The Economist - USA (2021-12-18)

30 Asia TheEconomistDecember18th 2021

entreasonsforleavingthecountry,sug gestingbotheconomicimprovementsin placesbeyondPyongyangandagrowing awarenessoflifeintheoutsideworld.“In earlieryearspeoplewouldsaytheywere fleeingtosurvive;nowmostsaytheyfled forfreedom,”saysSokeelParkofLibertyin NorthKorea,anngoinSeoulthathelps NorthKoreansreachtheSouth. MrKim’s“fatherandgrandfatherbuilt their identity around conflict, suffering andsacrifice,”saysJennyTownoftheStim sonCentreinWashington.“Hedidn’thave that,sopromisingpeoplea betterlifewas analternativewaytobuildlegitimacy.”Yet theboundariesofthat“betterlife”have beengraduallyconstrictedinrecentyears. ThepointofitwastomakeMrKim’srule morestable.Itdidnotextendtoallowing anythingresemblingarealmarketecon omyorgrantingmorepoliticalfreedomsto ordinarypeople. Andit hasbeenaccompaniedbyheight enedrepressioninsidethecountry,tighter controlofthebordersandaccelerationof the nuclear programme started by Mr Kim’spredecessors,notablythroughtests of intercontinental ballistic missiles which,NorthKoreaclaims,arecapableof reachingAmerica.Theinternationaleco nomicsanctionsimposedontheNorthto slowdownthenuclearprogramme,which werestrengthenedin 2017 afterthosetests, leftMrKimwithlittlemoneytoadvance goalsotherthanbuildinguphisarsenal. MrKim’sattemptstoresolvethatcon tradictionbycourtingMrTrumpandMoon Jaein,SouthKorea’spresident,endedin failure.DuringhismeetingwithMrTrump inHanoi,hemiscalculatedbydemanding comprehensive sanctions relief from AmericainreturnfordismantlingYong byon, an important but ageing nuclear plant.MrTrump,whoprideshimselfon hisabilitytodrivea hardbargain(andhas littlepatienceforworkingleveltalks),re buffedMrKim,causingtalkstocollapse. That might have been manageable, sinceMrKim’sotherdiplomaticovertures inthisperiod,notablytoChina,hadslight

lymoresuccessandensureda steadyflow oftrade,bothlegalandillicit.Butwhenthe pandemicstruck,MrKim’sresponseput paidto that,too(see chart).Theborder withChinahasbeenclosedforthebest partoftwoyears.Despiterecentrumours ofa limitedopening,itislikelytoremain sofortheforeseeablefuture.Tourism is moribund. Mostforeigndiplomatshave left.Aidorganisationsarelockedout,mak ingit difficultforanyonetodiscernwhatis goingoninsidethecountry. There are hints of growing distress, witheventheprivilegedinPyongyangsuf feringfoodshortages.MrKimhimselfhas admittedthatthefoodsituationis“tense” andurgedhispeopletoprepareforhard ship.Buthehasalsoincreasedpenalties forsmuggling,andforwatchingforeign entertainmentsuchasSouthKoreandra mas.Hecontinuestorebuffoffersofaid andevencovidvaccines.CallsbySouthKo reaandAmericatoreviveaspiritofde tente,suchasbynegotiatinga formalend totheKoreanwar,havegoneunanswered. That suggests that Mr Kim has lost hope,atleastfornow,thatbuildingbridges withAmericaanditsalliescanimprove things,reckonsMsTown. Hewillprobably shifthisfocusbacktowardsrelationswith Syria,IranandVenezuela,fellowpariahsto which North Koreahas sometimes sold weaponstoraisehardcash.

If it ain’tbroke... TradewithChina,too,islikelytoresume,if slowly,aspandemicrestrictionsinboth countries are loosenedoverthecoming years.WesterncountriesandSouthKorea mayfindthemselvesatthereceivingend notofdiplomaticoutreach,butofransom wareattacks,cryptocurrencytheftandes pionage perpetrated by North Korea’s increasingly sophisticated statespon sored cybercriminals. Combined with currentlevelsofpoliticalrepression,such measuresarelikelytobeenoughtokeep NorthKorea’seconomyafloat. Giventhat eventhe grimstatus quo looks,fornow,survivable,it willbehardto muster upenticements to coaxMrKim backtothetabletodiscussarmscontrol. Of 82 NorthKoreaanalystspolledrecently bynkPro,a researchoutfitbasedinSeoul andWashington,apluralityof 31 recom mendedthatAmericashouldacceptthat persuadingthepaunchydictatortogiveup hisnuclearweaponswasa lostcause,and engageinsustaineddiplomacythatisnot contingent onhisagreeing to renounce them.Butthereislittleappetiteforthat amongAmericanpoliticians. Tenyearson,the“economicallypower fulstate”MrKimsetouttobuildremainsa mirage. Hecan at leastconsole himself withhisyachtsandthecontinuinggrowth ofhis nucleararsenal. Hispeople,alas, havenosuchluxury.n

Banishing act North Korea-China trade, exports, $m

Source:GeneralCustomsAdministrationofChina

400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 2017 21201918

NorthKorea toChina

China to North Korea

Strongest sanctions announced against North Korea Covid-1 emerges in China

PoliticsinthePacific

Rule of three

“F

rance is morebeautiful,” Emman uel Macron, its president, said on De cember 12th, “because New Caledonia has decided to stay part of it.” The French terri tory, some 17,000km away from Paris in the Pacific Ocean, emphatically rejected inde pendence earlier that day by 96.5% to 3.5%. It was the last of three referendums laid out in the Nouméa Accord of 1998, a com pact designed to end bitter conflict be tween the islands’ loyalist politicians and the largely indigenous and proindepen dence Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (flnks). The result is a turna round from the previous two polls, when it seemed as though proindependence sen timent was gaining strength. In the first, in 2018, 43.3% voted “oui” to independence; in the second, two years later, 46.7% did. The reason was not a sudden surge in affection for l’Hexagonebut a collapse in turnout—the 44% of eligible voters who showed up amounting to barely more than half the 86% at the previous ballot in Octo ber 2020. The flnkshad argued for a delay to the poll after a recent Delta wave that killed one in 1,000 residents, mostly Pacif ic Islanders. A perception that delaying the vote would boost the odds of indepen dence no doubt played a role in the flnks’s call for postponement, too. The govern ment in Paris insisted on sticking to the ap pointed date, to avoid criticism from na tionalists in the runup to the French pres idential election in April. Proindepen dence campaigners boycotted the vote. The French government dismissed the

WELLINGTON New Caledonia says no to independence, again

The nons have it

The Economist - USA (2021-12-18)

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