14 | New Scientist | 18/25 December 2021
News
A LONG investigation into the
reliability of preclinical cancer
biology research has found that
fewer than half of the results
published in 23 highly cited papers
could be successfully reproduced.
Tim Errington at the Center for
Open Science in Virginia, which
conducted the investigation, says
the original plan was to reproduce
193 experiments from 53 papers.
However, this was reduced to
50 experiments from 23 papers.
“Just trying to understand
what was done and reported in
the papers in order to do it again
was really hard. We couldn’t get
access to the information,” he says.
The 50 experiments included
112 potentially replicable binary
“success or failure” outcomes.
But Errington and his colleagues
could replicate the results of only
51 of these – or 46 per cent (eLife,
doi.org/g8tc, doi. org/gnp846).
The experiments were all
in-vitro or animal-based preclinical
cancer biology studies, and didn’t
include genomic or proteomic
experiments. They were from
papers published between 2010
and 2012 and were selected
because they were all “high-
impact” studies that had been read
and heavily cited by researchers.
The findings of the eight-year
investigation align with earlier
reports from pharmaceutical
companies Bayer and Amgen.
C. Glenn Begley was a cancerbiologist at Amgen and an author
of its report, published in 2012.
“We looked back at the papers
that we had relied upon at Amgen
and found that we could only
reproduce 11 per cent of the
studies,” says Begley.
The Amgen report was
applauded by some in the research
community for shining a light
on an important problem.
But Begley says it was also
criticised for a lack of openness
about which studies it tried and
failed to replicate.This criticism can’t be levelled
at the new investigation. Errington
and his colleagues have published
all the data about the studies they
included. They also invited peer
review of their methods before
the study ended.
The investigation focused
on preclinical studies, but the
problems it uncovered might help
explain issues with later-stage
studies in people too. A previous
survey showed that less than
30 per cent of phase II and less
than 50 per cent of phase III
cancer drug trials succeed.
There are signs of change on
the horizon. The US National
Institutes of Health is instituting
a new policy in early 2023 that
will make data sharing the default
for the many projects it funds.
Several journals have also changed
their publishing systems in recent
years to encourage open science
and data sharing. ❚Cancer research
Clare Wilson
AP
/SHUTTERST
OCKMore than half of cancer biology
lab findings cannot be replicated
An immunotherapy
researcher working
in a laboratoryClimate change
AN EXTREME lack of sea ice in
Canada’s Hudson Bay this winter
should serve as a “wake-up call”
for the risk climate change poses
to polar bears, say conservationists.
Ice normally starts building
up across Hudson Bay in early
November, but the area remained
almost entirely ice-free in the face
of temperatures 6°C above average.
In the north-western part of the
bay, ice extent was at a record low
at the end of November, with just
13 per cent of the area covered in
ice – although the US National
Snow and Ice Data Center says the
bay will eventually freeze.
In an average year, 70 to 80 per
cent of this part of the bay is covered
in ice by the end of November, which
gives the polar bears the conditions
they need to hunt for seals.
“It’s very unusual. It’s very low,”
says Brandon Laforest at WWF
Canada. “I don’t think this is panic
and everything is collapsing, but
it’s indicative of the broader trend
[of sea ice loss].”
Climate change has driven Arctic
sea ice to decline at about 13 per
cent per decade.
“It’s not good [for the bears],”
says Peter Convey, an ecologist atthe British Antarctic Survey. “It tips
the balance towards stress-related
mortality. Fewer will survive.”
Laforest says that while bears in
the high Arctic are currently doing
fine, the sub-population in theHudson Bay area are the canaries
in the coal mine.
“They are the first to go
through these broad implications
of climate change,” he says.
“It’s a wake-up call.”
Laforest says there may be
more human-wildlife conflict as
hungry bears wander into Inuit
communities in search of food.
The late ice is also affecting
people in the region, he says,
because they cannot access their
usual hunting grounds. ❚Hudson Bay polar
bears lack sea ice
for hunting seals
Adam VaughanCR
ITTER
BIZ/SHUTTE
RS
TOCKA polar bear near Churchill,
Manitoba, on the west shore
of Hudson Bay“ Just trying to understand
what was done and
reported in papers to do
it again was really hard”