Uncertainty and Probability Secretary Problem

Ambiguous secretaries (with Tatjana Chudjakow)

based on Chudjakow, R., IMW Working Paper 413

Call applicantjacandidateif she is better than all predecessors

We are interested inXj=Prob[jbest|jcandidate]

Here, the payoffXjis ambiguous — assume that this conditional

probability is minimal

If you compare this probability with the probability that later

candidates are best, you presume themaximalprobability for them!