46 Europe The EconomistJuly 20th 2019
I
t is hardto imagine a biography less suited to the mood of to-
day’s Europe than that of Ursula von der Leyen, the German in-
coming president of the European Commission. Insurgent parties
are sweeping the continent, cracks are forming between and with-
in the eu’s member states and new threats are looming in the wid-
er world. Mrs von der Leyen is the posh daughter of a Christian
Democrat (cdu) minister-president of Lower Saxony. She rose
through various government roles as an ally of Angela Merkel,
glides multilingually through the world’s foreign-policy salons
and can seem rather prim. Many consider her spell as German de-
fence minister a debacle. Just what the old continent needs, one
might groan: a slick, over-promoted scion of Europe’s unloved po-
litical establishment.
The manner of Mrs von der Leyen’s election supports that
gloomy gloss. She was never a favourite to run the eu’s executive
but rather a last-ditch candidate stumbled upon by sleep-deprived
leaders at the conclusion of a three-day summit two weeks ago. In
a speech before the European Parliament ahead of a binding ap-
proval vote on July 16th she issued a screed of mostly familiar albe-
it sensible policy proposals designed to secure a centrist majority,
including faster progress towards carbon-emissions targets, en-
abling the euto take some foreign-policy decisions without reach-
ing unanimity, more capital-markets integration and a 50% fe-
male commission. She had hoped to win over socialists, liberals
and greens as well as members of her own centre-right bloc—to-
gether the four hold 518 of the 751 seats in the parliament. But she
failed to persuade parts of the centre-left and won her tiny nine-
seat majority with the support of some opportunistic meps from
populist groups.
Appearances can be deceptive, however. Where Mrs Merkel is
more straightforward than she sometimes seems, her erstwhile
protégée is more enigmatic. And that is grounds for open-minded-
ness about her prospects as the first woman to be commission
president goes about building her team of commissioners with na-
tional governments, who formally propose its members.
For one thing, her background is not as smooth as it sounds.
Her father was once an outsider in his own party. He took on the
right-wingers who dominated his state branch and transformed itintooneoftheparty’smost liberal outposts. “There was the Lower
Saxon cdubefore Ernst Albrecht and there was the Lower Saxon
cduafter Ernst Albrecht,” notes Alexander Clarkson of King’s Col-
lege London. Far from being a teacher’s pet, Mrs von der Leyen
drifted for periods of her youth and spent a liberating spell as a stu-
dent in London that, she says, gave her an “inner freedom”. She was
never truly a creature of the cduand was plucked from relative ob-
scurity by Mrs Merkel, who admired her no-nonsense style, to be-
come families minister in 2005. In that job Mrs von der Leyen ap-
palled traditionalists by bringing in a swathe of social reforms,
such as extending paternity leave and expanding child-care provi-
sion. As labour minister she tried but failed to bring in quotas for
women in boardrooms.
Her toughest assignment came when in 2013 she moved into
the Bendlerblock, the grand complex housing Germany’s defence
ministry and long considered the ejector seat of German ministe-
rial careers. Her record there is at best mixed—Germany’s armed
forces remain woefully under-equipped—but better than it looks.
Mrs von der Leyen inherited a department scarred by decades of
hierarchical conservatism, strategic sluggishness and underfund-
ing and has led it during a period when pacifist, cautious Germany
has undertaken recently unimaginable foreign military commit-
ments in places like Mali, Iraq and Lithuania. She has championed
a networked, active German role in the world (“leadership from the
centre” she calls it) and has fought doughtily for budget increases.
Her attempt to take on the brass and the bureaucrats by using out-
side experts, most notably appointing a management consultant
to a senior job, ruffled feathers and prompted a still-ongoing par-
liamentary inquiry into the allocation of lucrative contracts to
consultancies. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Mrs Merkel’s fa-
voured successor as chancellor, takes over from Mrs von der Leyen
in the ejector seat.Judgment reserved
Peter Dausend and Elisabeth Niejahr, Mrs von der Leyen’s biogra-
phers, compare her to a school pupil who takes on the strongest
child in the playground. It seems reckless, but has advantages.
Failure is assumed; victory carries big rewards. A certain gutsiness
also marks her manner of working. She prefers to hold meetings
not sitting down but on foot, and works next to trusted aides with
laptops adjacent “like duetting pianists at one piano”. One military
official says she often sleeps in the ministry. Frenetic, driven and a
natural troublemaker, the real Mrs von der Leyen belies her
smooth public image: less twinset and pearls than knuckle-duster
and caffeine pills.
All of which could mean that choosing her for a five-year spell
at the Commission’s helm is a gamble. The vote on July 16th was de-
ceptive. Mrs von der Leyen’s narrow majority said less about her
authority than about the strategic feints, procedural grumbles and
face-saving measures of meps from across the spectrum. Such is
today’s fragmented and febrile European politics. The question is
less what meps make of her now than whether she can bridge those
gaps with broadly acceptable proposals that respond to Europe’s
many challenges. That will take an ability to confront people but
also to broker deals, so Mrs von der Leyen should appoint experi-
enced commission hands like Margrethe Vestager, the Danish
competition supremo, to powerful roles. Smooth and abrasive, es-
tablished and insurgent, the incoming president may turn out to
be the worst of all worlds. But with a strong team around her it is
also possible that her contradictions will prove a blessing. 7Charlemagne Knuckle-dusters and pearls
Does Ursula von der Leyen have the right skills for the European Commission presidency?