24WORLD NEWS
In the 26 years since the war ended,
Dzehva Jasarevic has done her best to
forget it ever happened. Her family
drinks coffee with relatives of the Serbian
man who murdered her sister-in-law. She
chats to her Serbian neighbours, the ones
who warned her and other Bosniaks to
flee their homes near the city of Banja
Luka, now part of the Bosnian Serb
autonomous region, when the killing
began in 1992.
After the war she came back home
with her family, determined to move on
and too poor to go anywhere else. Serbs,
Bosniaks and Croats were all doing the
same thing — trying to forget the hatred
and the mistrust that had left more than
100,000 dead, most of them Bosniaks.
But now a move by Serb politicians to
withdraw from Bosnia’s key institutions
has raised fears of a new conflict, and
brought back memories that had been
buried deep after the signing of the Day-
ton Accords in 1995. The agreement
stopped the war and created a new con-
stitution for Bosnia and Herzegovina, a
country now comprised of one self-
governing city, Brcko, and two semi-
autonomous entities: the Bosnian Feder-
ation, largely populated by Muslim Bosni-
aks and Croats, and the Republika
Srpska, the mostly Serbian area where
Jasarevic lives.
“We were sitting every night and wait-
ing for someone to kill us,” said Jasarevic,
a 60-year-old redhead. “Now we just
want to live. It’s only the politicians on all
sides who are stirring all this.”
The escalation has been driven by
Milorad Dodik, 62, one of Bosnia’s three
presidents — each from a different ethnic
group. He is a towering Serb populist who
has dominated politics in the Republika
Srpska for decades. Once a liberal darling
of the West, he has become increasingly
hardline in his nationalistic fervour, and
is close to President Putin. He also
admires David Cameron.
Last week, after a vote by Serb MPs, he
announced that Republika Srpska would
begin to withdraw from key Bosnian insti-
tutions including the army, setting off
what diplomats and politicians in the
country say is the biggest crisis for the
country since the 1990s.
Matt Field, the British ambassador to
Bosnia, tweeted last week that the
“attacks” on the state institutions were
unlawful, destabilising and inspired by
political ambitions. Western countries
are considering sanctions against
Republika Srpska and some of its
politicians.
Bosniak political leaders warn that the
country is sliding towards a new war.
“Dodik is the generator of all activities
aimed at endangering the peace and sta-
bility of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well
as its division,” Ramiz Salkic, the Bosniak
vice-president of the Republika Srpska,
told me in an email. “We have come very
close to physical endangering of the
peace, the closest since the signing of the
Dayton Peace Accord.”
Salkic, who spent time in Serb camps
during the war, and whose father and twoMilord Dodik,
left, one of
Bosnia’s three
presidents, who
is close to
President Putin,
has stirred
memories of a
conflict that
included the
siege of
Srebenica, topof his brothers were executed, said Dodik
— despite his denials — would try to lead
the republic to secession from Bosnia.
“If Dodik is not prevented from mak-
ing his goals reality, the return to violence
is likely,” he wrote.
Amid the deluge of pressure and criti-
cism, Dodik remains unrepentant. “It
was a mistake that Bosnia and Herzego-
vina continued to exist” after 1995, he
told me last week. “We had the Dayton
Accords, and we’ve been trying for 26
years to make it work, and it’s not.”
He painted himself as a leader of a peo-
ple seeking freedom from interference
from the international community. Rep-
resentatives from foreign governments,
including the UK, remain heavily
involved in Bosnia’s governance throughthe Office of the High Representative —
appointed to ensure the civil component
of the Dayton Accords was implemented
— and the presence of three international
judges in the Bosnian constitutional
court.
Dodik claimed he wants to return to
the fundamentals of the 1995 constitu-
tion, in which more powers belonged to
the autonomous region. “Many are mak-
ing a fuss, saying conflict could occur. But
ensuring peace is a priority,” he said.
He is pressing for further autonomy for
Serbs within Bosnia, not union with Bel-
grade, and refused to accept any respon-
sibility for the escalation of nationalist
rhetoric and fears of instability, blaming
everything on the international commu-
nity. “Bosnia and Herzegovina is the only
colony in Europe,” he claimed. “It is
under the management of the foreigners
who are dictating their own ideas here.”
In the mid-1990s the UK, America,
Russia, France and Germany worked
together to find an end to the war amid
the collapse of Yugoslavia. Nationalist
and ethnic tensions that had been sup-
pressed under communism were stoked
by political leaders.
Bosniaks and Croats claim that the war
was started by Serbian aggression. Serbs
say it was started by Bosniaks and Croats,
who wanted to separate Bosnia from
Yugoslavia. Horrifying crimes were com-
mitted, such as the genocidal massacre atSrebrenica, where more than 8,000 Mus-
lim men and boys were killed by units of
the Bosnian Serb army under the com-
mand of Ratko Mladic. Bosniaks and Cro-
ats also killed Serbs. Then, in 1995, the
war ended — without addressing the
grievances that had caused it.
“Now it’s visible that the war never
stopped, it was just paused,” said Aida
Daguda, director of the CPCD, a civil soci-
ety organisation in Sarajevo.
There are fewer weapons available
than there were in the 1990s, and memo-
ries of the violence are fresh in the minds
of many. But fears are rising that amid the
soaring nationalist rhetoric a touchpaperWhich Joe runs America? Coal-state Democrat blocks Biden’s cherished agenda
SERBIAKOSOVOCROATIAADRIATICSplitRijekaBOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINAFEDERATION OF BOSNIA REPUBLIKA SRPSKA
AND HERZEGOVINAZagrebBelgradeSarajevoMONTENEGROBRCKO DISTRICTcould be lit that would lead to outbreaks
of sporadic violence.
Although many Serbs disagree with
Dodik’s aggressive tactics, they touch on
a sensitive, emotionally resonant point.
There is a widespread belief among Serbs
that they have been collectively punished
and that while the war criminals on their
side have been tried and imprisoned,
those on the other side have been treated
more leniently.
This latest crisis, a prominent opposi-
tion politician in Republika Srpska said,
had been started by the penultimate High
Representative, Valentin Inzko, deciding
at the end of July to amend Bosnian crimi-
nal legislation so that denying the geno-
cide at Srebrenica became punishable by
imprisonment. For many Serbs in Bos-
nia, the Austrian diplomat’s amendment
was regarded as an anti-Serbian move.
In the area around Jasarevic’s house,
only about 10 per cent of the prewar pop-
ulation remains.Their owners live in Swe-
den, Germany, Austria or Holland, and
only return in the summer. Jasarevic
makes ends meet by caring for an elderly
man whose family lives in America, and
who send her money every month. But
with children and grandchildren to sup-
port, she said, it was barely enough to
survive. “We don’t care any more, we just
want our kids and grandkids to have a
better life,” she said.
@louiseelisabetThey
are all
lying to
us, all
of them
WORLD NEWS
Serb populist’s breakaway threat
raises spectre of a slide into war
Politicians seem ready to return to the hatred and mistrust that left 100,000 dead in the 1990s, despite little support from the people
LOUISE
CALLAGHANBanja Luka, Bosnia and HerzegovinaPASCAL GUYOT/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGESviewed with suspicion and
promises of a carbon-free
future conflict with a still
powerful coal industry.
Once a Democratic
stronghold thanks to strong
trade unions, the state was an
easy win for Donald Trump,
who took 68 per cent of the
vote against Biden last year. It
has not backed a Democrat
presidential candidate since- Manchin is the only
Democrat to represent it in
Congress or hold statewide
office.
West Virginians support
Manchin’s stand against the
Biden agenda. Last month a
poll by Republican pollsters
of all voters showed that
Manchin enjoys a 61 per cent
approval rating.
“Voters want to be listened
to. When they feel like you’re
listening to them, they will
reward that either at the polls
or in numbers like this,” Mark
Blankenship, who ran the
poll, said on local radio. “I
think what’s recognised here
is that Senator Manchin is
listening to the people of
West Virginia.”
Biden’s poll ratings are
The US vice-president was
visibly irritated by the
question that a television
interviewer put to her on
Friday night. “I want to know
who the real president of this
country is,” asked
Charlamagne Tha God. “Is it
Joe Biden, or Joe Manchin?”
For all Kamala Harris’s
indignation it is a question
that much of America is
beginning to ponder.
Manchin, a Democratic
senator from West Virginia,
has refused to toe the party
line on everything from the
president’s public spending
bill to climate change and
voting rights. His
intransigence has put him at
odds with his colleagues on
Capitol Hill and the White
House. It has also made him
the most powerful man in
Washington.
With the Democrats and
Republicans tied on 50
senators each (the vice-
president has the casting
vote), the administration is
dependent on loyal votesfrom everyone on its side of
the aisle to pass the Biden
agenda.
The White House needs
Manchin more than Manchin
needs the White House. And
Manchin, 74, knows it.
“He likes the
independence and this
fleeting moment of power,”
says John Kilwein, professor
of political science at West
Virginia University. “He’s
completely in control. He’s
his own boss, but he also
believes he is pursuing good
policy and grounding
Washington in ‘fly-over
country’ common-sense
values.”
Manchin’s office ignored a
request for an interview, but
in the past he has explained
his approach in simple terms.
“I have always said that if I
can’t go home and explain it,
I can’t vote for it,” he told
Newsweek in August.
West Virginia is where the
newer, diverse left-wing
tendencies of the modern
Democratic party rub up
against deeply held
conservative values, where
the federal government isAlistair Dawber
Fairmont, West Virginiastuck below 50 per cent and
he needs more to show for his
time in office before the
midterm elections in
November next year when
Democrats could lose both
houses of Congress. The
party has pinned its hopes on
Biden’s Build Back Better
spending bill, which includes
climate measures, child tax
credits, extensions of state
health insurance and other
social provisions. Its price tag
has already been almostworth a maximum of
$1 million. His office declined
to respond to questions about
the blind trust or his earnings
from it.
Manchin has cemented his
role as his party’s obstacle in
chief but optimists in
Democrat ranks still hope
that he will find it in him to
back Biden’s legacy bill in
some form to stave off a rout
by Republicans next year.
“I can’t think of another
time when a single member
of Congress has held such a
balance of power, because we
very rarely have this situation
in the Senate,” said Matt
Bennett, executive vice
president of Third Way, a
centre-left think tank.
“The modern Republican
Party doesn’t really believe in
anything except Donald
Trump, while the Democrats
believe in everything — it’s a
very broad coalition. The
president has had to
scramble to keep everyone in
the tent and it’s very difficult.
“I think they will do it,
even Manchin will find a way
of agreeing to it.”
@AlistairDawberin the autumn. That has not
stopped others turning the
screw, however, and reports
of Manchin’s financial links to
the coal industry last week
had all the hallmarks of a
political hit job.
“You got a problem?”
Manchin asked reporters in
September about the
hundreds of thousands of
dollars he earns each year
from his family’s coal
business. “I have been in a
blind trust for 20 years. I have
no idea what they’re doing.”
Yet, as The Washington
Post revealed, documents
filed by the senator show the
blind trust is too small to
account for all his reported
earnings from the company.
Enersystems paid him
$492,000 in interest,
dividends and other income
last year. His share of the firm
is worth up to $5 million.
Manchin set up a blind
trust with $350,000 in cash
nine years ago. In his latest
financial disclosure report,
the senator reported that the
Joseph Manchin III Qualified
Blind Trust earned no more
than $15,000 last year and isOthers, especially on the
left, depict Manchin as an
out-of-touch dinosaur who
risks sinking the party.
“Mr Manchin and the
Republicans and anybody
else who thinks that
struggling working families
who are having a hard time
raising their kids today
should not be able to
continue to get the help that
they have, then that’s their
view and they’ve got to come
forward to the American
people and say, ‘Hey, we
don’t think you need help,’”
said Bernie Sanders.
One crucial point of
tension between Washington
and West Virginia, which
explains Manchin’s reticence
on measures designed to
check climate change, is the
state’s coal industry. In a
campaign video in 2010 when
he first arrived in the Senate,
the then governor famously
fired a rifle at a copy of an
Obama-era climate bill.
Biden has tried in vain to
win over his colleague, even
showing Manchin around his
home in Wilmington,
Delaware, during a meetingJoe Manchin is
described as
the most
powerful man
in Washington
because he
holds the
balance of
powerhalved at the insistence of
Manchin and other
moderates but on Thursday
night Biden conceded that
the $2 trillion package would
not be passed by Christmas as
planned. “I believe that we
will bridge our differences,”
the president said.
Some Democrats have
been less generous. Dick
Durbin, the Senate majority
whip, said he has been left
“stunned” and “frustrated”
by Manchin’s stance.DREW ANGERER/GETTY IMAGES