Realism and World Politics

void the process of balancing, a key component of his theory (more on this below).^26
On the other hand, he allows that anarchy can give way to hierarchy. Here he
presupposes that there are two fundamentally different ways that politics can be
organized. Units can be ordered on the basis of hierarchy, on a vertical plane, or
anarchy, on a horizontal plane. This distinction is a purely analytical one. In the
complex real world, there will be elements of hierarchy in any anarchy and vice versa.
But Waltz is confident in his judgement that the dominant units in the contemporary
world are positioned in relation to each other on an anarchic basis.
From Waltz’s world historical perspective, therefore, it is possible to observe
system change if there is a shift in polarity within an anarchy, and also system
transformation, if anarchy gives way to hierarchy. He recognizes that both change
and transformation are regular historical features, although he insists that anarchy is,
nevertheless, a very resilient political structure. But Waltz is also very clear that
although his theory can account for the reproduction of anarchy, he can say nothing
about why or when either system change or system transformation will occur. To
make progress on this front he insists that it is necessary to develop theory at the
unit level of analysis.
Several problems with Waltz’s conception of structure have been identified. As
already indicated, even if we accept his approach to structure, it is anomalous that
he has not explored the implications of unipolarity. From a world historical per-
spective, this is without doubt a dominant structural feature of international politics.
This is very apparent in Watson’s intriguing pendulum metaphor (see Figure 17.2),
which is based on his synoptic reading of world history. Although it does not purport
to provide a fully developed theory of world history, it does make some important
claims. It reveals that anarchy is not the sole subject matter of IR, but simply

294 The paradox of parsimony

Hegemony

Anarc hyof Empire

Independent

states

Figure 17.2A simplified version of Watson’s metaphorical pendulum^27