UNDERSTANDING THE 2012 ELECTIONS| 219the primary season from several candidates, including former senator Rick Santo-
rum, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and businessman Herman Cain.
Thus, Romney’s winning the nomination was not a surprise. He was experi-
enced, having run for president in 2008 and served as governor of Massachusetts.
His record as a businessman appealed to voters who thought that government
should be run more effi ciently. He was conservative but had not taken many con-
troversial stands, such as calling for a total ban on abortion, although he did say
that he would sign such a measure if Congress enacted it. He also opposed gay mar-
riage. So, while Romney was not a perfect candidate— some voters disliked him
because of his Mormon faith and his personal fortune, which together suggested
to some that he was unfamiliar with the conditions facing average Americans— he
was well-positioned to win the Republican nomination. Doubts about whether he
was suffi ciently conservative were muted after he selected conservative represen-
tative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as his vice presidential candidate.
In contrast to Romney and the Republicans, President Obama won renomina-
tion with no signifi cant opposition, as is usual for incumbent presidents. Both par-
ties offi cially announced their nominees for president and vice president at their
national conventions in late summer. The message at the Republican convention,
articulated by Romney, Ryan, and others, was that President Obama should be
blamed for poor economic conditions and pay the price for his support of programs
such as hea lth care reform that expanded the role of government in society. Demo-
crats, in turn, emphasized how bad the economy was when Obama came into offi ce
and noted the many policy successes of Obama’s fi rst term.
The General Election: Obama vs. Romney
Early in the general election campaign, Obama appeared to be opening up a signifi -
cant lead over Romney, after a Democratic convention that was perceived to have
made an eff ective case for his re-election. With most states squarely in one can-
didate’s camp or the other, attention focused on nine swing states where neither
candidate was signifi cantly ahead: North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, New
Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa.
THE DEBATES
The presidential debates in 2012 were an exception to the rule that debates have
little infl uence on voter preferences: Obama’s poor performance in the fi rst debate,
coupled with a strong performance by Romney, shifted the electorate two or three
points toward Romney, which made the race eff ectively tied at the national level
and extremely close in the swing states. Obama recovered in the second and third
debates, responding eff ectively to Romney’s criticisms and winning back a signifi -
cant portion of the ground he lost in the fi rst debate. After the debates, the polls
settled back close to where they were before the convention, with the candidates
roughly tied in national polls, but Obama was favored to win enough swing states
to gain the electoral votes needed for another term.
CAMPAIGN STRATEGY
While both candidates refused federal funding and spent over a billion dollars
each on the campaign (along with an equal amount spent by outside groups), as