222 CHAPTER 7|ELECTIONS
More commonly, however, elections are decided by broadly held perceptions
that develop over time and are hard to change. Obama’s appeal was based on his
economic stimulus programs, health care reform, ending of the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan, promises of immigration reform, and positions on social issues such
as gay marriage and abortion rights. Romney’s campaign emphasized opposition
to the stimu lus a nd hea lth ca re reforms a nd promised to rol l back reg u lations, pro-
mote a more aggressive foreign policy, and champion more conservative stands on
social policy. These diff erences are refl ected in the kinds of voters that supported
each candidate, as shown in Table 7.3.
Table 7.3 shows that Obama’s coalition was younger, more female, more diverse,
and had lower incomes than those supporting Romney. These diff erences make
sense given the issue positions and records of the two candidates and the opinions
and preferences held by these groups, as discussed in Chapter 5.
Why, then, was the presidential contest so close— even at the end? For one
thing, presidents who win overwhelming victories either have a strong economy
to talk about or an opponent who can be criticized for a weak performance or
empty promises. Obama had neither of these things; nor did Romney. Moreover,
the country is divided almost evenly on several major issues, from health care
to social policy. Even on defi cit reduction, where most people favor quick action,
there is no consensus about what policies are best. Under these conditions, it is
extraordinarily hard for any candidate to take issue positions that generate a large
supporting coalition— positions that attract some votes will drive others away. As
long as these confl icts persist, it is likely that we will continue to see close presi-
dential elections.TABLETABLE » »^ 5.17. 3
GROUPS AND VOTES IN THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
PERCENT VOTE FOR
OBAMA ROMNEY
Gender Male 48% 53%
Female 55 45
Age 18–29 60 40
30–44 52 48
45–64 51 49
65 and over 44 56
Race/Ethnicity White 41 59
Black 93 7
Hispanic 71 29
Asian 73 27
Income Under 30K 63 37
30–49K 57 43
50–100K 53 47
100K or more 46 54Source: Exit poll data at http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls (accessed
11/7/12).