42 Middle East & Africa The Economist January 8th 2022
DiscontentinSaudiArabiaBubbling below the surface
O
ndecember30ththeauthoritiesin
Saudi Arabia stuck notices to the
shrines in Mecca and Medina, Islam’s holi
est cities, telling worshippers to stay two
metres apart, lest they spread covid19. But
Muhammad bin Salman, the kingdom’s de
facto ruler (pictured), seems less keen on
imposing restrictions elsewhere. His men
have been drawing crowds to concert halls
and fairgrounds in other cities. A govern
mentendorsed rave last month brought
together 700,000 young Saudis to dance
for four days. “This kingdom is preventing
virtue and promoting vice,” says a teacher
in Medina’s quiet city centre.
Publicopinion polls are rare in Saudi
Arabia. So it is tough to gauge the backlash
against Prince Muhammad’s efforts to
open up and reform one of the world’s
most closed and intolerant countries. But
soundings from inside the kingdom indi
cate that there are at least three unhappy
groups: Salafists, who espouse a funda
mentalist version of Islam; princes from
the ruling House of Saud; and ordinary
Saudis who liked things better the way they
were. Only repression and fear prevent
them from trying to unseat Prince Muham
mad and turn back the clock.
Start with the Salafists, who fume that
Prince Muhammad has broken an alliance
between them and the House of Saud dat
ing back three centuries. The prince has
curtailed the powers of thereligious po
lice, who can no longer force shops andrestaurantstoclose fivetimes a day for
prayer, or prevent men and women from
greeting each other with kisses on the
cheek. Officials in Riyadh, the capital, dic
tate Friday sermons. Preachers who are
popular on social media have been banned
from tweeting anything but praise for the
prince’s achievements.
Some Saudis still spread critical Salafist
commentary by word of mouth. The clerics
are said to have condemned the govern
mentsponsored winter festival, featuring
rides, games and music, in Riyadh. They
accuse Prince Muhammad of playing God.
The critics are “like ants. Their kingdom is
underground,” says a Saudi religious com
mentator in the western city of Jeddah.
“The prince has closed their mouths, but
he hasn’t ended their kingdom.”
Many royals are upset, too. They long
had the power to petition the king, and had
plenty of money to spend on the public and
themselves. But Prince Muhammad has
hobbled the aristocracy. He locked a num
ber of prominent princes (and many busi
nessmen) in a luxury hotel in 2017, shaking
them down for cash and assets. Other
princes complain of similar treatment, mi
nus the hotel stay, as well as cuts to their
perks (such as free flights, utilities and
medical care). It has become harder for
them to grab commissions on government
contracts. In general, they say, Prince Mu
hammad has turned a more consensual
system of politics into oneman rule. Many Saudis have been happy to see
corrupt princes taken down a peg. Others
are thrilled with Prince Muhammad’s ex
pansion of personal freedoms. But some
are uncomfortable with all the change. The
sight of girls studying with boys in primary
schools has made parents uneasy. Men of
ten see women’s empowerment as their
own disempowerment. In the old days, “if I
reported my daughter for leaving at night
without my permission, they’d return her
in handcuffs,” says a former soldier. “Now
if you try to stop her, she complains to the
police and they detain you.”
Some Saudis believe that Prince Mu
hammad, rather than replacing religious
fanaticism with moderation, is jettisoning
religion altogether. “Like Europe, he’s
throwing God out with the church,” says a
Sufi mystic in Medina.
The prince’s economic policies are add
ing to the discontent. Businessmen com
plain that the prince is using the king
dom’s vast sovereignwealth fund and oth
er royal entities to crowd out the private
sector. Subsidies have gone down, while
taxes, fees and fines have gone up. A cab
driver notes that the statecontrolled price
of petrol, once cheaper than water, has
quadrupled on Prince Muhammad’s watch.
(Economists and environmentalists ap
plaud this.) There is little accountability.
The prince and his fading father, King Sal
man, have ended the practice of hosting
majlises, or weekly councils, where Saudis
could appeal to their ruler.
Will anything come of all this unhappi
ness? Few believe the preachers will re
main silent for ever. Some wonder if a Sau
di version of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomei
ni, who led the revolt against the shah’s
rule in Iran, might emerge. A former senior
official invokes the memory of King Faisal,
who was assassinated by his nephew in- “Prince Muhammad knows what the
family can do,” he says. “They won’t forgive
him.” Others hope that President Joe Biden
will stand in the way of the prince’s succes
sion. Without Prince Muhammad in
charge, some analysts think his reforms
would be reversed. “Change is imposed
from above and has sadly not established
grassroots,” says one.
But these scenarios seem unlikely.
Prince Muhammad’s repression appears to
be working. Royals who question his ac
tions are under house arrest (including
two former crown princes). Thousands of
preachers are behind bars, say dissidents,
including Salman alOdah, who boasted
14m followers on Twitter. Critics of the
prince have been cowed. Even in London
they turn off their phones before voicing
their concerns. “Saudi Arabia has become a
fullblown surveillance state,” says Thom
as Hegghammer, an expert on extremism.
“With the technology available, I don’t
think a revolt or a coup is possible.”n
M EDINA
Many Saudis are seething at Muhammad bin Salman’s reforms.
Can they do anything about them?