American Politics Today - Essentials (3rd Ed)

220 CHAPTER 7|ELECTIONS

we have seen in other campaigns, there is little evidence that spending had much

impact on the outcome. Part of the problem, as we discussed in earlier chapters,

is that many Americans pay relatively little attention to politics, so even a large

amount of campaign advertising may not get the message heard. Moreover, in the

presidential race, polls showed that most Americans had largely made up their

minds fairly early in the campaign, and few were open to persuasion.

Under these conditions, voter mobilization played a crucial role— and Obama’s

campaign was much better organized to get people to the polls, both for early vot-

ing and on Election Day. Many Democrats also went to court to contest laws that

required voters to show picture ID at the polls, believing that this requirement

would lower turnout by their supporters.

OBAMA’S VICTORY

In the end, Obama’s record and campaign organization were just enough: he

defeated Romney by a slight margin in the popular vote and a somewhat larger

margin in the electoral college. Figure 7.4 displays the state-by-state results,

showing Obama’s strength in the Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast states, and

Romney’s dominance of western and southern states. Obama’s victory was due to

his strength in high-population states that had large electoral vote counts (such as

California, New York, and Illinois) and his dominance of the so-called swing states.

Congressional Races

At the beginning of the 2012 campaigns, many political scientists believed that

the Democrats would lose seats in both the House and the Senate regardless of

the outcome of the presidential election. In the House, the expectation was that

THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: STATE BY STATE

FIGURE » 7.4

AK

(3)

HI

(4)

CA

(55)

AZ

(11) NM(5)

TX

(38)

OK

(7)

KS

(6)

CO

(9)

UT

6

NV

(6)

OR

(7) ID

(4) WY

(3)

SD

(3)

ND

(3)

NE

(5)

MN

(10) WI

(10) MI(16)

IN

(11)

KY (8)

OH

WV

NC (15)

VA

(15)

PA (20)

NY

(29)

VT

(3)

NH

(4)ME

(4)

MA (11)

RI (4)

CT (7)

NJ (14)

DE (3)

MD (10)

SC (9)

Obama/Biden (D)

Romney/Ryan (R)

IL

(20)

IA

(6)

MO

(10)

AR

(6)

LA

(8)

MS

(6)

AL

(9)

TN (11

GA

(16)

FL

MT

(3)

WA

(12)

DC (3)

(29)

5