Decisions under uncertainty / Decision criteria 44
Expected value criterion
St. Petersburg Paradox
(Daniel
Bernoulli
, 1738): Consider the
following game. A fair coin will be tossed repeat
edly until heads comes up. If this
happens in the i-th toss, the lottery yields a money prize of 2
iEuros.
The probability of this outcome is 1/2
i.
How much will an expected valu
e maximizer be willing to pay to
play this game?
.
Since one would not suppose, at le
ast intuitively, that real-world
people would be willing to pay an
infinite amount of money to play
this game, the expected value criterion seems to be not appropriate to determine the price to play this game!
Single-period random cash
flows: Utility theory