the times | Tuesday December 21 2021 2GM 9
News
Global cases Deaths per million population
274,702,Global deaths
5,354,Countries reporting most deathsMost new casesUS
Brazil
India
Mexico
Russia
Peru
UK
Indonesia1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Data supplied by Johns Hopkins University. US data
fluctuates because of irregular reporting by different states.
Figures as of 6pm yesterday. Sources: UK government,
Our World in Data, selected countriesUK
US
France
Russia
Italy
Turkey
Vietnam
Poland1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8World update
Rank Now Jan 31
1 , 234
1 , 299
1,4 31
1 ,
1,36 7
1 , 523
797
949
1,0 48
1 ,0 57
1 , 309
1 , 460
1,
1 ,3 756,
4,
3,
3,
3,
3,
3,
3,
2,
2,
2,
2,
2,
1,Peru
Bulgaria
Bosnia & H
Hungary
N. Macedonia
Czech Rep
Georgia
Romania
Brazil
Argentina
US
Italy
UK
Spain1 2 3 4 5 6 7 811
15
17
25
26
3291,806,70,
48,
27,
24,
16,
16,
15,617,
477,
297,
291,
202,
147,
144,( 16 )
( 13 )
( 7 )
( 14 )
( 10 )
( 5 )
( 40 )
( 31 )
( 24 )
( 23 )
( 11 )
( 6 )
( 4 )
( 9 )The Covid-19 self-isolation period is to
be cut to seven days in a move that may
save Christmas for tens of thousands of
people and ease staff shortages.
Sajid Javid, the health secretary, has
been pushing hard for the change.
Advice is expected imminently from
government scientists that people can
be released from isolation earlier if they
get the all-clear from lateral flow tests.
Once the change is confirmed,
people will no longer have to isolate for
ten days if they get negative lateral flow
tests on day six and seven in a boost that
could affect millions over the coming
weeks.
The new rules are expected to come
into effect this week, although details
are being finalised.
Tony Blair, the former prime minis-
ter, is suggesting that confirmed cases
of coronavirus should be released from
isolation after two negative lateral flow
tests as part of a wider scaling up of
testing and antiviral drugs to “stay
ahead” of the epidemic.
The Cabinet Office has suggested
allowing unvaccinated contacts to be
freed from isolation through the use of
daily lateral flow tests to bolster the
workforce in the coming weeks. Under
present rules people who come into
contact with a confirmed case must
isolate for ten days if they are not
double vaccinated.
Some in government fear that if the
rules are not relaxed then parts of the
economy could be crippled by
mass isolation. Others have pushed
back against the changes, fearing that
loosening the self-isolation regime
could significantly increase transmis-
sion by the unvaccinated, given that
daily testing is not enforced. There are
also concerns that the change could
harm vaccine uptake by removing one
of the incentives to get jabbed.
The NHS, hospitality sector and
many others are struggling with staff
shortages caused by soaring infection
rates in recent weeks. The Natural His-
tory Museum in London announced
that it was closing for a week because of
a lack of staff, while a number of West
End performances are shutting down
because cast and crew have the virus.
The health service and the food sup-
ply chain are also battling widespread
staff absences; there have been warn-
ings that hospitals will struggle to pro-vide normal care over the new year, and
there are concerns about reduced
choices on supermarket shelves.
Javid asked the UK Health Security
Agency to review the evidence on
isolation periods and it is understood
that it has concluded that testing can
allow people to be released up to three
days earlier.
The Scientific Advisory Group for
Emergencies has also suggested that
people should avoid social events if
anyone in their household tests posi-
tive. Although this is not expected to
become official guidance, Sage con-
cluded that it would be helpful to use
lateral flow devices “at a group level” aswell as individually. “If there is one
positive test within a group (such as a
household) there is a significant chance
that others are already infected, even if
not yet testing positive.
“If one person from a group tests
positive prior to an event or gathering,
then none should attend,” Sage
minutes say.
In a report today, the Tony Blair
Institute calls for an expansion of
Covid-19 passes, antiviral drugs for all
over-50s testing positive and vaccina-
tion of primary school children. People
should take lateral flow tests at least
every three days and saliva tests should
be made widely available, it adds.Moderna booster raises
antibody levels 37-fold
The 50mg Moderna booster vaccine
being rolled out in the UK produces a
37-fold increase in antibodies against
Omicron, according to laboratory
results quoted by the American
company. A 100mg dose boosts levels
more than 80-fold, it said.
Last week a team at Imperial
College London estimated that
booster doses would be 80 per cent to
85 per cent effective at preventing
severe disease caused by Omicron.
Boosters were estimated to be 97 per
cent effective in preventing serious
disease in the Delta variant.
The BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine is
also being used for boosters; the
makers have said that a third dose
increases antibody levels against
Omicron 25-fold. Pfizer is developing
a vaccine tailored to Omicron which
it has said could be ready by March.coronavirus in brief
Regular lateral flow tests
can keep people working
Regular lateral flow testing can be a
viable and safe way to keep people at
work, the results of a pilot scheme in
Liverpool suggests. Large-scale
community testing in the city
between last December and July
reduced Covid-19 hospitalisations by
32 per cent, according to analysis. The
reduction was calculated by careful
matching to other parts of the
country in a similar position to the
city but without rapid testing. The
analysis by Liverpool University
found that a “test to release”
programme for key workers such as
police, fire service, social care and
NHS staff had saved 8,292 key worker
workdays. Daily tests were used as an
alternative to quarantine for
confirmed contacts. Of 34 identified
Covid-19 cases, only three had been
missed by daily LFTs.Ex-Ofsted chief goes back
to school amid staff gaps
A former chief inspector of Ofsted
will return to the classroom next
month to help address staff shortages
caused by the spread of the Omicron
variant. Sir Michael Wilshaw, who
was Ofsted chief from 2012 until 2016,
is to teach history at a south London
school from January. Nadhim Zahawi,
the education secretary, has called on
former teachers to rejoin the
workforce to help with the shortages.
Sir Michael, who is over 70, told Sky
News that schools should be kept
open “at all costs”. The Association of
School and College Leaders, said: “It
remains to be seen whether this
initiative can attract ex-teachers in
the kind of numbers to make any real
difference, but we feel it is highly
unlikely it will happen quickly
enough to help schools when they
return in the first week of January.”News
Self-isolation time cut to
save Christmas gatherings
Chris Smyth
Patrick Maguire Red Box EditorNHS staff absences are rising, with
workers forced to take on extra
shifts to keep services going, health
service leaders said yesterday.
Doctors and nurses said they
were concerned about the impact
on staff members already facing
burnout after almost two years of
the pandemic and longstanding
vacancies. The NHS Confederation
said that hospitals and clinics in
London were reporting rates of staff
on sick leave of at least 8 per cent.
The capital is at the forefront of
the Omicron wave. Hospital
admissions are rising, as is the
number of staff needing to isolate
due to infection or contact with a
Covid sufferer.
Patricia Marquis, England
director at the Royal College of
Nursing, said: “The next few weeks
paint a very bleak picture for
nursing staff already physically and
emotionally exhausted by what has
happened throughout the pandemic.
In many places they are already
starting to go off sick themselves
with Covid-19, but also mental and
physical exhaustion.
“Before the pandemic there
weren’t enough staff to deliver what
was needed. Staff are now looking
forward, thinking: ‘Oh my goodness,
what is coming?’”
Danny Mortimer, chief executive
of NHS Employers, which is part ofthe NHS Confederation, said
absence rates were increasing both
in London and elsewhere. “With
reports suggesting there could be
130,000 staff off sick on Christmas
Day across mental health,
ambulance, community and
hospitals services and with bed
occupancy currently at 93 per cent,
this is increasingly worrying,” he
said. “If cases continue to rise at this
rapid rate, sadly wide-scale
disruption is inevitable.”
He called on the government to
act quickly in response to data and
modelling, and the public “to
continue to do everything they can
to keep transmission down”. He
added: “This isn’t just about
protecting the NHS, it’s about
protecting ourselves, our friends and
family and each other more
generally.”
Chris Hopson, chief executive of
NHS Providers, said: “The impact
on the workloads of remaining staff
who are already working incredibly
hard given the huge demands on
the service is a major concern.
Unlike last January, trusts are not
only dealing with Covid-19 care but
also seeing real pressure on
emergency care, tackling a
significant backlog of routine care
and accelerating and expanding the
vaccination campaign.
“Any decision to stand down or
reduce services will only be taken as
a last resort.”Rising absence strains NHS
Kat Lay Health EditorA cancer nurse recalling her exhaustion in May of last year and a son who
missed sitting with his mother in her garden for the last time because he did
not want to break the rules were among people who took to Twitter to vent
their feelings about Downing Street staff enjoying a lockdown drink together