Mathematical Modeling in Finance with Stochastic Processes

(Ben Green) #1

192 CHAPTER 5. BROWNIAN MOTION


surprising given the law of the iterated logarithm. We know that in any
neighborhood [t,t+dt] to the right oft, Brownian motion must come close
to



2 tlog logt. That is, intuitively,W(t+dt)−W(t) must be about


2 dt
in magnitude, so we would guessdW^2 ≈ 2 dtThe theorem makes it precise.


Remark.This theorem can be nicely summarized in the following way: Let
dW(t) = W(t+dt)−W(t). Let dW(t)^2 = (W(t+dt)−W(t))^2. Then
(although mathematically not rigorously) we can say:


dW(t) ∼ N(0,dt)
(dW(t))^2 ∼ N(dt,0).

Theorem 25.


lim
n→∞

∑^2 n

n=1




∣W


(


k
2 n

t

)


−W


(


k− 1
2 n

t

)∣




∣=∞


In other words, the total variation of a Brownian path is infinite, with prob-
ability 1.


Proof.


∑^2 n

n=1




∣W


(


k
2 n

t

)


−W


(


k− 1
2 n

t

)∣




∣≥


∑ 2 n
n=1


∣W(k
2 nt

)


−W


(k− 1
2 nt

)∣∣ 2


maxj=1,..., 2 n


∣W


(k
2 nt

)


−W


(k− 1
2 nt

)∣



The numerator on the right converges tot, while the denominator goes to 0
because Brownian paths are continuous, therefore uniformly continuous on
bounded intervals. Therefore the faction on the right goes to infinity.


Sources


The theorem in this section is drawn from A First Course in Stochastic
Processesby S. Karlin, and H. Taylor, Academic Press, 1975. The heuristic
proof using the weak law was taken fromFinancial Calculus: An introduction
to derivative pricing by M Baxter, and A. Rennie, Cambridge University
Press, 1996, page 59. The mnemonic statement of the quadratic variation in
differential form is derived from Steele’s text.

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