8 2GM Monday December 6 2021 | the times
News
More than ten million people will still
be waiting for treatment on the eve of
the next election despite the govern-
ment’s £16 billion NHS rescue plan,
with red wall seats among the worst
affected, a health consultancy says.
Its analysis shows that there is an
NHS backlog of 13.6 million patients,
comprising 5.8 million people on NHS
waiting lists and a further 7.8 million
who need treatment but have not come
forward during the pandemic.
GPs have warned that even cancer
patients faced lengthy waits and those
who could afford to go private were
doing so thus creating a “two-tier”
health system. Some patients will die as
a result, they fear.
The analysis, by health specialists at
the LCP consultancy, found that even
with the government’s multibillion-
pound investment in the NHS there
would still be a backlog of ten million
patients by 2024.
The backlog will be most acute in the
northwest, which has 10,469 people per
100,000 on NHS waiting lists and a fur-
ther 15,756 people per 100,000 who
have not come forward and who are
described in the study as “hidden need”.
The number of people in the north-
west who have yet to come forward is
twice that of the east of England
because of a combination of the region
having been harder hit by Covid-19 and
higher levels of deprivation.
The issue is particularly acute in Tory
marginals, especially in red wall seats
that the party won from Labour at the
last election. In Heywood & Middleton,
Greater Manchester, the number of
people in need of treatment who have
not come forward is 85 per cent higher
than the national average; in Bury
South and Bury North it is 53 per cent
higher; and in Bolton North East it is
52 per cent higher.
Dr Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, head
of health analytics at LCP, called for
Queue for NHS
treatment ‘will
grow to 10m by
next election’
more investment where the disparity
was greatest. He said: “The NHS back-
log is far larger than many people
realise, including those in the NHS.
Even with the government’s additional
funding, unmet need in the NHS will
continue to rise in the coming months.
“Government needs to acknowledge
the true size of the problem [or it] could
face going into the next election with
huge numbers of voters living with
unmet health need.”
The government has pledged an
extra £16 billion over three years,
funded by an increase in national insur-
ance of 1.25p in the pound.
Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has
made clear to colleagues that there will
have to be strict limits on public spend-
ing if there are to be tax cuts. This week
he told cabinet ministers that the NHS
must show “tangible” signs of improve-
ment after record levels of funding.
Meanwhile, Dr Lizzie Toberty, GP
lead at the Doctors Association UK,
said referrals to specialist care were
being rejected, leaving GPs in a com-
promising situation where they needed
to “keep patients going”.
Toberty, a GP in Newcastle, said she
worried that “people will die of non-
Covid-related conditions who outside
of the pandemic would have survived.”
Those that can afford it or have insur-
ance pay for a private consultation, she
said, “while the rest wait and suffer,
effectively creating a two-tier NHS”.
The NHS said that the pandemic and
vaccinations had “inevitably had an
impact on non-urgent care, yet staff
continued to provide care for those who
needed it and 1.3 million people started
consultant-led treatment in Sept-
ember”.
It added: “NHS staff are now pulling
out all the stops to recover elective
activity levels, making good use of addi-
tional resources to open new surgical
hubs and diagnostic centres, develop
innovative ways of working and per-
form more operations, tests, checks and
scans, so anyone who needs care should
come forward.”Steven Swinford Political Editor
Kat Lay Health Editor
Becky McCall
Emergency contracts will no longer be
handed out without competition in a
shake-up of the state’s £300 billion ex-
penditure which aims to avoid a repeat
of Covid “VIP lane” controversies.
Companies that have ripped off the
taxpayer or broken the law will be
barred from further government con-
tracts as ministers use post-Brexit
freedoms to blacklist rogue suppliers.
Firms implicated in the Grenfell fire
disaster are likely to be among the first
to be banned as ministers give them-
selves more discretion to disqualify
those that have run over budget or en-
gaged in unethical practices.
Steve Barclay, the Cabinet Office
minister, will publish proposals today to
use government contracting to “pro-
mote strong values” and make it easier
for small businesses to win government
contracts by allowing officials to make
decisions on the potential for local job
creation as well as cost.
Almost a third of total government
expenditure — about £290 billion a
year — goes on buying goods and ser-
vices each year. While Britain was in
the EU, such contracts were governed
by EU procurement law, designed toPrivate hospitals are offered
billions to deal with backlog
Kat Lay
Rogue firms blacklisted for contracts
ensure open and fair competition
across the continent. However, this rig-
id bidding process has been criticised as
overly bureaucratic and ministers be-
lieve that simpler and more flexible
rules will make it easier for small com-
panies to bid for government work.
A procurement bill which is expected
to be introduced in the middle of next
year will also allow government buyers
to take into account “social value” con-
siderations such as job creation or the
transition to net zero.
Ministers hope this will allow coun-
cils to buy more from local businesses.
Barclay argues that greater transpar-
ency will ensure that taxpayers still get
value for money and is pledging real-
time updates of planned procurement
processes and contract awards through
a single website.
“Leaving the EU gives us the perfect
chance to make our own rules for how
the government’s purchasing power
can be used to promote strong values.
We’re increasing transparency and
ensuring that procurement remains
fair and open. These simpler and more
flexible rules will also make it easier for
small businesses to win work.”
Ministers want to avoid a repeat of
scandals over emergency Covid con-tracts, which saw the government
spend £18 billion on 8,600 agreements
last year. Companies referred to a “VIP
lane” by ministers, MPs and senior offi-
cials were ten times as likely to win gov-
ernment PPE contracts as those re-
ferred through normal channels.
A National Audit Office investi-
gation found no evidence that ministers
were directly involved in awarding con-
tracts but criticised a lack of documen-
tation which made it impossible to
know why some companies landed lu-
crative supply deals.
Most such contracts were handed
out without competition, as this is seen
as the only alternative to a full
procurement process under current
emergency rules.
Under the new rules, if an emergency
is declared government departments
will be able to run quicker, less formal
competitions that cannot be halted by
losing bidders. Ministers hope this will
result in better value and remove
suspicions of cronyism.
Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, said:
“These reforms are just one of the many
areas where we are taking advantage of
our exit from the EU’s rules.”
New rules are urgent given the lack of
transparency, leading article, page 29Chris Smyth Whitehall EditorThe NHS is seeking to sign new
contracts with private hospitals to carry
out scans and treatment including
cancer care as part of plans to tackle the
5.8 million-strong waiting list.
Health bosses are extending a
scheme in which independent
providers sign up to offer care to NHS
patients at nationally agreed prices.
New contracts worth up to £10 billion
under the “increasing capacity frame-
work” will run from April next year
until December 2024.
Hospitals have been told they should
consider using the service to tackle “the
most acute shortages of capacity”.
A Q&A suggests that independent
hospitals could be used in the first in-
stance to deal with lower priority cases,
leaving the NHS better able to deal with
patients needing urgent care.
Professor Stephen Powis, NHS
national medical director, said:
“Independent sector capacity has been
used throughout the pandemic and
currently use is at almost 115 per cent of
pre-pandemic levels, including over
470,000 day cases, almost 2,800,
surgical procedures and over 500,
diagnostic tests in the last year.”
The framework is the successor to a
deal struck between the NHS and
independent hospitals last year when
the pandemic began.
David Hare, chief executive of the
Independent Healthcare Providers
Network, said: “The independent sec-
tor is a vital tool in the NHS’s armoury.”A protest against Belgium’s Covid restrictions turned violent in Brussels yesterday with stones, flares and fireworks beingNews Coronavirus