The Economist (2022-01-08)

34 Asia The Economist January 8th 2022

Myanmar’scivilwar

Goodbye to all that

A

nge laytried  to  contain  his  anxiety

one  morning  last  July  as  he,  his  wife

and  their  daughter  drove  off  the  military

base  where  they  lived.  A  sergeant  in  the

Burmese  army,  Mr  Ange  Lay  had  received

permission  from  his  superiors  to  visit  a

relative. Instead, he and his family wended

their way to territory controlled by a rebel

group,  changing  cars  several  times  en

route to shake off any followers. 

Mr Ange Lay had been dissatisfied with

life  in  the  army,  or  the  Tatmadaw  as  it  is

known,  for  years.  Officers  treated  low­

ranking  soldiers  like  their  servants.  Any­

one  who  complained  got  a  punch  in  the

head or time in a cell. We “lived in fear”, he

says.  And  after  toiling  in  the  notoriously

corrupt army for 15 years, Mr Ange Lay had

little to show for it. “The army is taking the

country  down  with  it,”  he  recalls  telling  a

fellow soldier when he learnt that the Tat­

madaw had seized power in a coup. Even­

tually he decided to defect. 

There are many others like Mr Ange Lay.

Since  the  coup,  some  2,000  soldiers  and

6,000  police  officers  have  fled  to  territory

controlled by rebel forces, according to the

National Unity Government (nug), a shad­

ow  government  made  up  of  deposed  par­

liamentarians which helps organise resis­

tance to the junta. It is likely that other sol­

diers  have  gone  into  hiding  or  fled  the

country.  Many  of  those  who  have  crossed

over to the resistance have been helped by

People’s Embrace and People’s Soldiers, or­

ganisations started by former soldiers who

help troops flee. Both co­ordinate their ac­

tivities with the nugand some of the sym­

pathetic  ethnic­minority  rebel  groups  in

the country’s borderlands. 

Soldiers who contact them, through an

encrypted  messaging  app,  have  either  al­

ready decided to defect or are considering

it.  Volunteers,  many  of  whom  are  former

soldiers themselves, urge fence­straddlers

to consider how future generations of Bur­

mese will think of them if they remain in

the army. They provide would­be defectors

with instructions on how to locate “liberat­

ed” territory and help them get there. Once

they  have  arrived  they  are  provided  with

food,  housing,  a  stipend  and  medical  at­

tention, funded by the nug and donations

from the public.

“[The]  defection  programme  is  vital,”

says Yee Mon, the nug’s defence minister,

arguing  that  it  may  help  bring  about  the

downfall  of  the  junta  and  in  a  way  that

S INGAPORE

A growing number of soldiers are

deserting the Burmese army

Pacificrelations

RAAring to go

W

henabeshinzovisitedAustraliain

2014, he becamethefirstJapanese

leadertoaddressitsparliament.Relations

betweenthetwocountrieshavesinceblos­

somed.In 2018 MalcolmTurnbull,Austra­

lia’sthen­primeminister,posteda celebra­

toryselfieofhimselfwithMrAbeandtheir

wives after salvaging the Trans­Pacific

Partnership (tpp), a big trade deal that

Americahadditched.Beforethepandem­

ic,AussietouristsflockedtoJapaneseski

resorts. Japan wasthefirstcountrythat

Scott Morrison, the current Australian

leader,visitedafterthepandemicstarted.

OnJanuary6thMrMorrisonandJapan’s

newprimeminister,KishidaFumio,helda

virtualsummittosigna long­awaitedtrea­

tytoimprovesecurityco­operation.

Chinahasdonemuchtopushthetwo

together. When territorial disputes be­

tweenJapanandChinaflaredupin2005,

Australiasawit as“abilateralproblem,and

wedidn’twanttobedrawnintothatpro­

blem”,saysBruceMiller,a formerAustra­

lianambassadortoJapan.AndwhenOtsu­

kaTaku,a Japaneselawmakerfromtherul­

ingLiberalDemocraticParty,madehisfirst

officialvisittoAustraliain2013,herecalls

being“shocked”attheextentofChinese

influence among his Australian peers.

Sincethen,thesituationhas“drastically

changed”,saysMrOtsuka.Thesedays,Aus­

traliasharesmanyofJapan’sinsecurities

aboutChineseexpansionism.Ithasalso

experiencedChina’seconomiccoercionin

thewakeofitscallforanindependentin­

quiryintotheoriginsofthepandemic.

Yetit isnotonlyChina’saggressionthat

hasbroughtJapanandAustraliacloser,but

alsoconcern aboutAmerican reliability,

says ShiroArmstrong of AustralianNa­

tional University in Canberra. Even as

Americademurs,JapanandAustraliahave

continuedtochampionfreetrade:along

with the cptpp, as the revived tpp is

known,theycollaboratedontheRegional

Comprehensive Economic Partnership,

anotherbigAsiantradedeal,whichcame

intoeffectonJanuary1st.Theyareenhanc­

ingsecuritytieswithotherpartnerstoo,

bothasa meansofsupplementingAmeri­

can power and ofkeeping America en­

gagedbycontributingmore. Co­operation

withIndiahasgrown,inpartthroughthe

Quad,a groupingthatalsoincludesAmer­

ica.BritishwarshipsvisitedJapanin2021;

Australiainkedaukus, a newsecuritytrea­

tywithAmericaandBritain.

Japan and Australia have in recent years

also ramped up bilateral contacts between

their  armed  forces.  The  Reciprocal  Access

Agreement  (raa),  the  pact  signed  this

week, cements the ever closer security re­

lationship.Theraacreates  a  legal  frame­

workforthetwomilitaries  to  operate  in

andaroundeachothers’ territories, a pro­

cessthatusedtorequire  reams  of  paper­

workandlongperiods  of  planning.  That

willspurmorefrequent and more realistic

jointtraining,saysMr Otsuka, who chairs

the securitycommittee  in  Japan’s  lower

house.Itisthefirstsuch  arrangement  Ja­

panhaswithanypartner other than Amer­

ica.ForAustralia,theagreement will have

more immediate practical  significance

than aukus, reckons  Nick  Bisley  of  La

TrobeUniversityinMelbourne.

A long andfruitful  commercial  rela­

tionshipunderliesthe closer strategic ties.

Japanhaslongbought loads of Australia’s

rawmaterials,including iron ore and coal,

andspentheavily on  the  infrastructure,

suchasmines,tosecure them: it is Austra­

lia’s second­largestsource  of  foreign  in­

vestment and its third­largest  trading

partner.Australia,inturn, is Japan’s largest

energysupplier.Coaland gas are the core,

but both countries have  high  hopes  for

Australianhydrogenplaying a similar role

astheyeyedecarbonisation. 

Yetmuchmuststill be done to build on

thenewfoundcloseness. While the raael­

evatesJapanandAustralia’s  security  part­

nership,itisfarfrom  a  formal  alliance.

Both governments will  also  need  to  do

moretoreorienttheenergy trade towards

greener sources. The  risk,  says  Melanie

Brock,a Tokyo­based  Australian  business

consultant, is“that we  assume  that  be­

cause we’reclose that  we  don’t  have  to

workatit.”Realisingtherelationship’s po­

tentialwillrequiremorethan ski trips and

high­profilesummitry.n

S YDNEY AND TOKYO

Wary of China, Japan and Australia are

cosying up to each other

The best of mates