The Sunday Times - UK (2021-12-19)

32 The Sunday Times December 19, 2021

COMMENT

Robert Colvile

will put further pressure on the public

finances. And with £400 billion already

spent on Covid measures, there is little

scope and less appetite for further

largesse.

“The cost-of-living crisis is only going

to get worse,” admits one government

source. They are adamant that, with

voters already feeling the pinch,

“heaping more tax rises on people is

absolutely not what we’ll be doing”. But

in fact, raising taxes is exactly what the

government is already doing, via the

new health and social care levy that also

kicks in next spring.

Business leaders have — rightly — been

making the case for postponing or even

abandoning those rises, given the

economic uncertainty. Whitehall

sources counter that this would take £12

billion away from the NHS and torpedo

the prime minister’s big social care plan.

To quote Simon and Garfunkel: “Every

way you look at this, you lose.”

Underlying this is a further dilemma:

the more Britain becomes a Covid state,

the less it can be a state that does other

things. The economic pain of a full-fat

lockdown speaks for itself. But imagine a

more moderate scenario in which new

variants emerge every few months,

followed by new booster campaigns to

contain them. That still means

substantial investment in vaccines,

O

n Thursday all eyes in

Westminster were on the

North Shropshire by-election.

But more than 5,000 miles

away something was

happening that may be of even

greater importance to the

government’s future — and the

job security of all those Tory MPs now

shifting nervously in their safe seats.

Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, had been

in California, on a long-planned trip to

sweet-talk US executives and drum up

investment. But instead of spending the

day waxing lyrical about a business-

friendly global Britain, he found himself

racing back to London to wrangle over

the details of the latest bailout measures

for our battered hospitality industry.

It was an abrupt about-turn from

boosterism to booster jabs — and the

perfect symbol of how Covid has

kneecapped not just the economy but

many of the government’s aspirations.

All the spending forecasts were based

on the entirely understandable

assumption that the pandemic would be

a one-off event. Instead we are all now

realising that Covid may well be here to

stay.

For the Treasury this is a genuinely

nightmarish prospect. (I appreciate it’s

not much better for the rest of us.) The

private sector thrives on stability and

certainty. A world ravaged by periodic

waves of Covid is pretty much the

opposite of that. It’s also one of

permanently higher spending,

supported by a permanently smaller

economy.

Even before the latest restrictions

were announced, the data showed

economic activity starting to stall as

worries about Omicron grew. Today

there may not be a formal lockdown, but

the trains and pubs are just as empty.

And, even as tax revenues shrink, the

Treasury has had to find another

£5 billion to pay for the booster

programme.

Omicron may burn itself out. But the

next few months are still likely to be

grim. Inflation has risen to 5.1 per cent.

Rising energy costs are likely to add

roughly £500 to the average household

bill in the new year, the equivalent of

putting 2p or 3p on income tax. The

Bank of England has started to tighten

interest rates, raising borrowing costs

for businesses and homeowners.

In other words, the government is

caught in an almighty fiscal squeeze.

Voters are being hit in the pocket, which

they tend not to be very happy about.

But if the Treasury tries to take the pain

— for example by swallowing some of the

huge rise in the household energy price

cap when it is renegotiated in April — it

sectors are going to be permanently

smaller, GDP will be smaller as well —

and we have not even begun to have a

conversation about what that means in

terms of the size of state we can afford.

All of which brings us back to North

Shropshire. Many people are

proclaiming that the vote on Thursday

means that it’s curtains for Boris, to go

with the gold-plated wallpaper.

The problem with that school of

thought, as any political scientist will

tell you, is that by-elections are an

astonishingly poor indicator of what

will happen down the line. That is

especially so when they are fought amid

a swirl of scandal.

But, as those same political scientists

will tell you, voters tend to judge

governments on their competence — and

their economic competence above all.

And the really frightening thing for the

Tories about Thursday’s vote is that it

came before much of the economic pain

began to bite.

One of the most powerful questions

any opposition can ask — and a pretty

decent predictor of election results — is:

“Are you better off today than you

were?” The Tories have had a kicking

over breaches of lockdown rules. But

making voters poorer is what ultimately

gets governments the boot.

@RColvile

testing and NHS capacity. Paying for that

means tax rises, extra borrowing or cuts

elsewhere.

The Treasury — and Tory MPs — want

taxes to fall rather than rise still further.

Increases in inflation and interest rates

are already driving up the cost of debt.

That leaves raiding other budgets, or

being much more picky about the

government’s priorities. But that will be

a hard argument for the Treasury to

have with the rest of Whitehall.

The situation would be looking a lot

sunnier if there were a return to robust

growth. But with taxes on business set to

rise in each of the next two years — with

the introduction of the levy being

followed by a hike in corporation tax

in 2023, along with the withdrawal of

the super-deduction on business

investment — that may prove hard to

come by. And even if the government

were to take a sharply pro-enterprise

turn, investment and confidence would

inevitably take a knock for as long as the

virus is out there.

Indeed, we may already be starting to

see a permanent structural shift towards

a post-Covid economy. Sectors such as

hospitality and transport are finding it

harder and harder to recruit staff, from

bartenders all the way up to airline

pilots, because people don’t want to run

the risk of a stop-start career. If those

One of the most

powerful

questions any

opposition can

ask is: ‘Are you

better off today

than you were?’

Never mind the by-election bloodbath

— it’s Rishi who faces a real nightmare

and allowing us to develop

clever vaccines. Science was,

and is, a global effort. So

perhaps those obsessed with

racist maths should just shut

their pi-holes.

Aidan Ruff, Alnwick,

Northumberland

No boundaries

I have a PhD in biochemistry

from Cambridge. I originally

come from a working-class

background. I am proud of

both things. What does

science have to do with class,

ethnicity or colonialism?

Absolutely nothing.

Jeff Edwards, Dinas Powys,

South Glamorgan

Creative account

Liddle has a good laugh at a

New Zealand government

working party demanding

that a Maori creation legend

Clowning street

We were promised the new

Churchill. What we got is a

second-rate Benny Hill.

Simon Greenfield

Birmingham

Party politics

What bothers me most about

all the parties in Downing

Street is that the prime

minister was negotiating a

key Brexit text at the time.

Surely both he and his staff

should have been busy with

that.

We knew all along he was

not paying attention, and this

proves it.

Paul Rogers

Kleinmachnow, Germany

Trying times

Johnson is still the same guy

who won a majority, warts

and all. It is the overall

direction of the country that

matters, not silly headlines

about staff parties at the

wrong time or what colour

his flat was painted.

His heart is in the right

place; he tries hard; Britain

bumbles on as always despite

the difficulties; and there

have been successes as well

as failures.

Of course he can be faulted

on managerial competence,

but he’s the PM, not a

manager.

Anthony Polatajko

Woking

legislation (Comment, last

week). Perhaps, rather than a

cause of decline, the inertia

of Congress is actually a

source of America’s success.

The American constitution

has a tendency to gridlock

centralised power, rendering

it ineffective. Maybe we could

learn from their approach.

Peter Denton, Oxford

1783 William Pitt, 24,

becomes Britain’s youngest

prime minister

1843 Dickens publishes A

Christmas Carol

1981 Eight lifeboatmen die

off Cornwall in attempt to

rescue stricken coaster

1984 Margaret Thatcher

signs joint declaration to

return Hong Kong to China

Bringing up the rear

You note the incident in a

Gloucestershire A&E when a

patient presented with an

unexploded artillery shell in

his posterior (Comment, last

week). This is new to us. In

our long experience in

emergency care, the objects

we have removed have been

limited to bottles, sex toys

and jam jars (which staff then

used as a vase). The

explanation, though, was

similar to the one we heard so

often: “I sat on it.”

Ramkrishna and Gitika

Banerjee, Sunderland

Secret cupboards

You published a letter last

week from my wife saying

that, unlike the Johnsons, she

had paid for a new kitchen. I

knew nothing of this. I have

launched an official inquiry.

Kim Deslandes, Newport

The game of the name

Over the years I have been

called Viyella, Vuyella,

Vooella, Vyooella, Voella,

Vyelwa, Vyelva, Vyla and

Viola (“It’s OK if you can’t say

my name”, Letters, last week).

No harm was intended. If

every one were taken as a

microaggression, I would be

in a permanent foaming rage.

Life is just too short.

Vuyelwa (Voo-yel-wuh) Carlin

Craven Arms, Shropshire

Call sign

If my name is mispronounced

as “surgiant” when I answer

the phone, it immediately

alerts me to the fact that I am

being cold-called. It also

allows me to respond

truthfully: “No one of that

name lives here.”

Peter Sergeant

Loughborough

Departure pointless

Mark Francois’s memoir is

titled Spartan Victory (News

Review, last week). Brexit was

not a Spartan victory but a

textbook Pyrrhic one. He

won, and disaster was

accomplished.

Sydney Kaye, Cape Town

Hancock-a-hoop

They say laughter is the best

medicine. If so, I am grateful

to Robert Hutton for his piece

on the comeback of Matt

Hancock (News Review, last

week), which has boosted my

immunity to both Covid and

Hancock himself.

Karen Rowe, Wantage,

Oxfordshire

Cut to the chaste

You say young people are

concerned Covid has kept

them celibate (News, last

week). To be celibate means

you have no wish to marry. I

doubt this was in the minds of

virgin students; rather, they

are dismayed that Covid has

kept them chaste.

Judy Oliver

Potton, Bedfordshire

Postman only rings twice

Amazon’s new video doorbell

distinguishes regular visitors

from strangers (News, last

week). Useful, but at our

house we get some clues

already. When grandchildren

come to the door, they ring

the bell about 19 times. Even

the most determined parcel-

deliverer doesn’t do that.

John Wagstaff, Shirley, London

Rosemary Conley, diet and

fitness coach, 75

Béatrice Dalle, actress, 57

Daisy Goodwin, writer, 60

Jake Gyllenhaal, actor, 41

Richard Hammond,

presenter, 52

Steven Isserlis, cellist, 63

Bridget Phillipson, shadow

education secretary, 38

CORRECTIONS & CLARIFICATIONS

Maths beats myths — and science is not racist

“Science is not ‘white’. Nor is

it imperialist,” says Rod

Liddle, dismayed by the

teaching of the Maori creation

story on an equal footing with

science’s explanation of our

origins (Comment, last week).

Quite — and the New Zealand

academics who are leading

the decolonisation of science

and mathematics might want

to study a little history.

As the first cities grew in

the Middle East, not a notably

white region, the Sumerians

developed early maths to tally

crops and levy taxes. The

Arab world gave us the father

of algebra, al-Khwarizmi, and

the Arabic system of numerals

we still use. Other great

advances came from ancient

Greece and from India — a

visit to the medieval

observatories in Delhi is

illuminating. All those

civilisations were empire-

builders and slave-keepers,

but none was particularly

white.

The misplaced resentment

of some is no reason for the

rest of us to abandon a system

that is taking us to the stars

be taught in schools. But he

misses the point — as does

Professor Garth Cooper when

he says that “it falls far short

of what we can define as

science itself ”.

Of course it does. A ten-

year-old child, just as much as

an eminent scientist, knows

that the legend is not what

happened. The truth of the

legend is not the issue.

Teaching it in schools is a way

to acknowledge the equality

of Maori culture with white

European culture.

George Muir, London SW6

The symbol truth

Myths are not primitive

science, now superseded.

They are symbolic stories,

imaginatively expressing

areas of meaning, value and

purpose not covered by the

scientific method, and

therefore not opposed to it.

Andrew Whiteley, Consett, Co

Durham

By the book

The De-Enlightenment that

Liddle identifies is more than

a century old. It emerged

when American biblical

fundamentalists rejected

Darwin’s theory of evolution

by natural selection. Now that

theory is dismissed as racist

and sexist. The ironies

abound.

The Rev Stephan Harker,

Lancaster

Astronomically backward

Universities are beginning to

resemble the Catholic Church

at the time of Galileo.

Martin Bryars, Stockbridge,

Hampshire

Exchange of ideas

Liddle comments on the row

over his speech at Durham

University.

Last week you published a

number of letters from

people who had read his

earlier column on MPs’

salaries. They disagreed with

him and took the trouble to

state their opinions in a calm

and considered way.

Perhaps the directing staff

and students’ union at

Durham could take note of

this. It’s called a debate.

Mike Pinder, York

The scholar al-Khwarizmi gave us the word ‘algorithm’

Richard Hammond is 52

LETTERS

TO THE EDITOR

JOIN THE CONVERSATION ONLINE

Never work with children

and animals, they say, and

Matt Rudd had a cautionary

tale about his third child and

a bearded dragon to back that

up. Gill loved it: “We have

made the same mistake, but

with child 2. I swear if we’d

bought a horse it would have

cost us less in both time and

money. Storm, our bearded

dragon, causes no end of

traumas. When we first got

her, we fed her crickets. Big

mistake. I would come home

from late shifts to find

crickets having late-night

parties on the stairs or in the

bathroom. And the baths —

you didn’t mention the baths.

You are supposed to bathe

them three times a week. And

send their poo off to be

checked for salmonella twice

a year. And does the child

ever even look at the bearded

dragon? No. He just likes

telling people he has one

because it’s cool.” Matt Rudd

replied: “Harriet and I are

laughing our heads off at this.

We didn’t know about the

baths or the salmonella, so

I’m ignoring that.” “No!”

yelped Caroline Buck.

“Don’t ignore the salmonella.

Lizard-type creatures tend to

harbour salmonella. I believe

that the record for the

number of people infected is

held by Denver zoo for a

Komodo dragon that infected

loads of innocent admirers.

Take your stool sample now.

Or, at the very least, the

dragon’s.” Just don’t mix it up

with the Christmas cards.

Rob Nash

Your comments from

thesundaytimes.co.uk

Now, is everyone ready for a

spot of competitive

Christmassing, with matching

pyjamas for the whole family?

We suspect Fairplay isn’t:

“My younger friends,

relatives and colleagues do

this, as well as family-themed

Halloween outfits. Resigned

myself to the fact I’m a

different generation.”

Westerama sighed: “My

children would kill me if I

tried to dress them up as my

accessories”, and Richard

Shaw warned: “If there is one

way for a father to look like a

complete twerp and lose any

credibility with his family, it is

to wear matching pyjamas. I

can only imagine the shame,

had I been subject to that in

1966. It would have damaged
      me for life.”

The Sunday Times,

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London SE1 9GF

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had routinely missed chances

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CCRC disagrees with this and

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today, the only way I shall

vote Conservative in future is

if the alternative is even

worse.

Now that Corbyn has gone,

that seems unlikely.

Mike Gander

Coltishall, Norfolk

Fool’s hold

How long will the electorate

put up with a mendacious,

bumbling leader? After a

while this reflects on us. Are

we really so gullible as to be

led by such a man? He may

take us all for fools, but we

must start to take ourselves

seriously.

Ian Hislop

Kingsbridge, Devon

No conservative

can vote Johnson

With scandals surrounding

our prime minister, Francis

Elliott asks if Boris Johnson

can “wriggle out of this one”

(News Review, last week). I

hope not.

I have consistently voted

Conservative in 16 general

elections because I believed

in the essential idea of

conservatism: preserve what

is right and change what is

wrong for the good of the

whole country, not a faction.

But unless a believable

candidate can replace the

corrupt buffoon in power

The unjabbed

endanger us all

I have an answer for Siobhan

O’Rourke (“I’m jabbed — but

you shouldn’t have to be”,

Letters, last week). She asks if

medical professionals who

feel anger towards those who

choose not to be vaccinated

against Covid feel the same

way when they treat smokers,

drinkers and the obese.

I can tell her that,

absolutely, we do. All of them

are responsible for their own

predicament. The difference,

however, is that smokers,

drinkers and the obese do not

constitute a death threat to

us, and to other people, as

sacrifices on the altar of their

principles.

Dr Jane Stanford, London

SW13

Smoke and mirrors

The situations of smokers and

the unvaccinated are hardly

comparable. Smoking is a vile

habit, but many older

smokers became addicted

long before the impact on

health was fully known.

Some people are simply

trying to make excuses for the

fact that, by remaining

unvaccinated, they are

responsible for the pressure

on beds in hospitals.

Mark Robinson, Lisburn

Waste of good doctors

Yet again the NHS is forced to

administer an enormous

national vaccination

programme to the exclusion

of much of its normal life-

saving work.

Given that we will be living

with Covid for the foreseeable

future, the government

should set up a dedicated

National Vaccination Service,

staffed by trained

vaccinators, volunteers and

retired health professionals.

Using GPs to administer

vaccinations, effectively

shutting down their

surgeries, is a clear waste of

precious resources. If this is

to happen every few months

as new variants appear, we

will permanently surrender

much of value in the NHS.

Mike Weatherstone, Norwich

Spot the missing

swearword

I am increasingly irritated by

your tendency to put

asterisks into words that,

presumably, you think will

offend readers. Tim Shipman

(News, last week) gives us

“t****ery”. Maybe I’m naive

Less government,

more growth

Matthew Syed rightly praises

America’s economic success,

and puts the pervasive view

that America is in decline

down to the incompetence of

politicians — in particular,

Congress’s failure to pass

but I can’t for the life of me

think what this is.

In any case, surely readers

of The Sunday Times are

sufficiently adult and

sophisticated to be allowed to

read what was actually said

without having a fit of the

vapours.

Paul Usher

Caddington, Bedfordshire