The Observer
2 09.01.22 News
Looming polls
cause Tory
‘angst’ as cost
of living soars
A cost of living crisis is “driving
angst” among Conservative MPs
about spring’s local elections, senior
party fi gures are warning, as an over-
whelming majority of voters in a sur-
vey reported that they had seen their
costs rise faster than their income.
With the Treasury examining an
expansion of a scheme designed to
help the poorest with their energy
bills, infl uential Tories are already
saying that the plan will be too nar-
row and that the party will suffer big
losses in May’s elections.
The elections, which take place
across London, metropolitan bor-
oughs and some county councils,
are being regarded as the next major
source of political danger for Boris
Johnson. MPs are sounding the alarm
because infl ationary pressures are set
to peak just weeks before voting takes
place. Some Tories are already warn-
ing they will try to engineer a parlia-
mentary clash with the chancellor,
R ishi Sunak, to force him into action.
“I think it’s fair to say that the cost
of living is one of the things that’s
actually driving angst amongst MPs,”
said Lord Hayward , the Tory peer and
respected pollster.
The MPs are conscious that the
elections will be happening in the
wake of increases in energy and
national insurance charges due to
come in three or four weeks earlier.
“Large numbers of MPs have never
been in a parliament where the gov-
ernment has been 15 points behind.
This for them is a new experience to
be even 6% or 7% behind, though the
last two opinion polls have actually
been better for the Tories,” Hayward
said. “But certainly there is an angst
amongst MPs who, confronted by 6%
to 8% defi cits, are looking towards
their local elections .”
The news comes as an Opinium
poll for the Observer suggests house-
holds are already noticing price infl a-
tion. About 70% of voters said they
ha d seen their cost of living increase
more than their income over the last
12 months, despite reports of pay
rises. A majority who voted Tory at the
last election (57%) said they backed
removing VAT from energy bills.
One in eight voters (12%) would
now describe their fi nancial situa-
tion as “struggling”, up from 9% from
the end of lockdown in April. A huge
majority of the public say they havenoticed price rises. About 86% have
noticed a rise in the overall cost of liv-
ing, 83% a rise in grocery bills, 80% a
rise in energy bills and 59% a rise in
council tax.
A likely remedy from the govern-
ment will be an expansion of the £
Warm Homes Discount aimed at the
poorest households. However, Tories
are already warning that expanding
the scheme will be insuffi cient: some
even suggested they would threaten
to vote against this year’s budget
without fi rmer action. “That is only
for those on benefi ts, predominantly,”
said one infl uential fi gure. “The just-
about-managing are not helped. ”
The government is receiving guid-
ance that infl ation could rise to as
high as 7% if it fails to take action.
Average fuel bills could rise from
£1,300 to about £2,000 a year.
“The whole timing of this cost of
living increase, whether it’s caused by
world factors such as energy prices or
whether it’s caused by domestic fac-
tors such as increased taxes, is coming
at a very awkward time,” said another
party veteran. “Not only the local gov-
ernment elections, but just at a time
when really everybody wants to sortFrom Line of
Duty to wartime
espionage with
Kelly Macdonald
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Business, this section, pp50-
of get beyond Covid. We’re all hop-
ing that after this winter is over and
Omicron doesn’t turn out as bad as
everybody feared, we want to emerge
from that and start to get our lives
back. This whole cost of living thing
- I think it’s going to become quite
tricky for the government.”
Energy regulator Ofgem is set to
announce a rise of up to £700 in its
price cap at the start of next month.
Bills would increase from April, with
the local elections set for 5 May.
Tor ies have been demanding a cut
to green levies, the end of VAT on
energy bills or a reversal of a coming
increase in national insurance to ease
the pressure. Labour has so far backed
cutting VAT on energy bills, but is also
under pressure to go further.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said there
was now a “growing revolt in former
Conservative heartlands ”. He added:
“As we saw in North Shropshire, even
lifelong Conservative voters are fed
up with Johnson’s incompetence and
lack of decency. His failure to act on
the cost of living crisis is simply add-
ing fuel to the fi re.”