UNDERSTANDING THE 2012 ELECTIONS| 215Figure 7.3 shows for the House of Representatives over the last generation. During
that period neither party had a House re-election rate of less than 80 percent—
even in 2006, when 100 percent of Democratic House incumbents running for re-
election were re-elected, the re-election rate for House Republican incumbents
was almost 90 percent.
Re-election rates for members of Congress are so high because senators and
representatives work to insulate themselves from electoral challenges through
tactics discussed in this chapter and in Chapter 9. Even so, congressional incum-
bents are not necessarily safe from electoral defeat. Rather, their high re-election
rates result from the actions they take every day, which are calculated to win favor
with their constituents. In normal elections these strategies are generally enough
to ensure re-election. In nationalized elections, however, they are not enough to
protect some legislators from protest votes against the disadvantaged party, as the
Democrats learned in 2010.UNDERSTANDING THE 2012 ELECTIONS
In contrast to the previous three elections, the 2012 elections might have seemed
much less dramatic: Democrats held on to their majority in the Senate, Republi-
cans continued to control the House, and President Obama was re-elected, albeit
by a narrow margin. There appeared to be no major changes in the balance of
power in the national government.
Despite this stability, the 2012 elections confi rmed that politics is confl ictual.
The two presidential candidates, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, along with the congressional candidates from each party, off ered very
diff erent ideas about the size and scope of the federal government in areas rangingINCUMBENTS RE-ELECTED
FIGURE » 7. 3
1994% of incumbentsre-elected1001996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
House Democrats House Republicans90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0ANALYZE THE ISSUES AND
OUTCOMES IN THE 2012
ELECTIONS