Strategic Position 175
for them declines after a start-up period. Institutions are enabled to set tuition
themselves and to keep the funds they save in annual operations but are expected
to generate resources for repair and maintenance of their physical plants. Financial
aid funds for low-income students are increased by the state, though it is expected
that the university will share the costs through fund-raising. Incentives for per-
formance in designated areas are periodically defined and funded by the state by
one-time incentive awards, such as matching gifts to endow professorships.
The Competitive Marketplace
The third scenario shares many features of the second. The decisive differ-
ence is that the state’s political leadership now believes deeply in privatization.
The scenario also reflects a latent resentment toward higher education that has
taken hold in the media, the legislature, and the governor’s office. Substantial
new levels of autonomy, as well as significantly reduced funding, are provided for
public institutions. In effect, the relationship between the state and its institu-
tions is conceived as contractual rather than as statutory. While the state does
not disavow its legal control and responsibility, it believes that all agencies,
including institutions of higher education, have to function on a market-driven,
competitive basis. Financing for all facilities is now on a strictly one-to-one
matching basis, with student fees or private fund-raising an essential part of the
funding equation. As intense competition for dollars and students takes hold,
some institutions fare well and raise their tuitions significantly, while other suffer
since they cannot increase revenues in their markets. A gradual decline takes
place in the number of student spaces available in the four-year system. as funds
for the expansion of facilities and programs are not available. Noting the quality
of the state’s community colleges, the availability of low-cost education from a
number of new providers, and the easy accessibility of Web-based education, the
state’s leadership is not disturbed by the trend.
Scenario Analysis
Having developed these scenarios, Adams University now has a set of templates
against which to assess various aspects of its strategies and goals. Its aspiration
to be the state’s leader in applied research is compatible, even desirable, in each
of the scenarios. The analysis also reveals that Adams must make it a priority to
expand its staff and its capacity to secure grants from the government, foundations
and corporations, and donations from individuals. Enlarged financial self-reliance
is an important expectation in each of the scenarios.
Other strategies can also be tested and modified. The project to develop a
core competency in program assessment also proves to be an essential goal in
each case. Because of the near certainty that success will depend on capacities to
perform well in competitive markets for students, resources, and recognition, the
ability to demonstrate achievement will become increasingly important. Thus,
the assessment project moves up the ladder of priorities for funding. Each of the