UNDERSTANDING THE 2012 ELECTIONS| 217the American economy was faltering due to high energy prices, the failure of sev-
eral large fi nancial fi rms, the collapse of house prices, and banks’ unwillingness to
lend money, even to well-established, secure fi rms.
In the general election, Obama’s get-out-the-vote operation was far more elabo-
rate than McCain’s, which helped Obama win key swing states. The Obama cam-
paign did all the usual things, from knocking on doors to organizing shuttle vans
to drive voters to the polls, but their operation was one of the largest and most
eff ective ever seen in a presidential race. Similar eff orts were crucial to Obama’s
success in the 2012 contest.
There were real diff erences in 2008 between Republican and Democratic
candidates on issues such as how to address economic problems, how to reform
health care, and what to do in Iraq and Afghanistan. Exit poll data showed that a
clear majority of voters cited the economy as the most important issue and that
Obama was the favorite among people who wanted the government to address the
economy.
THE 2010 MIDTERM ELECTION
In the two years following the 2008 election, Democrats managed to enact sig-
nifi cant portions of the party’s policy agenda. However, debate over these policies
exposed deep divisions within the House and Senate Democratic caucuses, as well
as strong diff erences of opinion among voters who had elected Democrats to Con-
gress and put Obama in the White House. More important, Republicans regained
the initiative, off ering proposals for sharp changes in government policy, while
most Democratic candidates seemed to avoid talking about their party’s policy
accomplishments. Many who supported Democratic candidates in 2008 switched
to become equally strong supporters of Republican candidates in 2010.
While some explanations of the 2010 contest focus on Obama’s declining popu-
larity, the fl ood of independent spending, or the rise of the Tea Party, perhaps a bet-
ter explanation is found in the procedural advantages on the Republican side. For
example, Democratic gains in the 2006 and 2008 House elections meant that as
many as 50 to 60 incumbent Democrats were running in pro-Republican districts.
These seats were winnable for Democrats as long as Republicans were tagged with
an extremely unpopular war (as in 2006) or an economy in freefall (as in 2008). But
in 2010, Republican candidates in these districts were free of these burdens for the
fi rst time in six years, giving them a decided advantage.
THE STATE OF THE COUNTRY IN 2012
As in 2008 and 2010, the economy was the central issue in the 2012 campaign.
At fi rst glance, the economic data appeared to pose a serious threat to President
Obama’s re-election chances— historically, a poor economy dooms a president’s
chance of re-election. In Obama’s case, though, many Americans seemed to hold
him only partially responsible for the economy, believing that he inherited many
of the problems from previous administrations. The result was that at the national
level, Obama’s economic policies, including the economic stimulus legislation, did
not hinder his chances of re-election, although they did not help much either.