14 2GM Saturday January 1 2022 | the times
News
A smaller proportion of Covid inpa-
tients are being treated primarily for
the disease itself, rather than another
health condition, figures show.
NHS England said that of 8,
Covid-19 inpatients on December 28,
5,578, or 67 per cent, were being treated
primarily for the virus. At the start of
the month, the average was 74 per cent.
The figures reflect high rates of coro-
navirus transmission, which make inci-
dental findings of Covid-19 in patients
more likely. But they will raise hopes
that a high number of coronavirus
patients will not put as much pressure
on services as the same number would
have at earlier stages of the pandemic.
The data was among a slew of figures
released yesterday offering both
encouraging and discouraging signs
about whether the Omicron wave
might pass without severe incident.
rising infections in
older age groups
A rise in cases in older people is worry-
ing the government after gold-standard
data showed a record one in 25 people in
England was infected with Covid in the
week to Christmas. The Office for
National Statistics infection survey also
showed increasing Covid levels in
Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland,
where one person in 40 was infected.
The initial Omicron surge began in
young people but by mid-December
had started to reach older people who
are more likely to need hospital treat-
ment. By Christmas Day, more than
500 in every 100,000 over 60s were
testing positive, twice the rate of the
week before.
Officials believe the key question is
how this translates into hospital admis-
sions. Throughout the pandemic, infec-
tions in the over 60s have been the best
predictor of admissions and ministers
are said to be “watching very closely” to
see how much this is changed. It is likely
to take another week or so before it
becomes clear.
nhs staff absence rates
NHS leaders say their main concern is
staffing services. The number of staff
off work for coronavirus-related rea-
sons has nearly doubled in a fortnight.
More than a dozen hospitals have
temporarily banned visits in efforts to
protect patients and staff amid rising
Covid infections.
Data released yesterday by NHS
England, showed there were 176,
days lost due to Covid-related staff ab-
sence in the week ending December 26,
up from 124,855 the week before.
Professor Stephen Powis, national
medical director for England, said the
NHS was “on a war footing”, adding:
“Keeping as many colleagues as
possible at work will be essential.” The
week-on-week increase was highest in
London, with Covid-related absences
up 58 per cent, followed by the north-
west with a 50 per cent increase.
There was better performance on
freeing up beds, after a push for hospi-
tals to do so ahead of Christmas. On
Boxing Day there were 9,288 patients
still in hospital despite being medically
fit for discharge, down from 10,576 a
week earlier and bed occupancy fell
from 93 per cent to 87 per cent.Train cancellations caused by staff
sickness will last for weeks, industry
bosses have warned, as concern grows
that bus services will also be cut.
Hundreds of trains a day have been
scrapped and “significant” timetable
cuts are set to be made next week as rail
operators grapple with staff shortages.
More than 20 rail operators have re-
duced services or plan to do so as a re-
sult of the surge in Covid-19 infections.
Last night rail bosses warned that
cutting the isolation period to five days,
as in the US, would do little to ease pres-
sure. They said a “rolling wave of staff
sickness” meant that as one person re-
turned to work, another tested positive.
More cuts were announced yester-
day by operators in anticipation of
further staff absences. Rail bosses fear
that New Year’s Eve parties in England
will lead to more workers falling ill.
Greater Anglia said it had cancelled
about 70 services a day next week, in-
cluding between London and Norwich,
Cambridge and Ipswich, and Norwich
and Great Yarmouth.
CrossCountry, whose New Year’s EveRail delays will last weeks
and buses may be cut too
services were hit by a strike by the Rail
Maritime and Transport union, is to
axe 50 trains a day until at least January- Thameslink and Northern reduced
services until January 10, with more
cancellations expected. ScotRail is to
cut 150 services a day.
South Western Railway, which oper-
ates from London Waterloo, said it
would operate a new timetable from
January 17. Southern is suspending all
services in and out of London Victoria
until January 10.
The Rail Delivery Group, which rep-
resents operators, said it was “working
hard to provide a reliable train service”.
Absence on the railways rose to 8.9 per
cent in the week to Wednesday; this is
expected to rise next week.
Transport bosses fear that the isola-
tion crisis will extend to buses next.
Some ferries to the Scottish islands
have been cancelled.
6 Sajid Javid, the health secretary, has
pledged to do everything in his power
to avoid another lockdown. Writing in
the Daily Mail, he said: “We have
welcomed in 2022 with some of the
least restrictive measures in Europe.
Curbs on our freedom must be an
absolute last resort.”
UK approves Pfizer pill for use at home
Tom Whipple Science Editor
Ben Clatworthy
Transport CorrespondentBritain has approved a second pill for
treating Covid-19 at home after trials
showed that a Pfizer drug slashed the
likelihood of at-risk patients needing
hospital care.
The Medicines and Healthcare Prod-
ucts Regulatory Agency is one of the
first to approve the drug, known as Pax-
lovid, which is expected to be available
for use this winter.
Britain has bought 2.75 million cours-
es of the pill, which needs to be given to
people in the first few days of infection,
and it is expected it will be distributed as
part of a nationwide trial.
Distribution of the Molnupiravir an-
tiviral pill started last month.
Sajid Javid, the health secretary, said
that the drugs were not a substitute for
vaccination, but another line of de-
fence. “The UK has been a world leader
at finding and rolling out Covid-
treatments to patients,” he said.
Paxlovid works by interfering with an
enzyme used by the coronavirus to rep-
licate. In tests on more than 700 at-risk
patients, who received it within three
days of testing positive, it appeared toreduce the risk of hospital admission
and death by about 90 per cent.
Among those not receiving it, 7 per
cent ended up with severe disease com-
pared with less than 1 per cent of those
given the drug. Molnupiravir, which
has a different mechanism, reduced
hospital admissions by a third.
Because pills attack fundamental vi-
ral processes, they are less likely to be
affected by new variants.
However, there are concerns that if
the drugs are used incorrectly the virus
may develop resistance.
Sharing vaccines, letters, page 26News Coronavirus
Fewer hospital patients being
Kat Lay Health Editor
Chris Smyth Whitehall Editor
Tom Whipple Science Editor
daily government
dashboard figures
Another 189,846 new positive tests for
Covid-19 were reported in the UK, a
new record daily figure. The seven-day
average was up 48.7 per cent. Even
more worryingly, there was strong evi-
dence this was an underestimate of the
true rise. A quarter of tests are coming
back positive, the highest level since
mass testing began.
Hospital patient numbers have also
continued to rise after 2,370 admissions
in England made Wednesday the big-
gest day for hospitalisations since Janu-
ary 2021. In England, 12,395 hospital
beds were occupied by Covid-
patients yesterday. Seven days earlier,
the figure was just 7,366.
Matthew Taylor, chief executive of
the NHS Confederation, said: “We
know the data is noisy but to see the
number in hospital rising by around
1,000 a day is deeply concerning.”
However, the number of patients in
mechanical ventilation beds has re-
mained fairly steady, with 789 reported
yesterday and 742 a week earlier.
The government said a further 203
people had died within 28 days of test-
ing positive for Covid-19, with the
seven-day average down 5.3 per cent.new estimates for
vaccine effectiveness
Booster jabs are 88 per cent effective
against hospitalisation with the Omi-
cron variant, according to a UKHSA
analysis. It estimated that vaccine
effectiveness against hospitalisation
was 52 per cent after one dose and 72
per cent between two and 24 weeks
after a second dose, but dropped to 52
per cent again, before a booster dose.
UKHSA’s latest technical briefing on
the variant also offered an “encourag-
ing” assessment on the risk of hospitali-
sation, based on half a million cases.
Compared with Delta, the risk of
attending A&E or being admitted with
Omicron was approximately half, and
the risk of hospitalisation alone was
around one third.
Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser
at UKHSA, said: “The latest analysis is in
keeping with the encouraging signs we
have already seen.” But she warned that
it was “too early to draw definitive con-
clusions on hospital severity, and the in-
creased transmissibility of Omicron and
the rising cases in the over-60s popula-
tion in England means it remains highly
likely there will be significant pressure
on the NHS in coming weeks”.
6 The Omicron variant can be trans-
missible through a “whiff of infected
breath”, a government scientist has said.
Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of
the New and Emerging Respiratory
Virus Threats Advisory Group, told the
BBC: “We’ve had several iterations of
this virus going through different stages
of its evolution. It has ended up being so
infectious that it almost needs just a
whiff of infected breath and you could
get infected.”Taking a gamble Crowds flocked to Uttoxeter in Staffordshire for New Year’s Eve050,100,150,Oct Jan Apr Jul OctThe national picture
How many people have Covid-19?
There were 189,846 new cases reported
yesterday, bringing the total to 12,937,
or 193.7 for every 1,000 people
48.7% increase from seven days ago
(based on seven-day moving average)How many are in hospital?
There are 11,918 patients in hospital being
treated. 868 patients are on ventilators. An
additional 1,915 patients have been
admitted, up 49.9 per cent in the seven
days to December 27 when this data was
last updatedOct Jan Apr Jul Oct01,2,3,4,Hospital admissions
Seven-day
averageDaily casesSeven-day
averageHow many have died?
Yesterday, there were 203 deaths
reported, bringing the total number of
deaths in the past seven days to 767. The
rolling average number of daily deaths is
109.6, down from 115.7 a day a week agoHow does 2021 compare?
There were 11,930 deaths from all causes
recorded in England and Wales in the week
to December 10, of which the coronavirus
accounted for 6.4 per cent. The number of
weekly deaths was 1,235 higher than the
five-year average for the same time of yearOct Jan Apr Jul Oct05001,1,Deaths
Seven-day
averageApr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct05,10,15,20,
2020/Five-year averageNational
R number
1.0 to 1.