Encyclopedia of Sociology

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

Mortality and Fertility

Life Expecenty in Years, 1986

Total Fertility Rate, 1998

30 40 50 60 70 80

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Figure 2

degree to which populations adopt the ‘‘Western’’
nuclear family, either through cultural diffusion
or through autonomous changes in local social
structure.

Taking the long view, the outlook for a com-
pleted state of demographic transition for the
world population as a whole generally appears
positive if not inevitable, although demographers
are deeply divided on estimates of the size of world
population at equilibrium, the timing of complet-
ed transition, the principal mechanisms at work,
and the long-term ecological consequences. Cer-
tainly, the world population will continue to grow
for some period of time, if only as a consequence
of the previous momentum of high fertility rela-
tive to mortality. Most if not all demographers,
however, subscribe to the view expressed by Coale
(1974, p. 51) that the entire process of global
demographic transition and the phase of phe-
nomenal population growth that has accompanied

it will be a transitory (albeit spectacular) episode in

human population history.

REFERENCES

Bongaarts, John 1975 ‘‘Why High Birth Rates are So

Low.’’ Population and Development Review 1:289–296.

Caldwell, John 1976 ‘‘Toward a Restatement of Demo-

graphic Transition Theory.’’Population and Develop-

ment Review 2:321–366.

——— 1986 ‘‘Routes to Low Mortality in Poor Coun-

tries.’’ Population and Development Review 12:171–220.

Cleland, John, and Christopher Wilson 1987 ‘‘Demand

Theories of the Fertility Transition: An Iconoclastic

View.’’ Population Studies 41:5–30.

Coale, Ansley 1973 ‘‘The Demographic Transition.’’

International Population Conference, IUSSP. Liege,

Belgium.

——— 1974 ‘‘The History of Human Population.’’ Sci-

entific American 23:41–51.