18/25 December 2021 | New Scientist | 7THERE now seems little doubt that
the Christmas period will coincide
with another major wave of
coronavirus cases around the
world, as it becomes clear that the
omicron variant can largely evade
prior immunity from infection
or two vaccine doses, and might
be even more transmissible
than the delta variant. In England
and Scotland, cases have been
doubling every two days. The big
unknown remains whether there
will be as many hospitalisations
and deaths as in previous waves.
In South Africa, the country that
first detected omicron, the variant
has spread far faster than earlier
variants, with cases doubling
every three to four days.
As New Scientist went to press,there was confusion – due to
IT issues – about whether case
numbers in South Africa were
now slowing or still accelerating.
But in Gauteng province, nearly
as many cases have already been
reported as during the country’s
delta wave earlier this year.
Initial reports suggest there
have been fewer hospitalisations
and deaths in South Africa than
during previous waves, but it is too
early to be sure. Furthermore, it is
estimated that almost everyone
in the country had already been
infected or vaccinated before
omicron began to spread, so prior
immunity – although usually
insufficient to prevent infection –
would be expected to greatly
reduce the risk of severe disease.Outside South Africa, the UK
and Denmark have so far reported
the most confirmed cases of
omicron, prompting Israel to plan
to ban travel to these nations on
top of other travel restrictions it
has already imposed.
Yet the high case numbers may
largely reflect the fact that the two
countries do far more sequencing
than most others. Sequencing
the viral genome remains the
only way to confirm which variant
has infected someone, though
PCR tests can sometimes give an
indication too. The UK would be
expected to have more omicron
cases than other nations because
of its strong travel links to South
Africa, but there is no reason to
think Denmark is exceptional.Facing a festive season dominated by omicron, few countries appear
to have substantially changed their plans, reports Michael Le PageA difficult Christmas
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Covid-“Omicron is already
everywhere,” Hans Kluge at
the World Health Organization
said on 7 December. The many
travel bans imposed because of
the variant – largely on southern
African countries – wouldn’t
work for this reason, he said.
So far, it appears only a few
countries have introduced
measures to prevent omicron’s
spread within their borders,
though some, including
Germany and Belgium, already
had restrictions in place to tackle
high numbers of delta cases.
Home working for those
who can has been reintroduced
across the UK, but when New
Scientist went to press, large
events would probably still go
ahead in England for those with
vaccine passports. This is despite
UK data suggesting that being
double vaccinated offers little
protection from symptomatic
infection with omicron.
Denmark has imposed similar
measures, limiting opening
hours for bars but not closing
them altogether.
While most other nations have
yet to impose new restrictions due
to omicron, some are stepping
up efforts to give booster shots
to people who have already
had two vaccine doses. On
12 December, Anthony Fauci,
the chief medical adviser to the
US president, urged those already
vaccinated to get a booster shot,
citing evidence suggesting it
greatly increases protection
against omicron.
The same day, UK prime
minister Boris Johnson
announced a mass booster
campaign, saying “Do not
make the mistake of thinking
omicron can’t hurt you,
can’t make you and your
loved ones seriously ill.” ❚A shop window
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