The Economist - USA (2019-07-20)

The EconomistJuly 20th 2019 Europe 43

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nality surrounding Mr Höcke.

Tellingly, none of the afd’s national

leaders was among them. The leadership

“needs to keep both wings together, and

that gives the advantage to the radicals,”

says Werner Patzelt, a political scientist in

Dresden. But should Mr Höcke become the

voice of the party, conservative afdvoters

in the west may be scared off. One party fig-

ure has said the afdmay lose ten votes in

the west for each one it gains in the east.

Paradoxically, success for the afdin the au-

tumn elections could intensify the party’s

problems by vindicating the eastern ultras.

Some internal differences are “difficult to

reconcile,” acknowledges Tino Chrupalla,

an afdmpfrom eastern Saxony. All this

comes at an awkward time for the party

which is sagging in national polls.

It has also been stung by suggestions

that its rhetoric encourages violence. An-

negret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the cdu’s

leader, has said that anyone in her party

who is considering working with the afd

should “close their eyes and imagine Walt-

er Lübcke”, a reference to a cdupolitician

who was murdered recently, allegedly by a

neo-Nazi fanatic.

But the afd’s success in the east creates a

real problem for mainstream parties who

must form governments from a fragment-

ed vote. In Saxony the afdand the cduboth

poll around 25%. Michael Kretschmer, the

state’s premier and cduleader, rules out a

coalition with the afdafter the election.

But others in his party seem less sure. In

neighbouring Saxony-Anhalt, where the

cduleads a fractious three-way coalition,

some party figures want to open the debate.

At municipal level there are signs of infor-

mal cdu-afd co-operation. And even in

Saxony, a minority cdugovernment open

to working with all parties, including the

afd, may ultimately look more attractive

thantheunwieldythree-orfour-partyco-

alitionthatmaybetheonlyalternative.

Inthelongterm,theprospectsforsuch

dealsmaydependontheafditself.Andin

theeastthepartyismakingitselfharderto

workwith.It hasstartedtofostera nascent

“Ossi”nationalism,hintingthateastern-

ers’ experience of dictatorship renders

themcannierthanwestGermans,corrupt-

edaswesternersarebyMerkel,migrants

and theLügenpresse—and,perhaps, well

placedtobringaboutthenecessaryrevolu-

tion.AtthePegidaeventa speakerattacks

thedomesticintelligenceagencythathas

declared theFlügel atarget for surveil-

lance,triggeringcriesof“Stasi!”fromthe

crowd.AneastBerlinbranchoftheafdre-

centlycirculatedamemedepictingwest

GermanyasanIslamiccaliphate,withthe

nationalflagreservedfortheeast.

Needlesstosay, theaudienceforthis

sortofthinginwesternGermanyislimit-

ed.Hopingfora showdown,someofthe

afd’s lessradicalpoliticianswanttheeast-

ernerstoputthemselvesupforelectionto

the party’s executive board, which is

dominatedbywesterners,laterthisyear.

MrHöckehasvowedthattheboardwill

change,butmaynotstandhimself.That

makeshima coward,snortsoneofhisin-

ternal opponents. But it is increasingly

clearwhohastheupperhand. 7

Baden-

Württemberg

Mecklenburg-

WestPomerania

NorthRhine-

Westphalia

Rhineland-

Palatinate

Saarland

Schleswig-

Holstein

Saxony-

Anhalt

LowerSaxony

Bremen*

Berlin

Hamburg

Branden-

burg

Thuringia

Saxony

Hesse

Bavaria

Dresden

The east is blue

Source: Wahlrecht.de *May 2019 election result

Alternative for Germany,stateelectionpolling

2019 or latest, %

0 10 15 20 25

I

t is almostthree months since an elec-

tion gave Pedro Sánchez, the Socialist

prime minister, victory but left him well

short of a majority in a fragmented parlia-

ment. Spaniards have watched Danes and

Greeks swiftly form new governments

after more recent votes. No such luck for

them. After weeks of stasis and then hag-

gling, only in a debate starting on July 22nd

will Mr Sánchez seek the approval of parlia-

ment to form a government.

His clearest route involves hooking up

his Socialists (with 123 of the 350 seats in

parliament) in a coalition of some sort with

Podemos (42), a further-left party. Parlia-

mentary backing from Basque nationalists

and two small regional parties would take

the total to 173. Esquerra, a Catalan separat-

ist party, will probably abstain, which

would get Mr Sánchez over the line. “This is

the agreement that could happen,” says

Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Carlos

III University. “But I don’t know if it will.”

There is much bridge-building to do.

Little took place in the first month after the

election because a vote for mayors and 12 of

Spain’s 17 regional administrations fol-

lowed on May 26th. Then Mr Sánchez threw

himself into the horse-trading over eu

jobs, securing the post of foreign-relations

supremo for Josep Borrell, his foreign min-

ister. At home, Mr Sánchez’s possibilities

are limited, mainly because Albert Rivera,

the leader of Ciudadanos, a formerly liberal

party that has swerved right, ruled out any

agreement even before the election. Mr

Sánchez has urged Ciudadanos and the

conservative People’s Party (pp) to abstain

to allow him to form a government. His

case is weakened because he scorned a

similar request from Mariano Rajoy, then

prime minister, in 2016.

That leaves two options: reach a deal

with Podemos or call a fresh election in the

autumn, which would be Spain’s fourth in

as many years. Amid mounting acrimony,

on July 15th Mr Sánchez said his talks with

Pablo Iglesias, leader of Podemos, had bro-

ken down. The crux of their disagreement

is over how much power Podemos would

have in the government. Mr Sánchez at first

hoped to form a Portuguese-style adminis-

tration, in which the Socialists govern

alone but with parliamentary support from

two further-left parties. Unlike his Portu-

guese counterparts Mr Iglesias has insisted

on a formal coalition.

Mr Sánchez has successively offered a

“government of co-operation” in which Po-

demos would have second-tier jobs, and

then a couple of ministries for technocratic

sympathisers. Officials rule out inviting Mr

Iglesias himself or Irene Montero, his po-

litical and life partner, into senior cabinet

posts. “They don’t trust them,” says Mr Si-

món. There are big policy disagreements,

ranging from the economy to Catalonia,

where Mr Iglesias supports a referendum

on self-determination.

If the investiture fails this month, in

theory Mr Sánchez could try again in Sep-

tember. But it would be no easier then. His

MADRID

Either a leftist coalition that dare not

speak its name, or a new election

Spain

Stumbling towards

a government

Not much to work with

Source:ElPaís *OneEsquerraandthreeotherCatalanseparatistMPssuspended

Spain,seatsintheChamberofDeputiesbyparliamentarygroup

July2019,total=350

Esquerra* Basque Nationalists

Podemos Socialists Ciudadanos People’s Party Vox

Others*

42 123 15 17 57 6266 4