The Economist (2022-01-08)

TheEconomistJanuary8th 2022 Asia 33

country’s  vaccination  campaign  had
scarcely  begun;  now,  with  around  1.45bn
doses delivered, 44% of the population has
been  double­jabbed.  Millions  more  have
gained  some  resistance  because  of  previ­
ous infection. A national sero­survey con­
ducted in June and July found that 68% of
Indians  already  carried  covid  antibodies.
More  recent  antibody  surveys  revealed
even  higher  levels  of  exposure:  87%  in
Mumbai  in  August  and  97%  in  October  in
Delhi. Such studies cannot tell whether the
antibodies  came  through  vaccination  or
previous infection. But 80% of children in
the Delhi study were found to be carrying
antibodies.  Since  under­18s  became  eligi­
ble  for  vaccination  only  on  January  3rd,
this suggests that exposure to the virus has
been extremely widespread. 
In other words, despite a failure to pro­
vide booster shots—the government belat­
edly declared it would start supplying what
it  quaintly  calls  “precautionary  doses”  for
vulnerable  groups  only  on  January  10th—
Indians  may  enjoy  a  level  of  “hybrid  im­
munity”  comparable  to  countries  with
higher  vaccination  rates.  This  profile  is
similar to that of South Africa, where Omi­
cron was first detected and where the wave
is now receding. Epidemiologists are hop­
ing that in India, too, the variant may prove
to be less deadly than was at first feared. 
There are other reasons for cautious op­
timism. India’s medical system is relative­
ly well prepared. Last year’s nightmare pro­
vided  valuable  lessons.  Doctors  say  their
teams  are  now  more  efficient  as  well  as

betterequipped.Disgracedbycatastrophic

shortfallsinmedicaloxygen,thegovern­

menthasmassivelyincreasedsupplyand

streamlineddistribution.Dozensofhospi­

talsnowhavetheirownproductionunits,

andthecountry’soverallcapacityissaidto

havegrownby50%.Thenetworkofprivate

reliefgroupsthatsprangintoactionlast

year,providingeverythingfromfreemeals

toambulanceservicestooxygenconcen­

trators,isalsoreadyforredeployment.

Thesameoldstory

ButevenasevidencegrowsthatOmicronis

indeedlesslikelytocauseseverediseaseor

deaththanothercovidvariants,doctorsal­

sowarnofdangers.ThesheersizeofIn­

dia’spopulation,combinedwithcrowded

living conditions and theprevalence of

factorssuchashighratesofmalnutrition,

diabetesandtuberculosis,couldstillplace

millionsathighrisk.Asyetunprotectedby

boostershots,front­lineworkersarepar­

ticularlyexposed.AtthebestoftimesIndia

hastoofewdoctors,andtoomanyconcen­

tratedinbigcities.Evenwithmildersymp­

tomsandquickerrecoveries,a floodofin­

fectionsamongmedicalstaffcouldcripple

thehealthcaresystem.

By January 5th hospitals across the

country had started recording growing

staff shortages, prompting the government

to cancel holidays and shorten quarantine

rules  for  infected  medics.  The  Supreme

Court also speeded up hearings about quo­

ta rules for poor or low­caste medical stu­

dents, which have stalled the induction of

tens of thousands of badly needed hospital

interns. “Getting reports of more and more

health­care  workers  testing  positive,”

tweeted a frustrated doctor from one rapid­

ly  filling  covid  unit.  “We  needed  boosters

much  before  this  wave  started...Nobody

listens or understands.”

This doctor is not the only medical pro­

fessionalconcernedaboutinadequateor

misguidedgovernmentpolicy.Lastyear’s

waveleftbureaucratsandpoliticiansred­

faced. They boasted about Indian­made

vaccineswhilefailingtosupplyenoughto

Indians,anddawdledovercrucialneeds

suchasoxygenorthereleaseofdataabout

thevirus.MostegregiouslyNarendraMo­

di,theprimeminister,andothertopmem­

bersofhispartyencouragedhugereligious

gatheringsandcampaignedvigorouslyin

stateelections,holdinggiantpublicrallies

inspiteoftheobviouslyspreadingvirus.

Thisyear’srisingwaveagaincoincides

withheatedelectionbattlesinseveralIn­

dian states. Even as politicians ordered

schoolsshutandgatheringsbanned,their

ownrallieshavegoneahead.InUttarPra­

desh,India’smost populousstateanda

crucialoneforMrModitoholdinadvance

of the next national elections in 2024,

barely30%ofadultsarefullyvaccinated.

Campaigninghasneverthelessproceeded

uninterrupted, with the prime minister

himself repeatedly appearing in crowds

withouta mask;onJanuary2nditwasto

inaugurate a“sportsuniversity”,andon

January9thheisscheduledtoaddressa

“megarally”inthestatecapital,Lucknow.

Notthatoppositionpoliticiansareset­

tinga betterexample.Thecentralgovern­

ment  complains  that  states  have  touched

only a fraction of the $3bn it earmarked for

them to spend on preparations for a third

wave. Only a day after marching unmasked

through throngs at a rally in another poll­

bound  state,  Punjab,  Arvind  Kejriwal,

whose Aam Aadmi Party is challenging Mr

Modi,  tested  positive  for  covid.  The  Con­

gress  party,  meanwhile,  only  cancelled  a

series of girls’ marathons in Uttar Pradesh,

where  its  campaign  is  targeting  women

voters, aftera crush at one event. Pandemic

be damned,it seems: India’s political show

must go on.n

Warning signs

Mumbai, India, covid-19

Source:MunicipalCorporationofGreaterMumbai

15,000

12,000

9,000

6,000

,000

0

2021 2022

JDNOSAJJMAMFJ

Daily new cases

Delta wave

Seven-day moving average

25

20

15

10

5

0

2021 2022

JDNOSAJJMAMFJ

Daily test positivity rate, %

availableData not Seven-day moving average

Déjà vu all over again