The Times - UK (2021-12-21)

6 2GM Tuesday December 21 2021 | the times

News

Ministers have discussed banning large
live events such as football matches and
concerts if the Omicron variant contin-
ues to surge.
Boris Johnson held a two-hour cabi-
net meeting yesterday to consider fur-
ther restrictions. Most ministers
opposed new curbs and he delayed a
decision, in effect saving the Christmas
plans of millions as it would take
48 hours for parliament to be recalled.
However, several ministers are un-
derstood to have suggested a ban on
large events if Omicron cases continue
to climb, rather than more sweeping re-

strictions. The option is one of several
in reserve for after Christmas.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the Com-
mons, said the government should trust
people to do the right thing rather than
introduce further restrictions. He said
many people had voluntarily changed
their behaviour as the threat posed by
Omicron became clear.
The prime minister said Rees-Mogg’s
argument was interesting but asked
how he would justify his approach at a
press conference. He said that as prime
minister he had to look after everyone’s
health. Rees-Mogg is understood to
have responded: “I would stand up and
say I respect them for doing the right
thing.” The prime minister is said to
have suggested that this would not be

The options

Guidance The prime minister would

continue to advise people to be

cautious and to limit social contact

with others, avoiding a

confrontation with Tory MPs.

Banning live events Ministers

discussed banning concerts and

football matches if Omicron

continues to spread.

A circuit-breaker Officials have

drawn up plans for a two-week

circuit breaker that would start next

week, banning household mixing.

A full lockdown In the worst case

scenario ministers are considering a

full lockdown, but they remain

scarred by the impact of the last

lockdown on businesses and

people’s lives. Seen as very unlikely.

Young teenagers asked to

book second vaccine slots

Bookings have opened for children

aged 12 to 15 in England to get their

second dose of a coronavirus vaccine.

All those in that age group who are

eligible will be able to book their second

jab through the NHS’s online national

booking service if their first dose was

more than 12 weeks ago, in line with

guidance from the Joint Committee on

Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).

Second doses will also be offered

through existing school immunisation

services from January 10.

The push to get young people

vaccinated comes as cases of the

Omicron variant are rising rapidly

across London and the rest of the UK.

Over the weekend nearly 1.7 million

jabs were delivered in England in a

renewed effort to increase vaccination

rates.

Vaccinations for 12 to 15-year-olds in

schools began in September, and more

than 1.3 million young people have had

a jab so far. More than 75,000 are now

eligible for a second dose.

According to data from NHS

England, more than 30,000 children

aged 12 to 15 in England have already

had a second dose.

Professor Stephen Powis, NHS

England’s medical director, said: “NHS

staff are pulling out all the stops to get

everyone who is eligible vaccinated,

with more pop-up clinics and extended

hours, so it is vital people play their part

by coming forward as soon as possible

to get protected.”

In line with national guidance,

consent letters including information

about the Covid-19 vaccination are sent

out to parents and guardians before the

school clinics.

Parents and guardians are asked to

attend vaccination sites with their

children if they are receiving a jab

outside of school hours and consent

will be sought on the day.

News Coronavirus

Time to trust the people, but not

enough if the NHS were at risk of being

overwhelmed.

Rees-Mogg is also understood to

have criticised official modelling sug-

gesting that without further action

3,000 Omicron patients a day could

need a hospital bed. He asked if John-

son had read an article by Fraser Nel-

son, editor of The Spectator, question-

ing the assumptions behind the data.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scien-

tific adviser, is said to have responded

directly to Rees-Mogg that the model-

ling had included scenarios where the

Omicron variant was deemed less

severe than the Delta variant.

Sajid Javid, the health secretary, is

said to have been the most cautious,

highlighting the modelling and the im-

pact that 3,000 admissions a day would

have on hospitals. He did not, however,

explicitly push for restrictions now.

He said that not making a decision

about restrictions was itself a decision,

given the rising number of people with

Omicron and increasing hospital ad-

missions in London. He agreed that al-

though there were gaps in the data and

uncertainty, there could be no dispute

that Omicron was spreading quickly.

Javid updated the meeting on the

booster campaign, antivirals and efforts

to build NHS capacity and said officials

were drawing up plans for Nightingale

hospitals in existing hospitals’ grounds.

Rishi Sunak attempted to defer to

others by saying the prime minister had

heard enough of his views. However,

after being further prompted by John-

son, he gave a brief speech.

Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, had

to leave before adding anything.

Grant Shapps, the transport secre-

tary, was said to have been the strongest

opponent of further restrictions, insist-

ing that more data was needed on the

severity of Omicron before a lockdown

could be justified.

Johnson’s delay on a decision will

avert the threat of resignations by cabi-

net ministers in the short term. How-

ever, if he pushes ahead with plans for a

two-week circuit breaker next week he

is likely to meet significant resistance.

Ministers have been emboldened by

Lord Frost, who quit as Brexit minister

on Saturday over Covid restrictions

and the direction of the government.

How Johnson can survive his MPs’

cold anger, William Hague, page 29

The new purity cult of politics is

WhatsApp, Hugo Rifkind, page 31

Compromised government must act to

slow infections, leading article, page 33

The national picture

How many people have Covid-19?

There were 91,743 new cases reported

yesterday, bringing the total so far to

11,453,121 or 171.5 for every 1,000 people

60.8% increase from seven days ago

(based on seven-day moving average)

How many are in hospital?

There are 7,482 patients in hospital being

treated. 879 patients are on ventilators. An

additional 919 patients have been

admitted, up 6 per cent in the seven days

to December 14 when this data was last

updated

How many have died?

Yesterday, there were 44 deaths reported,

bringing the total number of deaths in the

past seven days to 786. The rolling

average number of daily deaths is 112.3,

down from 118.7 a day a week ago

How does 2021 compare?

There were 11,659 deaths from all causes

recorded in England and Wales in the week

to December 3, of which the coronavirus

accounted for 6.8 per cent. The number of

weekly deaths was 1,302 higher than the

five-year average for the same time of year

Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

0

1,

2,

3,

4,

Hospital admissions

Seven-day

average

Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

0

20,

40,

60,

80,

National

R number

1.0 to 1.

Daily cases

Seven-day

average

Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

0

500

1,

1,

Deaths

Seven-day

average

Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

0

5,

10,

15,

20,

2020/

Five-year average

Steven Swinford Political Editor

Season’s greetings Socially distanced worshippers basked in the glow of 3,

Analysis

T

he best

estimates from

Sage were clear:

that if nothing

changed hospital

admissions would reach

at least 3,000 a day and

potentially far more

(Chris Smyth writes).

But the cabinet did not

believe them. Ministers

did not want to take away

the nation’s freedom on

scenarios with huge

uncertainties, when key

data remained unclear.

Many Conservatives go

further and accuse Sage’s

modellers of considering

only the most pessimistic

outcomes. The critics say

that the models do not

consider the possibility

that Omicron is less

severe than Delta, which

could mean restrictions

are not needed.

Professor Graham

Medley, head of Sage’s

SPI-M modelling group,

insists this is wrong and

that “modellers do not

only model the worst

outcomes”. He said that

scientists “need some

idea of what is most

informative to

government”, which

naturally leads them to

ask questions about

potential bad outcomes.

“Modellers are not told

what to model, just

informed what is most

useful to policy choices,”

he said.

Warwick University

models suggest a very

simple conclusion, that if

Omicron is half as severe

as Delta the peak in

hospital admissions

would be halved.

There is no doubt this

would make a big

difference to the NHS.

The question is how

likely this is, and

modelling cannot

answer that.

Medley insists that his

models “highlight the key

parameters”, such as

severity of disease, and

offer pointers on how to

judge which scenarios

are most likely.

Professor Chris Whitty,

the chief medical officer

for England, and other

government scientific

advisers believe there is

no evidence yet that

Omicron is intrinsically

less severe.

Sajid Javid, the health

secretary, sought

yesterday to “kick the

tyres” on Sage’s model by

consulting outside

experts. While some are

more optimistic, there is

widespread agreement

there is huge uncertainty

about these key facts.

Given this, Boris

Johnson has chosen not

to act — or his party has

chosen for him. He may

get lucky if the data in

the next few days is much

better than hoped. If he is

unlucky, by the time the

data is clear it may be too

late to avoid calamity for

the NHS and a long

period of lockdown to

help it to recover.

Cabinet have had enough of their experts