the times | Wednesday December 22 2021 2GM 11
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healthcare group, also found that,
among those who were admitted to
hospital, the disease caused by Omi-
cron appeared to be less serious, with
5 per cent of hospitalised patients need-
ing intensive care compared with 22 per
cent during the Delta wave.
is omicron really less
dangerous?
It is impossible to know whether the
variant is intrinsically less severe. The
better outcomes seen in South Africa
could be due to the population having
higher levels of immunity from vacci-
nation and prior infection. Britain’s
population is older, which dramatically
increases Covid risks. “We can’t be sure
that other countries will have the same
experience,” Jassat said.
Two groups of researchers, at
Cambridge and the University of Hong
Kong, have run laboratory experiments
that suggest that Omicron may do
less damage to the lungs. It is plausible
that this means it causes less severe
disease than Delta. But it’s not certain.
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial
College looked at data on patients in
England and found no evidence Omi-
cron was less severe. “It is early days,”
he said. “There’s no signal of a substan-
tial change yet, but the limited data we
have doesn’t rule out changes of the or-
der of [plus or minus 50 per cent].”
A less severe virus could still over-
whelm the NHS. Professor Rowland
Kao, of Edinburgh University, has been
running models for Scotland. One
scenario assumes that the restrictions
already in place and the voluntary
changes people make will result in a
20 per cent decline in transmission.
Even then though, the model’s
central estimate — not the worst case
— suggests hospitalisation rates could
be three times greater than the highest
rate seen in the pandemic so far. “And
what that means is that severity would
have to decline a lot before we can
say that it won’t be a very hard time for
the NHS.”
Confusion over Covid restrictions
and rule-breaking, Letters, page 36Nicola Sturgeon has cancelled all
official Hogmanay celebrations in Scot-
land and a New Year’s Eve event in Tra-
falgar Square, central London, has been
abandoned as coronavirus infections
surge across Britain.
Theatres, museums and galleries
continue to close early for Christmas
because of the disruption and uncer-
tainty brought by the Omicron variant.
Andrew Lloyd Webber said he was
devastated that his West End produc-
tion of Cinderella would be cancelled
until February. His is one of dozens of
productions that have been shut down
in the capital over infection fears and
staffing shortages.
Sturgeon announced that Scotland’s
traditional Hogmanay celebrations
were to be cancelled and live sports
would be “effectively spectator-free” for
three weeks from Boxing Day as part of
new restrictions. All outdoor events will
be limited to 500 people. The first minis-
ter said that the move had been made to
cut down the transmission of Omicron,
which has become the dominant strain
in Scotland.
Announcing the restrictions, she said:
“This will of course make sports match-
es, including football, effectively specta-
tor-free over this three-week period.
And it will also mean that large-scale
Hogmanay celebrations, including that
planned here in our capital city, will not
proceed. I know how disappointing this
will be for those looking forward to
these events, and for the organisers.”
Chief Superintendent Phil Davison,
who is in charge of policing Hogmanay
in Edinburgh, asked that “those who
had been planning to attend these
events do not make their way to the city
centre”.
The list of London theatres having to
close because of cast and crew members
testing positive for Covid-19 continued
to grow. More than half of the main
West End theatres were forced to cancel
productions last weekend. CinderellaFigures suggest
variant’s ability
to evade jabs
People in their twenties and thirties,
city dwellers and international travel-
lers are among the most likely to test
positive for Omicron, analysis suggests.
The Office for National Statistics
figures reinforce concerns about the
variant’s ability to evade immunity,
with people who were previously in-
fected or vaccinated more likely to have
Omicron than Delta. The study includ-
ed people who tested positive for any
variant between November 29 and
December 12. The chances of having
Omicron was higher among people in
deprived areas and, evidence suggest-
ed, among ethnic minorities.70 per cent of business. Other data suggests that Britons are still going about their business, albeit with greater caution
Police absences increased by 20 per
cent in one week amid the spread of
Omicron and more officers are expect-
ed to go on sick leave in the lead-up to
Christmas.
Chief constables have considered
whether vaccinations should be man-
datory for officers and staff. Instead,
they decided to improve information
for the minority who have not had a jab.
By last Friday, the absence level had
risen to 7.4 per cent of police officers
and staff in England and Wales, which
comprises more than 220,000 people. It
had been static for months at about
6 per cent.
A policing “ethical dilemma” meet-
ing at the National Police Chiefs
Council (NPCC) heard there was an ex-
pectation that absenteeism would in-
crease over coming weeks “as the Omi-
cron infection wave spreads”. Agenda
documents said that if mandatory vac-
cinations were not put in place, there
was a question of whether unvaccinat-Police forces hit by 20%
weekly rise in absences
ed staff on the front line should be “de-
ployed differently in order to better
protect their colleagues and the public”.
Absences have been as high as 10 per
cent during the worst of the pandemic
and sources insisted there was no cause
for concern at present. They said that
forces could ultimately rely on mutual
aid, where officers were deployed to
areas in need. There was no suggestion
this was needed yet.
The NPCC said the absentee rate
could fluctuate and that mandatory
jabs had been considered in light of the
same requirement for care home staff.
Meanwhile, the Royal College of
Nursing said the coming weeks “paint a
very bleak picture” for exhausted staff.
According to NHS data, staff absences
due to Covid or self-isolation at acute
trusts rose from 11,375 on November 29
to 13,468 on December 9. The figures
then fell back to 12,240 on December 12.
In London, where Omicron cases
continue to grow, on December 12 staff
absences had risen by 31 per cent from
the start of the month to 1,540.Fiona Hamilton Crime EditorKat Lay Health EditorNews
Fireworks axed
as cities end year
with a whimper
was one of the biggest productions to be
called off because of “Covid-related
absences”, alongside Hamilton and The
Lion King. Yesterday Lloyd Webber
wrote on Twitter: “Once again, this
wretched virus has put paid to the joy of
entertaining audiences, something that
I hold so dear.
“Sadly this is the right thing to do, not
just for the safety of our cast, musicians
and backstage crew, but for the quality
of the show we give our audiences who
travel long distances and make signifi-
cant investments to come and see us.
Rest assured, Cinderella will reopen as
soon as this wave is licked and we know
we can give our audiences the fantastic
time they deserve.”
On Monday Sadiq Khan, the mayor
of London, said that the New Year’s Eve
event in Trafalgar Square would not
take place after a 29 per cent surge in
coronavirus hospital admissions in the
capital in the past week.
Khan said that the ticketed event,
which was expected to be open to about
6,500 key workers and members of the
public, had to be cancelled because “we
must take the right steps to reduce the
spread of the virus”. The event, featur-
ing a choir and live music, was an-
nounced last month as a replacement
for the city’s fireworks display, which
was itself cancelled in October. People
planning to travel to central London to
mark the end of 2021 were asked to
watch a TV broadcast on BBC1 instead.
Manchester’s New Year’s Eve fire-
work display also became a casualty of
the new variant. Pat Karney, a member
of the city council, said that the decision
had been difficult but “we have to put
the health of our residents first”.
Rio de Janeiro and Paris are among
other cities to have called off their tradi-
tional New Year’s Eve firework displays
as Omicron spreads. This month the
German government banned the sale of
fireworks on New Year’s Eve for a
second year in a row, citing the higher
risk of burdening overwhelmed
hospitals with injuries.Katie GibbonsTOLGA AKMEN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES