Encyclopedia of Sociology

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

closely related at all time points to support various
theories about the causal importance of such fac-
tors as mortality and children’s roles, but certain
lags and superficial inconsistencies do not seem to
prove fundamentally that fertility failed to respond
as some of the above theories would suggest. The
more basic question may be whether fertility even-
tually responded to changes in social structure
such as mortality.

Even after admitting some problems with pre-
vious traditional interpretations of the European
fertility transition, one cannot ignore the fact that
the great decline in fertility occurred at almost the
same time as the great decline in mortality and was
associated (even if loosely) with a massive process
of urbanization, industrialization, and the expan-
sion of educational systems.

FERTILITY TRANSITIONS IN THE

DEVELOPING WORLD

The great majority of countries in the developing
world have undergone some fertility declines in
the second half of the twentieth century. While the
spectacularly rapid declines (Taiwan, South Ko-
rea) receive the most attention, a number are also
very gradual (e.g. Guatemala, Haiti, Iraq, Cambo-
dia), and a number are so incipient (especially in
Africa) that their nature is difficult to discern.

The late twentieth century round of fertility
transitions has occurred in a very different social
context than the historical European pattern. In
the past few decades, mortality has declined very
rapidly. National governments have become very
attuned to checking their unprecedented national
growth rates through fertility control. Birth con-
trol technology has changed greatly through the
development of inexpensive methods such as the
intrauterine device (IUD). The world has become
more economically and socially integrated through
the expansion of transportation and developments
in electronic communications, and ‘‘Western’’ prod-
ucts and cultural ideas have rapidly diffused
throughout the world. Clearly, societies are not
autonomous units that respond demographically
as isolated social structures.

Leaders among developing countries in the
process of demographic transition were found in
East Asia and Latin America, and the Carribbean

(Coale 1983). The clear leaders among Asian na-

tions, such as South Korea and Taiwan, generally

had experienced substantial economic growth, rap-

id mortality decline, rising educational levels, and

exposure to Western cultural influences (Freed-

man 1998). By 1998, South Korea and Taiwan had

fertility rates that were below long-term replace-

ment levels. China also experienced rapidly declin-

ing fertility, which cannot be said to have causes in

either Westernization or more than moderate eco-

nomic development, with a life expectancy esti-

mated at seventy-one years and a rate of natural

increase of 1.0 percent (PRB 1998).

Major Latin American nations that achieved

substantial drops in fertility (exceeding 20 per-

cent) in recent decades with life expectancies sur-

passing sixty years include Argentina, Brazil, Chile,

Columbia, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Mexi-

co, and Venezuela. All of these have also experi-

enced substantial changes in mortality, education,

or both, and economic development.

Unlike the European historical experience,

fertility declines in the post-1960 period have not

always sustained themselves until they reached

near replacement levels. A number of countries

have started declines but then leveled off with

three or four children per reproductive age wom-

an. For instance, Malaysia was considered a ‘‘mira-

cle’’ case of fertility decline, along with South

Korea and Taiwan, but in recent years its fertility

level has stabilized somewhat above the replace-

ment level.

Using the PRB data for 1986 and 1998, we can

trace recent changes for 166 countries in estimat-

ed fertility as measured by the Total Fertility Rate

(TFR), an indicator of the number of children

typically born to a woman during her lifetime.

Some 80.1 percent of the countries showed de-

clines in fertility. Of all the countries, 37.3 percent

had a decline of at least one child per woman, and

9.0 percent had a decline of at least two children

per woman.

The region that encompasses countries hav-

ing the highest rates of population growth is sub-

Saharan Africa. Growth rates generally exceed 2

percent, with several countries having rates that

clearly exceed 3 percent. This part of the world has

been one of the latest to initiate fertility declines,

but in the 1986–1998 period, Botswana, Kenya,