with this line of argument is that higher output per man-hour in the fu-
ture may well accrue to workers, or to the entrepreneurs who create new
firms, rather than to the owners of existing firms. Nonetheless it is inter-
esting to ask whether the stock market has historically predicted variations
in productivity growth. We can extend our previous analysis by substitut-
ing productivity growth, in place of earnings growth, as the variable to be
forecasted.
184 CAMPBELL AND SHILLER
Figure 5.6.