Realism and World Politics

citizens than the next most populous European state Russia had by far the largest
population in Europe throughout this period. Since at least 1648, however, GDP
and population have been very closely correlated, at least among the great powers.
This relationship is robust because prior to 1900 the economic productivity of nearly
all the major powers, Britain aside, derived principally from agriculture, and
agricultural productivity was largely a function of population.^30 Thus, Russia not
only had the largest population in Europe, but the largest GDP from the mid-1700s
to the mid1800s. While falling behind the United States and Japan, Russia’s GDP
never dropped below the third highest in Europe during the entire period.
Our measure of power seems to accord reasonably well with outcomes in
international affairs. Although Russia was not always victorious in its wars, it never
suffered a long-term loss of a substantial proportion of its territory or population.
Measured in square miles, Russia’s territory (even excluding its Siberian territories)
increased by more than any other European power from 1640 to 1950.^31 Wohlforth
(1997) argues that ‘Russia is by some measures the most successful imperial enterprise
in history.’^32 It would be difficult to argue that Britain did better during this period.
Britain controlled a vast amount of territory abroad and enjoyed naval supremacy.
However, Britain never controlled substantial territory in Europe and never con-
quered another major European power on its own. When major rebellions occurred

A critical analysis of power transition theory 219

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

164016451650165516601665167016751680168516901695170017051710171517201725173017351740

200

100

0

GDP* population (millions)

Austria–Hungary< 1918

France

Germany> 1871

Netherlands(UnitedProvinces)

OttomanEmpire < 191 8

Prussia < 1871

Russia/USSR

Spanish Empire < 1713

UnitedKingdom

Figure 13.1State power 1640–1740